1510 Lincoln Ave · Toledo, OH 43607

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1910 4,300 sqft lot $29/sqft · 44% below area Est $62k · 44% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.5 Story, 3 bedroom home with large yard. Call today to see the great opportunity this is. Added features are full basement, formal dining room, den, and more. Call today! This is a great opportunity. Buy it today.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Large yard
• Full basement

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• FULL BASEMENT
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $626 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $32,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.61%
• DSCR: 4.41
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,500
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -44.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2026 Hawthorne St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,142 (-4%)	0mo	$65,000	$57	81
1501 Fernwood Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,259 (+5%)	1mo	$60,000	$48	81
1157 W Woodruff Ave	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+0%)	2mo	$4,000	$3	73
1211 Manila St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,159 (-3%)	3mo	$45,000	$39	68
2242 Auburn Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,241 (+4%)	3mo	$85,000	$68	67
1119 Indiana Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,218 (+2%)	1mo	$50,000	$41	64
1748 Freeman St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,263 (+6%)	2mo	$83,000	$66	60
1038 Pinewood Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,203 (+1%)	3mo	$89,000	$74	60
1428 Freeman St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,084 (-9%)	2mo	$3,000	$3	60
1004 Waverly Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,241 (+4%)	2mo	$58,500	$47	58
1141 Pinewood Ave	0.62mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,228 (+3%)	5mo	$48,000	$39	58
2033 Crosswell Pl	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,328 (+11%)	1mo	$101,500	$76	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $40,320
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.1%
• Equity multiple: 12.67×
• Total profit: $114,358
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43607

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $362

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2117 Clinton St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,115	$0.89	44d	1	0.42mi
1140 Palmwood Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1292	$1,500	$1.16	44d	1	0.50mi
1026 Oakwood Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	0.66mi
1738 Milburn Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1016	$650	$0.64	23d	1	0.72mi
2347 Rosedale Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	767	$875	$1.14	44d	1	0.74mi
2322 Upton Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.83mi
915 Woodstock Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,100	$0.73	23d	1	0.83mi
1133 Parkside Blvd Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	960	$850	$0.89	44d	1	0.88mi
1919 Ottawa Dr Unit 7 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	0.93mi
1785 Tecumseh St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	930	$900	$0.97	44d	1	0.93mi
319 N Detroit Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1341	$845	$0.63	44d	1	0.95mi
2356 Torrey Hill Dr Unit 11 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$800	$0.76	44d	1	0.96mi
960 W Delaware Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,050	$0.86	23d	1	1.18mi
2037 Alvin St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,175	$0.93	44d	1	1.20mi
2030 Wyndhurst Rd Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1042	$950	$0.91	44d	1	1.22mi
625 Virginia St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$800	$0.80	44d	1	1.29mi
625 Virginia St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	14d	1	1.29mi
2535 W Bancroft St Unit 8 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	44d	1	1.31mi
3803 Monroe St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	942	$850	$0.90	44d	1	1.31mi
2637 Greenway St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1082	$900	$0.83	44d	1	1.37mi
1573 Jermain Dr Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1254	$1,195	$0.95	14d	1	1.37mi
3835 Monroe St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1002	$950	$0.95	44d	1	1.38mi
409 W Bancroft St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	730	$880	$1.21	44d	1	1.46mi
401 W Bancroft St Toledo, OH	4.0	1.0	927	$865	$0.93	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $35,000 Pending 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $35,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $35,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $35,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $35,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-04-25
   price $35,000 215-char remark

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   1.5 Story, 3 bedroom home with large yard. Call today to see the great opportunity this is. Added features are full basement, formal dining room, den, and more. Call today! This is a great opportunity. Buy it today.

7. 2026-03-17
   listed $40,000 Active 215-char remark

   Show marketing remark (215 chars)

   1.5 Story, 3 bedroom home with large yard. Call today to see the great opportunity this is. Added features are full basement, formal dining room, den, and more. Call today! This is a great opportunity. Buy it today.

8. 2026-03-15
   historical
9. 2026-02-22
   price $40,000
10. 2025-11-12
    price $45,000
11. 2025-09-14
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,108
• − Management: −$1,108
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $7,424
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,782
• After-tax cash flow: $5,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,469
• Household income: $41,335
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1157.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.58%
• Current HPI: 175.2772
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $35,000 NORIS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $40,000 NORIS
• 2026-03-15 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $40,000 NORIS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $45,000 NORIS
• 2025-09-14 Listed $50,000 NORIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,054 · +16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.