3943 National Dr · Abilene, TX 79602

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · Land · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 7,884 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction on Live Oak Golf Course! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern style and a functional open floor plan, perfectly designed for comfort. The spacious living room boasts a vaulted ceiling, creating a light and airy feel that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining spaces. The kitchen features quartz countertops throughout, a large island, stainless steel appliances, and a breakfast nook with beautiful views of the course. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs through the entire home for durability and easy maintenance. The primary suite is a true retreat with dual sinks, a linen closet, a beautifully tiled walk-in shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. The guest b

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Dual sinks
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• DUAL SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie East El (math 58% / reading 58%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 789 students, 30% FRL); Wylie West J H (math 62% / reading 58%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 972 students, 24% FRL); Wylie H S (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 1,467 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,916 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.44%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-50,604
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $3,701
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,609 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $298,264

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-72	+0% $-185	+5% $-297	+10% $-409
Rent	-10% $-391	-5% $-288	+0% $-185	+5% $-82	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-102	base $-185	+0.5pp $-269	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1342 Lewis and Clark Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$6,900	$4.39	15d	1	0.19mi
1341 Briar Cliff Path Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1712	$3,100	$1.81	15d	1	0.26mi
3926 Duke Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,250	$1.40	9d	1	0.28mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	24d	1	0.30mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	22d	1	0.30mi
3674 Radcliff Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	1.5	1155	$2,000	$1.73	15d	1	0.35mi
3601 Purdue Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1172	$2,150	$1.83	4d	1	0.47mi
1097 Lytle Creek Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,895	$1.99	15d	1	0.86mi
609 Marlin Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1925	$3,250	$1.69	20d	1	1.01mi
801 Big Water Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,800	$1.82	15d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $325,000 Active
3. 2021-06-16
   historical
4. 2020-08-31
   price $49,000
5. 2020-03-01
   listed $58,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,505
• − Management: −$2,505
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$7,859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,886
• After-tax cash flow: $-331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+455.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2021-06-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2020-08-31 Price Changed $49,000 NTREIS
• 2020-03-01 Listed $58,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $533 · +19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.