86437 Moonlit Walk Cir · Yulee, FL 32097

$379,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,051 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2017 4,356 sqft lot Est $500k · 24% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A must see in the Hideaway community! This beautifully maintained ranch style 3-bedroom, 2- bath home offers an open floor plan with backyard privacy facing a wooded lot. The inviting entry hall reveals an overhead crystal chandelier (1 of 3), and lighted ceiling fans in all three bedrooms. The dining room opens to the Great Room which leads to a screened-in lanai. Double sliders off the Great Room make inclusion of the lanai perfect for entertaining or just relaxing. The Great Room features silk drapes and a stunning crystal chandelier. The open kitchen floor plan includes spacious 42” cabinetry which provide convenient and generous storage with an alcove of cabinets opposite the 8’ island and 12” bar top. There is a pantry and laundry room adjacent to the kitchen leading to the 2-car garage. The owner’s suite features a spacious walk-in closet, tray ceiling, private ensuite with dual sinks, a soaker tub, walk-in shower, and separate water closet. Custom mirrors accent both baths. The residence is also secured by a total access alarm system. There is a community pool, playground and scenic walking trails – all easily accessible. Priced right, this property is a rare find with endless possibilities!! To show please call agent, Kathy Williams at 904=206-3030

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Backyard privacy
• Double sliders

Tags

• BACKYARD PRIVACY
• WOODED LOT
• OVERHEAD CRYSTAL CHANDELIER
• LIGHTED CEILING FANS
• SCREENED-IN LANAI
• DOUBLE SLIDERS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association: The Hideaway; Association fee $75 per month

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public sewer; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Facing west
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch with screened rear porch; Privacy fencing; Wooded lot; Paved county road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Ice maker; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Pantry; Primary bathroom with tub and separate shower; Primary bedroom on the main floor; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in Yulee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Yulee Primary School (658 students, 51% FRL); Yulee Middle School (math 73% / reading 61%, grade A-, #80 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 1,202 students, 41% FRL); Yulee High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,407 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $245k; list at $380k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,469 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $500,444
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86515 Rest Haven Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	2,062 (+0%)	1mo	$385,000	$187	93
86351 Moonlit Walk Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,017 (-2%)	3mo	$395,000	$196	89
86047 Rio Way	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,006 (-2%)	2mo	$379,999	$189	77
86645 Lazy Lake Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,833 (-11%)	3mo	$383,000	$209	66
86027 Maple Leaf Pl	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (-2%)	3mo	$399,999	$200	64
85398 Sandy Ridge Loop #0044	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,077 (+1%)	1mo	$511,900	$246	62
85398 Sandy Ridge Loop	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,077 (+1%)	1mo	$511,900	$246	62
86163 Venetian Ave	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,010 (-2%)	1mo	$399,000	$199	61
85342 Sandy Ridge Loop #0038	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,123 (+4%)	1mo	$530,000	$250	61
85342 Sandy Ridge Loop	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,123 (+4%)	1mo	$530,000	$250	61
85236 Sandy Ridge Loop #0026	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,905 (-7%)	1mo	$465,000	$244	60
85236 Sandy Ridge Loop	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,905 (-7%)	1mo	$465,000	$244	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $190,926
• Equity at exit: $342,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $573,719
• Equity at exit: $738,062

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,825 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,009/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,134

Max offer price $336,665

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
86467 Moonlit Walk Cir Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2010	$3,100	$1.54	23d	1	0.09mi
86092 Knotted Oak Way Unit Bedroom 1 Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2414	$825	$0.34	17d	1	0.54mi
86215 Buggy Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,295	$1.37	20d	1	1.00mi
78295 Saddle Rock Rd Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,191	$1.19	23d	1	1.26mi
86040 Hopper Ln Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$1,650	$0.99	17d	1	1.38mi
86131 Hopper Ln Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$1,650	$0.99	23d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $379,900 Pending 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $379,900 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $379,900 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $379,900 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $379,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-05-06
   price $379,900 1323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1323 chars)

