Is 1288 Lonesome in Canyon Lake, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.0% cap rate and $-502/mo modeled cash flow at a $264,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1288 Lonesome?

The modeled cap rate is 4.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,686/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 34.74

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +10.6/15.0
Schools +6.1/10.0
Cash flow +6.0/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
1% rule +1.4/10.0
DSCR +0.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$264,900

1288 Lonesome · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · SingleFamily · 260 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 3,920 sqft lot $226/sqft · 7% below area Est $284k · 7% under $3/mo HOA

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss your chance to get into this amazing new build in Canyon Lake, Texas! Modern design and tasteful finishes throughout, this is an absolute gem sitting right in the heart of the hill country. There is plenty of wildlife in the area for viewing and relaxation. It is in close proximity to Canyon Lake, Comal River Tubing, the White-Water Amphitheater, hiking and more. Easy access to San Antonio, New Braunfels, and San Marcos. Don't let this one pass you by, schedule your showing today! There are also two vacant lots next door (.18 of an acre) for an additional cost of 55K combined.

Key facts

Hiking access
New build
Modern design

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (27.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (36.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $169k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.5% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Mt Valley El (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 471 students, 52% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 31% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1321 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,625 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.64% ✗
Cap rate: 4.02%
Cash-on-cash: -8.11%
DSCR: 0.64
GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $284,356
List price: $264,900
Delta: -6.84%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1316 Lonesome	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+11%)	2mo	$315,000	$242	79
801 Research	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,185 (+1%)	14mo	$335,000	$283	76
844 Canyon	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (+4%)	13mo	$269,999	$221	75
543 Scenic Ter	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,163 (-1%)	10mo	$289,900	$249	67
905 Roadrunner Spur	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+7%)	10mo	$275,000	$218	63
1127 Cedar Bnd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+12%)	5mo	$284,900	$217	63
771 Research	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,294 (+10%)	16mo	$288,900	$223	60
1312 Lavaca	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,249 (+6%)	17mo	$286,900	$230	58
1288 Lavaca	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,298 (+11%)	13mo	$298,900	$230	55
1298 Lavaca	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+12%)	16mo	$291,900	$222	50
725 Canyon Cir	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,016 (-13%)	8mo	$199,900	$197	44
1011 Alta Vista Ln	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,042 (-11%)	13mo	$250,000	$240	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -33.9%
Equity multiple: -0.08×
Total profit: $-79,782
Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

IRR: -64.9%
Equity multiple: -0.75×
Total profit: $-129,591
Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 7 active · 2 under contract
Months of supply: 21.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $275,000 ($220/sqft)
Median days on market: 132 d
This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +10.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78133

Home prices YoY: -33.8%
Rents YoY: -1.2%
Active inventory: 1321
Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,686 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,974/yr
Insurance: −$110
HOA: −$3
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
Net cashflow: $-502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,321

Max offer price $192,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-318	-5% $-410	+0% $-502	+5% $-593	+10% $-685
Rent	-10% $-635	-5% $-568	+0% $-502	+5% $-435	+10% $-368
Rate	-1.0pp $-368	-0.5pp $-434	base $-502	+0.5pp $-570	+1.0pp $-640

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $66,225
Closing costs: $7,947
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1616 Lonesome Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,600	$1.19	67d	1	0.23mi
1375 Canyon Trce Unit B Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.5	896	$1,450	$1.62	88d	1	0.38mi
1375 Canyon Trce Unit B Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.5	896	$1,450	$1.62	93d	1	0.38mi
690 Windrush Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$2,500	$1.85	5d	1	0.85mi
1803 Live Oak Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,550	$1.47	62d	1	1.04mi
1250 Arcadia Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	23d	1	1.13mi
537 Tamarack Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.0	1357	$1,395	$1.03	28d	1	1.16mi
537 Tamarack Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.0	1357	$1,820	$1.34	100d	1	1.16mi
1256 Cougar Dr #5 Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,345	$1.04	139d	1	1.21mi
1285 Live Oak Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,795	$1.37	139d	1	1.25mi
1200 Willow Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	1360	$1,775	$1.31	76d	1	1.26mi
7691 Farm to Market 32 #4 Fischer, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,145	$1.08	28d	1	1.26mi
635 Nottingham Canyon Lake, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$1,359	$1.53	0d	18	1.29mi

