402 Lucaya Loop · Four Corners, FL 33897

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,227 sqft · Condo public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2003 $596/mo HOA · 29% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to paradise at Bahama Bay Resort & Spa — a tropical-style waterfront resort nestled along the shores of Lake Davenport and just minutes from Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando Resort, shopping, dining, and Orlando’s world-famous attractions. Spanning more than 70 acres, this sought-after vacation destination offers resort-style amenities including waterfront pools, on-site dining, spa services, walking trails, and professional on-site management, creating the perfect blend of relaxation and investment opportunity. This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath ground-floor condo offers both comfort and convenience, with no stairs to climb and easy access to one of

Key facts

• Ground floor condo
• Spa services
• Waterfront resort

Tags

• WATERFRONT RESORT
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• ON SITE DINING
• SPA SERVICES
• WALKING TRAILS
• GROUND FLOOR CONDO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is furnished
• Financial info: Total annual association fees $7,152; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $596; HOA covers 24-hour guard, cable TV, internet, pool, water, sewer, trash, management, maintenance (structure and grounds), pest control, private road, recreational facilities, security, and common area taxes; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, playground, park, dog park, and owned association recreation; Association name: FIRST RESIDENTIAL SERVICE; Association fees required; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Single-story (one level); Faces west; Unit on first floor
• Construction: Concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building number 04402
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living room/dining room combination; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (20.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $156 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,260 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-30,577
• Equity at exit: $49,428

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-47,589
• Equity at exit: $55,027

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33897

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,268/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$596
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,354

Max offer price $151,260

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
226 Hillcrest Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1488	$2,500	$1.68	23d	1	0.06mi
304 New Providence Promenade Unit 304 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,495	$1.22	23d	1	0.15mi
603 New Providence Promenade #603 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,550	$1.26	23d	1	0.22mi
515 Corso Ln Davenport, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1402	$2,495	$1.78	3d	13	0.26mi
309 Catfish Dr E Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,895	$1.30	23d	1	0.52mi
1301 Tuscan Hills Blvd Unit 9406 1 Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,200	$1.94	23d	1	0.53mi
50989 Highway 27 #108 Davenport, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	21d	1	0.59mi
774 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	988	$1,750	$1.77	23d	1	0.63mi
807 Chelsea Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1076	$1,450	$1.35	23d	1	0.67mi
183 Ashbourne Way Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,200	$2.12	3d	35	0.68mi
222 Bexley Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	2.5	1313	$2,000	$1.52	23d	1	0.72mi
2010 Limetta DR Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,429	$2.06	3d	15	0.77mi
315 Allison Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,400	$2.03	23d	1	0.81mi
1492 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1435	$1,950	$1.36	14d	1	0.89mi
1492 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,995	$1.39	23d	1	0.89mi
1556 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,950	$1.42	3d	1	0.90mi
237 Somerset Dr Davenport, FL	2.0	1.0	1330	$1,900	$1.43	23d	1	0.90mi
904 Charo Pkwy #533 Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1437	$1,795	$1.25	14d	1	1.00mi
904 Charo Pkwy #517 Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	23d	1	1.00mi
1316 Mirabella Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1489	$2,050	$1.38	23d	1	1.05mi
631 Washington Palm Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1387	$1,450	$1.05	23d	1	1.08mi
9055 Treasure Trove Ln Kissimmee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1572	$1,900	$1.21	3d	2	1.13mi
9055 Treasure Trove Ln Kissimmee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1572	$1,900	$1.21	4d	2	1.13mi
333 Terra Lago St Unit 1031923P Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1453	$2,170	$1.49	3d	1	1.14mi
217 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,750	$1.45	3d	1	1.25mi
400 Australian Way Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,600	$1.19	14d	1	1.25mi
1042 Calabria Ave Unit 1261192P Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1485	$5,169	$3.48	14d	1	1.25mi
3050 Pirates Retreat Ct #208 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$1,600	$1.11	2d	1	1.25mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1090	$1,600	$1.47	14d	1	1.25mi
2929 Fan Palm Dr Unit 1 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1090	$1,600	$1.47	14d	1	1.25mi
623 Coconut Palm Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	23d	1	1.26mi
2918 Fan Palm Dr Unit Main Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	23d	1	1.28mi
761 Caribbean Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	3d	1	1.29mi
3060 Pirates Retreat Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1445	$1,875	$1.30	7d	2	1.29mi
564 Orchid Dr Unit A Davenport, FL	2.0	2.0	1348	$1,500	$1.11	23d	1	1.30mi
711 Caribbean Dr Unit Main Unit Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	23d	1	1.31mi
515 Orchid Dr Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,650	$1.22	23d	1	1.32mi
536 Caribbean Dr Unit A Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,650	$1.16	23d	1	1.35mi
402 Orchid Dr Unit Main Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	23d	1	1.35mi
161 Coco Plum Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1364	$1,850	$1.36	23d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $596 · $7,152/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $189,900 Active
16. 2020-09-02
    soldstatus $135,000
17. 2016-06-17
    soldstatus $96,000
18. 2014-05-27
    soldstatus $77,000
19. 2008-07-02
    soldstatus $124,900
20. 2005-04-26
    soldstatus $204,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,268 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,268 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,268
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − HOA: −$7,152
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$5,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,342
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Four Corners

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #453
• US rank: #8218

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Four Corners, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 27,422
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,159
• Household income: $70,982
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 926.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 21% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2905
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.69%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2008-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $124,900 Public Records
• 2005-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $204,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,268 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.