170 Talulla Trl · Nocatee, FL 32095

$256,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,210 sqft · SingleFamily · 116 Days on market

Built 2023 2,178 sqft lot $212/sqft · 10% below area Est $286k · 10% under $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a beautiful townhome in a great location in St. Johns County. You will find granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen. There is tile throughout the first floor. You can sit out on the back patio and enjoy the view of the pond out back and the sounds of the fountain. Plenty of storage space in the one car garage. This location is close to the community pool and amenity center, just an easy walk away. The walls have been painted and the home is in move-in ready condition. There is easy access to restaurants, grocery stores, shopping and to the interstate.

Key facts

• View of pond
• White cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILE THROUGHOUT FIRST FLOOR
• BACK PATIO
• VIEW OF POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Palencia Elementary School (math 82% / reading 80%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 781 students, 15% FRL); Pacetti Bay Middle School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #40 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 1,443 students, 18% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,325 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,891
• List price: $256,000
• Delta: -10.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-62,424
• Equity at exit: $38,170

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-87,730
• Equity at exit: $22,134

Cash invested: $71,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32095

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,416/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,383

Max offer price $204,467

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-219	+0% $-292	+5% $-364	+10% $-437
Rent	-10% $-451	-5% $-371	+0% $-292	+5% $-212	+10% $-133
Rate	-1.0pp $-163	-0.5pp $-227	base $-292	+0.5pp $-358	+1.0pp $-426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,000
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
66 Pomona Way Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$2,900	$2.32	19d	1	0.04mi
63 Oarsman Crossing Dr Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,775	$1.47	25d	1	0.06mi
262 Talulla Trl Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,700	$1.40	19d	1	0.07mi
97 Pomona Way Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,774	$1.47	23d	1	0.08mi
32 Pasadena Dr Unit 1 St. Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1442	$2,100	$1.46	25d	1	0.15mi
22 Vero Dr St. Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1300	$2,150	$1.65	25d	1	0.15mi
96 Vero Dr Unit 1 St. Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1220	$1,725	$1.41	14d	1	0.21mi
96 Vero Dr Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1220	$1,725	$1.41	16d	1	0.21mi
199 Tidal Beach Ave Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,750	$1.46	22d	1	0.35mi
30 Tidal Beach Ave Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,799	$1.49	9d	1	0.43mi
75 Teigan Trl St Johns, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,939	$1.87	3d	35	0.67mi
35 Crystal Palm Dr St Johns, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$1,996	$1.79	5d	16	0.87mi
581 Scrub Jay Dr Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1346	$1,800	$1.34	13d	1	1.05mi
505 Scrub Jay Dr Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1497	$1,850	$1.24	5d	1	1.11mi
454 Scrub Jay Dr Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1497	$1,950	$1.30	25d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $256,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $256,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $256,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $256,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $261,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $261,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $261,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $261,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $261,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $261,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $261,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $261,000 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    What a beautiful townhome in a great location in St. Johns County. You will find granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen. There is tile throughout the first floor. You can sit out on the back patio and enjoy the view of the pond out back and the sounds of the fountain. Plenty of storage space in the one car garage. This location is close to the community pool and amenity center, just an easy walk away. The walls have been painted and the home is in move-in ready condition. There is easy access to restaurants, grocery stores, shopping and to the interstate.

16. 2026-04-11
    price $263,000 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    What a beautiful townhome in a great location in St. Johns County. You will find granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen. There is tile throughout the first floor. You can sit out on the back patio and enjoy the view of the pond out back and the sounds of the fountain. Plenty of storage space in the one car garage. This location is close to the community pool and amenity center, just an easy walk away. The walls have been painted and the home is in move-in ready condition. There is easy access to restaurants, grocery stores, shopping and to the interstate.

17. 2026-03-25
    price $265,000 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    What a beautiful townhome in a great location in St. Johns County. You will find granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen. There is tile throughout the first floor. You can sit out on the back patio and enjoy the view of the pond out back and the sounds of the fountain. Plenty of storage space in the one car garage. This location is close to the community pool and amenity center, just an easy walk away. The walls have been painted and the home is in move-in ready condition. There is easy access to restaurants, grocery stores, shopping and to the interstate.

18. 2026-03-09
    price $269,000 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    What a beautiful townhome in a great location in St. Johns County. You will find granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen. There is tile throughout the first floor. You can sit out on the back patio and enjoy the view of the pond out back and the sounds of the fountain. Plenty of storage space in the one car garage. This location is close to the community pool and amenity center, just an easy walk away. The walls have been painted and the home is in move-in ready condition. There is easy access to restaurants, grocery stores, shopping and to the interstate.