HOA detail $3/mo · $36/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $264,900 Active 260 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $264,900 Active 259 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $264,900 Active 258 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $264,900 Active 257 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $264,900 Active 256 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $264,900 Active 255 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $264,900 Active 254 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $264,900 Active 253 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $264,900 Active 252 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $264,900 Active 251 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $264,900 Active 250 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $264,900 Active 249 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $264,900 Active 248 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $264,900 Active 242 DOM
2026-09-04

statusdays on market $264,900 Active 241 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $264,900 Price Change 237 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $264,900 Price Change 236 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $264,900 Price Change 235 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $264,900 Price Change 234 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $264,900 Price Change 233 DOM
2026-08-25

pricestatusdays on market $264,900 Price Change 231 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $265,000 Active 230 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $265,000 Active 229 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $265,000 Active 228 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $265,000 Active 227 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $265,000 Active 226 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $265,000 Active 225 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $265,000 Active 224 DOM
2026-08-16

statusdays on market $265,000 Active 222 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $265,000 Price Change 221 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $265,000 Price Change 220 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $265,000 Price Change 219 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $265,000 Price Change 218 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $265,000 Price Change 217 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $265,000 Price Change 216 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $265,000 Price Change 215 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $265,000 Price Change 214 DOM
2026-08-06

pricestatusdays on market $265,000 Price Change 212 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $267,000 Active 211 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $267,000 Active 210 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $267,000 Active 209 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $267,000 Active 206 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $267,000 Active 204 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $267,000 Active 203 DOM
2026-07-26

statusdays on market $267,000 Active 201 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $267,000 Price Change 199 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $267,000 Price Change 198 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $267,000 Price Change 197 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $267,000 Price Change 196 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $267,000 Price Change 195 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $20,235
− Mortgage interest: −$14,839
− Property taxes: −$3,974
− Insurance: −$1,324
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
− Management: −$1,619
− HOA: −$36
− Depreciation: −$7,706
Taxable loss: −$10,881

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,612
After-tax cash flow: $-3,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This property is in excellent condition with no visible damage or wear. The exterior siding and landscaping need some touch-ups, but the interior is in good condition. Painting the exterior siding and landscaping will increase the property's value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the resale and rental value of the property. ↑
Both Landscaping and fencing — Landscaping and fencing will improve the curb appeal and increase the resale and rental value of the property. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mt Valley El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Mt Valley Middle C+ TX #281/1,662 Nat'l #2,873/14,009 High Memorial Early College H S With St Philip's A TX #27/1,632 Nat'l #918/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Comal ISD
NCES district ID: 4814730
Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $74,792
Composite: 51.79/100
National rank: #1671
State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Canyon Lake

Score: 67/100
State rank: #534
US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
County: Comal County · 175,637 people
City population: 42,159
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 21,959
Household income: $83,853
Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 175,637 people
By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
Current HPI: 218.4633
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+10879.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

2026-03-31 Price Changed $269,000 LERA
2026-03-19 Price Changed $273,000 LERA
2026-02-26 Price Changed $274,000 LERA
2026-02-14 Price Changed $279,000 LERA
2026-01-06 Listed $289,000 LERA
2025-10-15 Rental Removed $2,450 SABOR
2025-10-14 Listing Removed — LERA
2025-09-30 Price Changed $309,000 LERA
2025-09-14 Listed $325,000 LERA
2025-08-25 Listed for Rent $2,450 SABOR

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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