4007 NW 38th Ln · Cape Coral, FL 33993

$299,888

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · Land · 237 Days on market

Built 2025 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1818 sqft

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Elegant cabinetry
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• ELEGANT CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE BATH
• DUAL SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable not available
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction; Faces north
• Construction: Block, concrete, and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; South exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (14 x 13); Bedroom (11 x 11); Bedroom (10 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double-hung and thermal windows; Unfurnished; Dual sinks; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Tub with shower; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 2652 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 348% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $300k implies a 413% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,736 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.04%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-73,799
• Equity at exit: $44,714

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-115,098
• Equity at exit: $25,929

Cash invested: $83,969 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33993

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 2652
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,487 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,493/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,846

Max offer price $249,794

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,972
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4115 NW 36th Ln Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,000	$1.12	23d	1	0.18mi
3812 NW 38th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1920	$2,600	$1.35	23d	1	0.26mi
3535 NW 42nd Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,145	$1.20	23d	1	0.34mi
3617 NW 38th Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1903	$2,200	$1.16	23d	1	0.45mi
3911 NW 40th Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1363	$3,500	$2.57	23d	1	0.50mi
3518 NW 44th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	2306	$2,750	$1.19	23d	1	0.60mi
4333 NW 34th Ln Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1904	$2,200	$1.16	23d	1	0.66mi
4402 NW 34th Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1904	$2,200	$1.16	23d	1	0.75mi
4333 NW 34th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1904	$2,200	$1.16	23d	1	0.75mi
4157 NW 39th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,500	$1.65	23d	1	0.78mi
4157 NW 39th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,500	$1.65	3d	1	0.78mi
4402 NW 34th Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1904	$2,200	$1.16	23d	1	0.80mi
3929 NW 42nd Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,995	$1.50	23d	1	0.84mi
3241 NW 41st Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	23d	1	0.88mi
4595 NW 34th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,195	$1.16	16d	1	0.89mi
4202 NW 32nd Ln Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	23d	1	0.90mi
4230 NW 32nd Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	14d	1	0.98mi
4129 Jacaranda Pkwy W Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2027	$2,501	$1.23	3d	1	1.03mi
4410 NW 32nd Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2347	$2,231	$0.95	3d	1	1.06mi
4240 NW 31st Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2330	$3,500	$1.50	3d	1	1.17mi
4240 NW 31st Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	2330	$3,950	$1.70	21d	1	1.17mi
4331 NW 31st Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1904	$2,200	$1.16	3d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,888 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,888 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,888 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,888 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,888 Active 229 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,888 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,888 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,888 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,888 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    price $299,888 34-char remark

    Show marketing remark (34 chars)

    4 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1818 sqft

11. 2026-05-13
    price $299,888
12. 2026-05-09
    price $304,888 34-char remark

    Show marketing remark (34 chars)

    4 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1818 sqft

13. 2026-05-08
    price $304,888
14. 2026-04-30
    price $323,990
15. 2026-04-24
    price $323,990 34-char remark

    Show marketing remark (34 chars)

    4 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1818 sqft

16. 2026-03-09
    price $314,990
17. 2026-03-08
    price $314,990 34-char remark

    Show marketing remark (34 chars)

    4 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1818 sqft

18. 2026-02-03
    price $299,990
19. 2026-01-28
    price $299,990 34-char remark

    Show marketing remark (34 chars)

    4 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1818 sqft

20. 2025-12-24
    price $317,990 34-char remark

    Show marketing remark (34 chars)

    4 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1818 sqft

21. 2025-12-23
    price $317,990
22. 2025-11-29
    listed $67,000 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Spacious 0.34-acre lot in a desirable and rapidly developing area of NW Cape Coral. This oversized homesite offers ample space for a custom residence, pool, or future investment opportunity. Located near major roadways, shopping, dining, parks, golf, and everyday conveniences, the property provides quick access to many of the area’s recreational and coastal amenities. Positioned minutes from local waterways and outdoor attractions, this location is ideal for those seeking a versatile lot with strong growth potential. Whether planning a future build or holding as an investment, this property offers flexibility and long-term value in one of Cape Coral’s expanding corridors.

23. 2025-10-23
    listed $309,990 Active
24. 2025-10-09
    listed $309,990 Active 34-char remark

    Show marketing remark (34 chars)

    4 bed | 2 bath | 2-bay | 1818 sqft

25. 2024-06-11
    soldstatus $58,500 Closed
26. 2024-06-11
    soldstatus $58,500
27. 2024-05-25
    status Pending
28. 2022-12-09
    price $61,900
29. 2022-09-01
    price $63,900
30. 2022-07-28
    price $67,900
31. 2022-02-08
    listed $69,000 Active
32. 2005-03-18
    soldstatus $89,900
33. 2004-09-10
    soldstatus $49,900
34. 2003-09-15
    soldstatus $13,500
35. 1980-07-01
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$996/yr (+$83/mo · 66.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,798
• − Property taxes: −$1,493
• − Insurance: −$6,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,388
• − Management: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$8,561
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,055
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,580
• Household income: $90,577
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 286.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 17% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.34%
• Current HPI: 337.0575
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.51%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4898.1% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $299,888 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $299,888 FORTMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $304,888 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $304,888 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $323,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $323,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $314,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $314,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $299,990 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $317,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $317,990 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-29 Listed $67,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $309,990 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $309,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 2024-06-11 Sold (MLS) $58,500 FORTMLS
• 2024-05-25 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-12-09 Price Changed $61,900 FORTMLS
• 2022-09-01 Price Changed $63,900 FORTMLS
• 2022-07-28 Price Changed $67,900 FORTMLS
• 2022-02-08 Listed $69,000 FORTMLS
• 2005-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2004-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2003-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records
• 1980-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,493 · +45.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.