839 Juniata River Rd · Williamsburg, PA 16693

$123,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1941 0.32 ac lot Est $186k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offering space, flexibility, and endless potential! Featuring one full bath on the main level and another upstairs, this home also includes a versatile bonus room perfect for a home office, game room, workout space, or guest area. Natural light fills the home, highlighting the generous closet space, and opportunity to truly make the space your own. Relax on the large covered front porch and enjoy the peaceful setting where you can watch wildlife right from your front and back yard. The newly paved driveway leads to a detached 2-car garage providing added convenience and storage; as well as, excellent space for hobbies, projects, or workshop use. Situated

Key facts

• Newly paved driveway
• Double lot
• Versatile bonus room

Tags

• FULL BATH ON MAIN LEVEL
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• NEWLY PAVED DRIVEWAY
• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• DOUBLE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Sloped and level areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Tile; Wood; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Basement; Dehumidifier
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#561 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Williamsburg Community SD (rural): math 35% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #260 of 539 in PA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Blair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($850 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Blair County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $117,951 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.44%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,120
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 W 3rd St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (-5%)	12mo	$160,000	$119	50
302 Dean St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,534 (+9%)	4mo	$203,000	$132	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $37,293
• Equity at exit: $68,666

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $104,578
• Equity at exit: $117,660

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16693

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $953/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $982

Max offer price $123,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $191	+0% $156	+5% $121	+10% $87
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $110	+0% $156	+5% $203	+10% $249
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $187	base $156	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $123,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $123,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-05-28
   listed $123,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $953 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,448 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$495/yr (+$41/mo · 52.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$953
• − Insurance: −$615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,132
• − Management: −$1,132
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable loss: −$146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$35
• After-tax cash flow: $1,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsburg Community SD
• NCES district ID: 4226430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,977
• Composite: 39.22/100
• National rank: #4014
• State rank: #260 of 539 in PA

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #561
• US rank: #5279

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,015

Population outlook (Blair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 121,571 people
• By 2030: 117,966 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 109,174 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 99,542 · -18.1%
• By 2075: 76,775 · -36.8%
• By 2100: 54,326 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Blair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.5) · D 27.9% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.3pp · 2024: -43.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.5 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.4 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.86%
• Current HPI: 133.0129
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $123,000 AHARMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $953 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.