19. 2026-03-09
    price $169,000 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    What a beautiful townhome in a great location in St. Johns County. You will find granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen. There is tile throughout the first floor. You can sit out on the back patio and enjoy the view of the pond out back and the sounds of the fountain. Plenty of storage space in the one car garage. This location is close to the community pool and amenity center, just an easy walk away. The walls have been painted and the home is in move-in ready condition. There is easy access to restaurants, grocery stores, shopping and to the interstate.

20. 2026-02-25
    listed $275,000 Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    What a beautiful townhome in a great location in St. Johns County. You will find granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen. There is tile throughout the first floor. You can sit out on the back patio and enjoy the view of the pond out back and the sounds of the fountain. Plenty of storage space in the one car garage. This location is close to the community pool and amenity center, just an easy walk away. The walls have been painted and the home is in move-in ready condition. There is easy access to restaurants, grocery stores, shopping and to the interstate.

21. 2025-04-15
    historical 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    This wonderful townhouse is essentially new and in great condition. With granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen the property has a great look. Tile floor through the first floor. Sit out in back and enjoy the view of the pond and the sounds of the fountain. This unit is close to the pool and other amenities, just an easy walk away. Ceiling fans in the family room and bedrooms keep the air circulating. This property is ready for a new owner so come take a look today.

22. 2025-02-15
    price $291,990 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    This wonderful townhouse is essentially new and in great condition. With granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen the property has a great look. Tile floor through the first floor. Sit out in back and enjoy the view of the pond and the sounds of the fountain. This unit is close to the pool and other amenities, just an easy walk away. Ceiling fans in the family room and bedrooms keep the air circulating. This property is ready for a new owner so come take a look today.

23. 2025-01-06
    price $297,000 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    This wonderful townhouse is essentially new and in great condition. With granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen the property has a great look. Tile floor through the first floor. Sit out in back and enjoy the view of the pond and the sounds of the fountain. This unit is close to the pool and other amenities, just an easy walk away. Ceiling fans in the family room and bedrooms keep the air circulating. This property is ready for a new owner so come take a look today.

24. 2025-01-06
    status Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    This wonderful townhouse is essentially new and in great condition. With granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen the property has a great look. Tile floor through the first floor. Sit out in back and enjoy the view of the pond and the sounds of the fountain. This unit is close to the pool and other amenities, just an easy walk away. Ceiling fans in the family room and bedrooms keep the air circulating. This property is ready for a new owner so come take a look today.

25. 2024-12-31
    historical 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    This wonderful townhouse is essentially new and in great condition. With granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen the property has a great look. Tile floor through the first floor. Sit out in back and enjoy the view of the pond and the sounds of the fountain. This unit is close to the pool and other amenities, just an easy walk away. Ceiling fans in the family room and bedrooms keep the air circulating. This property is ready for a new owner so come take a look today.

26. 2024-11-08
    price $298,000 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    This wonderful townhouse is essentially new and in great condition. With granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen the property has a great look. Tile floor through the first floor. Sit out in back and enjoy the view of the pond and the sounds of the fountain. This unit is close to the pool and other amenities, just an easy walk away. Ceiling fans in the family room and bedrooms keep the air circulating. This property is ready for a new owner so come take a look today.

27. 2024-09-29
    listed $300,000 Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    This wonderful townhouse is essentially new and in great condition. With granite countertops, white cabinets and stainless steel appliances in the kitchen the property has a great look. Tile floor through the first floor. Sit out in back and enjoy the view of the pond and the sounds of the fountain. This unit is close to the pool and other amenities, just an easy walk away. Ceiling fans in the family room and bedrooms keep the air circulating. This property is ready for a new owner so come take a look today.

28. 2023-09-22
    soldstatus $289,990 Closed
29. 2023-08-29
    status Pending
30. 2023-06-12
    status Pending
31. 2023-06-06
    price $294,990
32. 2023-06-06
    status Active
33. 2023-06-05
    status Pending
34. 2023-05-31
    listed $293,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,416 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,416 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,340
• − Property taxes: −$4,416
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,933
• − Management: −$1,933
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$7,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,913
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,399
• Household income: $136,038
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 246.0743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.77%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $261,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $263,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $265,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $269,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $169,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $275,000 realMLS
• 2025-04-15 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-02-15 Price Changed $291,990 realMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $297,000 realMLS
• 2025-01-06 Relisted — realMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-11-08 Price Changed $298,000 realMLS
• 2024-09-29 Listed $300,000 realMLS
• 2023-09-22 Sold (MLS) $289,990 realMLS
• 2023-08-29 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-06-12 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-06-06 Price Changed $294,990 realMLS
• 2023-06-06 Relisted — realMLS
• 2023-06-05 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-05-31 Listed $293,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+41.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,416 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.