2216 Parrotts Ferry Rd #37 · Columbia, CA 95370

$10,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Est $10k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $942 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,080 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia Union (rural): math 22% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #383 of 517 in CA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $300 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $10,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 12.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 119.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 403.85%
• DSCR: 18.97
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $9,900
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2216 Parrotts Ferry Rd #37	0.00mi	1/1.0	550 (0%)	1mo	$10,000	$18	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.86×
• Total profit: $58,415
• Equity at exit: $1,491

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 46.80×
• Total profit: $128,226
• Equity at exit: $865

Cash invested: $2,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$12 /mo · $150/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $942

Break-even live

Break-even rent $87

Max offer price $10,000

Occupancy floor 21%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,500
• Closing costs: $300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   listed $10,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$560
• − Property taxes: −$150
• − Insurance: −$50
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,229
• − Management: −$1,229
• − Depreciation: −$291
• Taxable income: $11,854
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,845
• After-tax cash flow: $8,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia Union
• NCES district ID: 0609480
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,469
• Composite: 22.83/100
• National rank: #8013
• State rank: #383 of 517 in CA

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1080
• US rank: #25332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-12 Listed $10,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR