430 Worlds End Ln · Skyland Estates, VA 22642

$288,888

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1981 0.33 ac lot Est $316k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD Case #544-223288. Sold As-Is with no faults, warranties, or guarantees. Property has discoloration in the basement. Please see documents files for information on condition. No pre-closing repairs or payments will be made for any reason. Go to hudhomestore. gov to learn more about this home, how/ whom can purchase it, and how to submit offers. Insurable with escrow repair. Insurability is based upon the buyer's FHA appraisal. The accuracy of the listing is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. The disclosures are under the documents tab. Subject to an FHA appraisal. Buyer selects Closing Agent/Firm.

Key facts

• Well tank
• Water heater
• Wrap-around deck

Tags

• WRAP-AROUND DECK
• ENCLOSED FENCED YARD
• EXTERIOR SHED
• PANTRY SHELVING
• WELL TANK
• WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Electric for heating, cooling and hot water
• Home design: Detached structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Year built: estimated
• Exterior features: Property not in a federal flood zone; Tidal water: none

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Daylight, partially finished basement; Living area measured per assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#414 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hilda J. Barbour Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 469 students, 66% FRL); Warren County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 34% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,900 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,840
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
649 Ulysses Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-10%)	12mo	$335,000	$332	57
134 Ulysses Way	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,152 (+3%)	22mo	$325,000	$282	55
572 Bifrost Way	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,276 (+14%)	4mo	$299,000	$234	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $141,464
• Equity at exit: $260,253

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $428,724
• Equity at exit: $561,246

Cash invested: $80,889 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22642

• Home prices YoY: 10.6%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,515
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,346/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,212

Max offer price $245,208

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-165	+0% $-247	+5% $-329	+10% $-411
Rent	-10% $-397	-5% $-322	+0% $-247	+5% $-172	+10% $-97
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-174	base $-247	+0.5pp $-322	+1.0pp $-398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,222
• Closing costs: $8,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5223 John Marshall Hwy Linden, VA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,899	$1.46	0d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $288,888 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $288,888 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $288,888 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $288,888 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $288,888 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 625-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $288,888 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $288,888 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 604-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $288,888 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,346 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,369 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,023/yr (+$85/mo · 76.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,182
• − Property taxes: −$1,346
• − Insurance: −$1,444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$8,404
• Taxable loss: −$8,234
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,976
• After-tax cash flow: $-991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Skyland Estates

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #17314

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Skyland Estates, VA
• Population (ZIP): 4,130

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.77%
• Current HPI: 437.0062
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+234.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $288,888 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-16 Sold (MLS) $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-25 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-23 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-31 Sold (MLS) $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-29 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-23 Listed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-01-30 Sold (MLS) $119,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-30 Sold (MLS) $119,000 MRIS
• 2013-10-30 Pending — MRIS
• 2013-10-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-10-28 Price Changed $129,900 MRIS
• 2013-09-10 Price Changed $139,900 MRIS
• 2013-08-10 Listed $149,000 MRIS
• 2013-08-10 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-01-05 Sold (MLS) $81,500 MRIS
• 2004-12-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-12-08 Listed $86,500 MRIS
• 2004-07-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-04-13 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,346 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.