   A must see in the Hideaway community! This beautifully maintained ranch style 3-bedroom, 2- bath home offers an open floor plan with backyard privacy facing a wooded lot. The inviting entry hall reveals an overhead crystal chandelier (1 of 3), and lighted ceiling fans in all three bedrooms. The dining room opens to the Great Room which leads to a screened-in lanai. Double sliders off the Great Room make inclusion of the lanai perfect for entertaining or just relaxing. The Great Room features silk drapes and a stunning crystal chandelier. The open kitchen floor plan includes spacious 42” cabinetry which provide convenient and generous storage with an alcove of cabinets opposite the 8’ island and 12” bar top. There is a pantry and laundry room adjacent to the kitchen leading to the 2-car garage. The owner’s suite features a spacious walk-in closet, tray ceiling, private ensuite with dual sinks, a soaker tub, walk-in shower, and separate water closet. Custom mirrors accent both baths. The residence is also secured by a total access alarm system. There is a community pool, playground and scenic walking trails – all easily accessible. Priced right, this property is a rare find with endless possibilities!! To show please call agent, Kathy Williams at 904=206-3030

7. 2026-05-04
   price $379,900
8. 2026-03-06
   listed $389,900 Active
9. 2026-03-05
   listed $389,900 Active 1323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1323 chars)

   A must see in the Hideaway community! This beautifully maintained ranch style 3-bedroom, 2- bath home offers an open floor plan with backyard privacy facing a wooded lot. The inviting entry hall reveals an overhead crystal chandelier (1 of 3), and lighted ceiling fans in all three bedrooms. The dining room opens to the Great Room which leads to a screened-in lanai. Double sliders off the Great Room make inclusion of the lanai perfect for entertaining or just relaxing. The Great Room features silk drapes and a stunning crystal chandelier. The open kitchen floor plan includes spacious 42” cabinetry which provide convenient and generous storage with an alcove of cabinets opposite the 8’ island and 12” bar top. There is a pantry and laundry room adjacent to the kitchen leading to the 2-car garage. The owner’s suite features a spacious walk-in closet, tray ceiling, private ensuite with dual sinks, a soaker tub, walk-in shower, and separate water closet. Custom mirrors accent both baths. The residence is also secured by a total access alarm system. There is a community pool, playground and scenic walking trails – all easily accessible. Priced right, this property is a rare find with endless possibilities!! To show please call agent, Kathy Williams at 904=206-3030

10. 2017-12-27
    soldstatus $245,367 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    NO CDD! The Summit offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, tiled kitchen with Corian countertops and stainless appliances. Master suite includes walk in closet, full security system & more!

11. 2017-12-27
    soldstatus $245,367

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    NO CDD! The Summit offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, tiled kitchen with Corian countertops and stainless appliances. Master suite includes walk in closet, full security system & more!

12. 2017-11-10
    listed $245,367 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    NO CDD! The Summit offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, tiled kitchen with Corian countertops and stainless appliances. Master suite includes walk in closet, full security system & more!

13. 2017-11-10
    listed $245,367

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    NO CDD! The Summit offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, tiled kitchen with Corian countertops and stainless appliances. Master suite includes walk in closet, full security system & more!

14. 2016-07-22
    historical
15. 2016-07-08
    listed $237,125

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,009 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,153 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$145/yr (+$12/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$3,009
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,712
• − Management: −$2,712
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$9,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,320
• After-tax cash flow: $-617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yulee, FL
• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+60.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $379,900 AINCAR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $379,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $389,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $389,900 AINCAR
• 2017-12-27 Sold (MLS) $245,367 AINCAR
• 2017-12-27 Sold (MLS) $245,367 realMLS
• 2017-11-10 Listed $245,367 AINCAR
• 2017-11-10 Listed $245,367 realMLS
• 2016-07-22 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2016-07-08 Listed $237,125 realMLS

Property tax history

+43.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,009 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.