The Trenton Plan · Lillington, NC 27546

$193,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,287 sqft · SingleFamily · 142 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Trenton welcomes you with a covered front porch that leads into a foyer with an optional powder room. The open kitchen, with an optional island, flows seamlessly into a generous family room. Upstairs, the owners suite includes a walk-in closet and a private bath with a garden tub. Two secondary bedrooms include a shared bath and easy access to the convenient second-floor laundry room. The Trenton townhome offers a perfect blend of comfort and convenience, making it an ideal choice for modern living.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• GARDEN TUB
• SECOND-FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,287 (plan)
• Financial info: List price $193,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas available; Electric service available
• Home design: The Trenton (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Plan home in Lillington, NC

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan); The Trenton floorplan

🏗️ New construction. The $193,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $287,001.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-601 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lillington-Shawtown Elementary (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 694 students, 100% FRL); Harnett Central Middle (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #323 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 1,024 students, 63% FRL); Harnett Central High (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 1,474 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 51% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 834 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,632 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.97%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,001
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Oyster Tabby Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,164 (-10%)	1mo	$255,230	$219	82
96 Oyster Tabby Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,164 (-10%)	2mo	$259,900	$223	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-84,744
• Equity at exit: $42,793

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-122,957
• Equity at exit: $24,815

Cash invested: $80,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27546

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 834
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$359 /mo · $4,305/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,511

Max offer price $200,067

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-402	-5% $-502	+0% $-601	+5% $-700	+10% $-799
Rent	-10% $-739	-5% $-670	+0% $-601	+5% $-532	+10% $-463
Rate	-1.0pp $-456	-0.5pp $-528	base $-601	+0.5pp $-675	+1.0pp $-751

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,750
• Closing costs: $8,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 Grove Cir Unit 102 Lillington, NC	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,725	$1.33	25d	1	1.35mi
150 Grove Cir Apt 204 Lillington, NC	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,600	$1.47	15d	1	1.39mi
170 Grove Cir Unit 302 Lillington, NC	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,575	$1.44	25d	1	1.39mi
170 Grove Cir Lillington, NC	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,625	$1.49	25d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $193,900 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $193,900 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $193,900 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $193,900 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,900 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $193,900 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $193,900 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,900 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $193,900 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $193,900 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $193,900 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $193,900 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $193,900 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $193,900 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $193,900 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $193,900 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,077
• − Property taxes: −$4,305
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$8,349
• Taxable loss: −$12,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,006
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home appears to be in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good exterior and interior, and some cosmetic updates like painting and landscaping can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Updating the interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern, increasing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Updating the interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lillington

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lillington, NC
• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 21,419
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 21,419
• Household income: $66,746
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.35%
• Current HPI: 198.2885
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B