2813 S Estates Rd · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31216

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1971 0.60 ac lot Est $287k · 34% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home offers a spacious living area designed for comfortable everyday living. With four well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there is plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. The spacious yard provides ample outdoor space, while the fenced-in backyard offers added privacy and security for pets or children. A chicken coop is located on the property, adding a unique feature for those interested in small-scale homesteading or outdoor hobbies. This property offers a functional layout with room to personalize and make it your own.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Fenced-in backyard
• Chicken coop

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• CHICKEN COOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Porterfield Estates subdivision; Address: 2813 S Estates Rd, Macon, GA 31216
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad (open parking)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-family residence; House structure; Resale property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 1971
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Kitchen/laundry combo (laundry located in kitchen)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: One-level living; Living area 1816 (public records); Public-records above-grade finished area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Porter Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #936 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 406 students, 100% FRL); Rutland Middle School (math 12% / reading 28%, grade F, #349 of 470 statewide, top 75%, 812 students, 100% FRL); Rutland High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #394 of 424 statewide, top 97%, 907 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $190k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.82%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,928
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2813 S Estates Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (0%)	1mo	$190,000	$105	94
310 Browning Pointe Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,817 (+0%)	7mo	$308,040	$170	85
116 Fred Ct	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,812 (-0%)	5mo	$289,000	$159	84
106 Maries Garden Trl	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,817 (+0%)	6mo	$311,615	$171	84
344 Browning Pointe Rd	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,812 (-0%)	3mo	$270,000	$149	82
321 Browning Pointe Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (-1%)	4mo	$283,000	$158	82
350 Browning Pointe Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,812 (-0%)	4mo	$289,000	$159	82
5864 Porterfield Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-11%)	7mo	$210,000	$129	65
2960 Regina Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,021 (+11%)	4mo	$235,000	$116	62
268 Amanda Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,960 (+8%)	1mo	$325,000	$166	60
261 Amanda Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,952 (+8%)	1mo	$268,900	$138	59
116 Allentown Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,626 (-10%)	6mo	$252,000	$155	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,781
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-964
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31216

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,284/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,497

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $498	-5% $445	+0% $391	+5% $337	+10% $283
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $312	+0% $391	+5% $470	+10% $548
Rate	-1.0pp $487	-0.5pp $439	base $391	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
334 Amanda Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.5	2316	$2,265	$0.98	21d	1	0.36mi
3478 Bridgewood Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.5	1915	$2,095	$1.09	44d	1	1.06mi
4057 Liberty Estates Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1747	$1,845	$1.06	21d	1	1.16mi
6670 Fran Dr Macon, GA	4.0	3.0	2024	$2,181	$1.08	14d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   This home offers a spacious living area designed for comfortable everyday living. With four well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there is plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. The spacious yard provides ample outdoor space, while the fenced-in backyard offers added privacy and security for pets or children. A chicken coop is located on the property, adding a unique feature for those interested in small-scale homesteading or outdoor hobbies. This property offers a functional layout with room to personalize and make it your own.

2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   This home offers a spacious living area designed for comfortable everyday living. With four well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there is plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. The spacious yard provides ample outdoor space, while the fenced-in backyard offers added privacy and security for pets or children. A chicken coop is located on the property, adding a unique feature for those interested in small-scale homesteading or outdoor hobbies. This property offers a functional layout with room to personalize and make it your own.

3. 2026-04-24
   price $190,000 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   This home offers a spacious living area designed for comfortable everyday living. With four well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there is plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. The spacious yard provides ample outdoor space, while the fenced-in backyard offers added privacy and security for pets or children. A chicken coop is located on the property, adding a unique feature for those interested in small-scale homesteading or outdoor hobbies. This property offers a functional layout with room to personalize and make it your own.

4. 2026-04-24
   price $190,000

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   This home offers a spacious living area designed for comfortable everyday living. With four well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there is plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. The spacious yard provides ample outdoor space, while the fenced-in backyard offers added privacy and security for pets or children. A chicken coop is located on the property, adding a unique feature for those interested in small-scale homesteading or outdoor hobbies. This property offers a functional layout with room to personalize and make it your own.

5. 2026-04-16
   price $210,500 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   This home offers a spacious living area designed for comfortable everyday living. With four well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there is plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. The spacious yard provides ample outdoor space, while the fenced-in backyard offers added privacy and security for pets or children. A chicken coop is located on the property, adding a unique feature for those interested in small-scale homesteading or outdoor hobbies. This property offers a functional layout with room to personalize and make it your own.

6. 2026-04-16
   price $210,000

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   This home offers a spacious living area designed for comfortable everyday living. With four well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there is plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. The spacious yard provides ample outdoor space, while the fenced-in backyard offers added privacy and security for pets or children. A chicken coop is located on the property, adding a unique feature for those interested in small-scale homesteading or outdoor hobbies. This property offers a functional layout with room to personalize and make it your own.

7. 2026-02-24
   price $214,500 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   This home offers a spacious living area designed for comfortable everyday living. With four well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there is plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. The spacious yard provides ample outdoor space, while the fenced-in backyard offers added privacy and security for pets or children. A chicken coop is located on the property, adding a unique feature for those interested in small-scale homesteading or outdoor hobbies. This property offers a functional layout with room to personalize and make it your own.

8. 2026-02-24
   price $214,500

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   This home offers a spacious living area designed for comfortable everyday living. With four well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there is plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. The spacious yard provides ample outdoor space, while the fenced-in backyard offers added privacy and security for pets or children. A chicken coop is located on the property, adding a unique feature for those interested in small-scale homesteading or outdoor hobbies. This property offers a functional layout with room to personalize and make it your own.

9. 2026-01-23
   listed $220,000 Active 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   This home offers a spacious living area designed for comfortable everyday living. With four well-sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there is plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. The spacious yard provides ample outdoor space, while the fenced-in backyard offers added privacy and security for pets or children. A chicken coop is located on the property, adding a unique feature for those interested in small-scale homesteading or outdoor hobbies. This property offers a functional layout with room to personalize and make it your own.

10. 2026-01-21
    listed $220,000 New
11. 2019-07-01
    soldstatus $65,000
12. 2013-02-26
    soldstatus $56,000 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Great little starter home in Sub South. Eligible for $100 down payment program. 3 bedrooms, 2 baths on .6 acres.

13. 2012-12-21
    listed $56,000 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Great little starter home in Sub South. Eligible for $100 down payment program. 3 bedrooms, 2 baths on .6 acres.

14. 2008-12-01
    soldstatus $111,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,748 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$464/yr (+$39/mo · 36.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,284
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $1,672
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$401
• After-tax cash flow: $4,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 16,328
• Household income: $72,452
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.37%
• Current HPI: 211.3565
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.31%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+70.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — CGMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $190,000 CGMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $190,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $210,500 CGMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $210,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $214,500 CGMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $214,500 GAMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $220,000 CGMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $220,000 GAMLS
• 2019-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-26 Sold (MLS) $56,000 GAMLS
• 2012-12-21 Listed $56,000 GAMLS
• 2008-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $111,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,284 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.