120 SE Arapahoe Ln · Watertown, FL 32025

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1964 0.33 ac lot Est $266k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 3BR/2BA brick home in a quiet Lake City neighborhood! Offering approx. 2,072 SF, this home features an open, light-filled layout with updated interior finishes and a spacious kitchen ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Flexible floor plan includes multiple living areas and a converted garage—perfect for a 4th bedroom, office, or bonus room. Situated on a . 33-acre corner lot with mature landscaping, front and rear porch areas, and plenty of outdoor space. No HOA or deed restrictions. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and medical facilities.

Key facts

• Flexible floor plan
• Spacious kitchen
• Converted garage

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• UPDATED INTERIOR FINISHES
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• CONVERTED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.33 acres (122 x 146); Zoning: RSF

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-story residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Shingle roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Screened patio/porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#798 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $265k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,215 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.99%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,608
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 SE Ibis Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,745 (+0%)	8mo	$257,050	$147	77
132 SE Tribble St	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,800 (+4%)	3mo	$274,900	$153	72
195 SE Emma Pl	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,748 (+1%)	4mo	$232,000	$133	71
231 SE Golf Club Ave	0.46mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,696 (-2%)	6mo	$119,000	$70	62
434 SE Rosewood Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,511 (-13%)	11mo	$265,000	$175	56
465 SE Rosewood Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-14%)	6mo	$255,000	$171	54
1871 SE Baya Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-9%)	10mo	$175,000	$111	54
795 SE Defender Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,568 (-10%)	8mo	$193,500	$123	53
772 SE Defender Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,509 (-13%)	8mo	$170,000	$113	49
212 SE Willow Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,878 (+8%)	10mo	$325,000	$173	48
1104 SE Magnolia Loop	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-8%)	4mo	$245,655	$154	46
144 SE Wilderness Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-13%)	12mo	$275,000	$182	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $124,606
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $382,303
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,409/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,153

Max offer price $210,452

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $265,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $265,000 Active
18. 2025-12-13
    price $279,900
19. 2025-10-09
    price $284,900
20. 2025-08-21
    price $294,900
21. 2025-06-26
    listed $299,000 Active
22. 2023-05-17
    soldstatus $145,000
23. 2004-08-27
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,409 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,409 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,409
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$8,525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,046
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #18481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+165.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $265,000 NFMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $279,900 NFMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $284,900 NFMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $294,900 NFMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $299,000 NFMLS
• 2023-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,409 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.