129 Hickory Dr Unit 129 Hickory Ln · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,287 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1980 Average condition 0.51 ac lot Est $268k · 12% over $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream chalet in the amenity-rich community of Hemlock Farms! This charming three-bedroom, two-bath home offers a perfect blend of comfort and style. The main floor features a cozy living room highlighted by a stunning brick front wood-burning fireplace. The Living Room seamlessly flows into the dining area and a well-appointed kitchen, equipped with a newer oven/range and dishwasher. The main floor has a large bedroom with a convenient bathroom with shower and laundry making everyday living a breeze. Split units throughout the home provide efficient heating and cooling, ensuring year-round comfort. Venture upstairs to discover two generously sized bedrooms and a full bath. E

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Brick front
• Newer oven range

Tags

• BRICK FRONT
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• NEWER OVEN RANGE
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• SPLIT UNITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual association fee reported and one-time association fee reported
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Association amenities include pool, indoor pool, clubhouse, fitness center, recreation/game room, tennis and basketball courts, trails, playground, sauna, dog park, beach rights and access, trash service, security, gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Circular unpaved driveway
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential zoning; Located in a gated community
• Construction: Above-grade finished living area reported
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch with screened side porch; Fire pit; Community pool; Wooded lot; Paved road with private maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Electric range/oven
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Ductless heating and cooling (heat pump); Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Fireplace present
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located on main level/in a bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $806 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.55%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,696
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Forest Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+4%)	2mo	$280,000	$208	83
304 Forest Drive Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+4%)	11mo	$181,000	$135	75
123 Basswood Ln E	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+3%)	8mo	$512,500	$388	64
105 Tupelo Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-6%)	0mo	$360,000	$296	63
800 Bluestone Ct N Unit 800 Bluestone Court North	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,202 (-7%)	1mo	$276,000	$230	62
111 Blueridge Ln	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-9%)	9mo	$215,000	$183	55
806 Rimrock Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,142 (-11%)	4mo	$300,000	$263	50
147 Willow Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,228 (-5%)	24mo	$191,625	$156	49
103 Saddlebrook Ln	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,222 (-5%)	8mo	$210,000	$172	45
125 Lone Pine Bay Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	22mo	$300,000	$208	44
103 Blue Shelf Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+11%)	12mo	$311,000	$218	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $214,377
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.06×
• Total profit: $591,370
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,952 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$830
• Net cashflow: $806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,932

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 Forest Dr Blooming Grove, PA	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	1d	1	0.14mi
811 Hickory Ct Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	1d	1	0.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $299,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,794
• − Management: −$3,794
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $5,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,298
• After-tax cash flow: $8,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This charming three-bedroom home in Hemlock Farms requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn and need replacement or refinishing.
• Minor Primary bathroom shower curtain — Old and could be replaced with a new one.
• Moderate Exterior siding — Worn and may need repainting or replacement.
• Moderate Living area hardwood flooring — Worn and could be refinished or replaced.
• Minor Paint in living areas — Faded and could be touched up with fresh paint.
• Minor Windows — Sealing may be needed to improve energy efficiency and appearance.
• Minor HVAC/mechanicals — No visible signs of major issues, but may need cleaning or minor repairs.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint and updated cabinets would improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both Replacing or updating windows — New windows would improve energy efficiency and curb appeal.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Trimming and improving landscaping would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters.
• Rental HVAC system cleaning and minor repairs — A clean and well-maintained HVAC system would improve tenant satisfaction and reduce maintenance costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn and need replacement or refinishing.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Primary bathroom shower curtain · Old and could be replaced with a new one.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Worn and may need repainting or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Living area hardwood flooring · Worn and could be refinished or replaced.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Paint in living areas · Faded and could be touched up with fresh paint.	Minor	$500–3,000
Windows · Sealing may be needed to improve energy efficiency and appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible signs of major issues, but may need cleaning or minor repairs.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$11,000–57,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Fresh paint and updated cabinets would improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Replacing or updating windows — New windows would improve energy efficiency and curb appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Trimming and improving landscaping would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC system cleaning and minor repairs — A clean and well-maintained HVAC system would improve tenant satisfaction and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $320,000 PWMLS