409 4th St · Silver Creek, NE 68663

$124,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 217 Days on market

Built 1905 8,712 sqft lot $95/sqft · 56% above area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newness abounds in this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home on a desirable corn lot in Silver Creek. Updates include new electrical, roof, heating and air, flooring, appliances, and a completely new kitchen. Bright, move-in ready, and inviting, with two porches perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation.

Key facts

• New air
• New flooring
• New electrical

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HEATING
• NEW AIR
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($777/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#305 in NE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Twin River Public Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #79 of 111 in NE (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Twin River Elem-Genoa (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #319 of 502 statewide, top 68%, 219 students, 38% FRL); Twin River Sr High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #107 of 261 statewide, top 52%, 190 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Merrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($857 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Merrick County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.57%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,000
• List price: $124,000
• Delta: 56.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Highway 30 Rd	0.19mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,284 (-2%)	1mo	$79,000	$62	80
403 Oak St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+12%)	10mo	$178,000	$122	67
507 Oak St	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,436 (+10%)	14mo	$65,000	$45	62
3111 33rd Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-1%)	10mo	$18,000	$14	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $16,319
• Equity at exit: $52,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $55,861
• Equity at exit: $79,178

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68663

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $441/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,094

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $100	+0% $65	+5% $30	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $18	+0% $65	+5% $111	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $96	base $65	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $0

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,000 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,000 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $124,000 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,000 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,000 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,000 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-04-27
   price $124,000 307-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Newness abounds in this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a desirable corner lot! Step inside and enjoy peace of mind with all the updates already done for you, including new electrical, new roof, new heating and air, new flooring, new appliances, and a completely new kitchen. Every detail has been thoughtfully refreshed to create a move-in ready space that feels bright and inviting. Enjoy relaxing on either of the two porches, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home in Silver Creek. All the hard work has been done, so you can simply move in and enjoy!

9. 2026-04-27
   price $124,000 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Newness abounds in this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a desirable corner lot! Step inside and enjoy peace of mind with all the updates already done for you, including new electrical, new roof, new heating and air, new flooring, new appliances, and a completely new kitchen. Every detail has been thoughtfully refreshed to create a move-in ready space that feels bright and inviting. Enjoy relaxing on either of the two porches, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home in Silver Creek. All the hard work has been done, so you can simply move in and enjoy!

10. 2026-02-04
    price $129,000 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Newness abounds in this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a desirable corner lot! Step inside and enjoy peace of mind with all the updates already done for you, including new electrical, new roof, new heating and air, new flooring, new appliances, and a completely new kitchen. Every detail has been thoughtfully refreshed to create a move-in ready space that feels bright and inviting. Enjoy relaxing on either of the two porches, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home in Silver Creek. All the hard work has been done, so you can simply move in and enjoy!

11. 2026-02-04
    price $129,000 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Newness abounds in this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a desirable corner lot! Step inside and enjoy peace of mind with all the updates already done for you, including new electrical, new roof, new heating and air, new flooring, new appliances, and a completely new kitchen. Every detail has been thoughtfully refreshed to create a move-in ready space that feels bright and inviting. Enjoy relaxing on either of the two porches, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home in Silver Creek. All the hard work has been done, so you can simply move in and enjoy!

12. 2025-11-01
    listed $134,000 Active 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Newness abounds in this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a desirable corner lot! Step inside and enjoy peace of mind with all the updates already done for you, including new electrical, new roof, new heating and air, new flooring, new appliances, and a completely new kitchen. Every detail has been thoughtfully refreshed to create a move-in ready space that feels bright and inviting. Enjoy relaxing on either of the two porches, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home in Silver Creek. All the hard work has been done, so you can simply move in and enjoy!

13. 2025-11-01
    listed $134,000 New 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Newness abounds in this charming 3 bedroom, 1 bath home situated on a desirable corner lot! Step inside and enjoy peace of mind with all the updates already done for you, including new electrical, new roof, new heating and air, new flooring, new appliances, and a completely new kitchen. Every detail has been thoughtfully refreshed to create a move-in ready space that feels bright and inviting. Enjoy relaxing on either of the two porches, perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home in Silver Creek. All the hard work has been done, so you can simply move in and enjoy!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $441 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,145 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,704/yr (+$142/mo · 386.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$441
• − Insurance: −$2,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable loss: −$1,268
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$304
• After-tax cash flow: $1,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin River Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3100129
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,425
• Composite: 39.44/100
• National rank: #3961
• State rank: #79 of 111 in NE

Livability — Silver Creek

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #305
• US rank: #11525

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Creek, NE
• Population (ZIP): 734

Population outlook (Merrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,635 people
• By 2030: 7,504 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 7,217 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 6,843 · -10.4%
• By 2075: 5,739 · -24.8%
• By 2100: 4,320 · -43.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 24% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.0) · D 16.8% · R 81.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -40.5pp · 2024: -65.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.0 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+62.4 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+40.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.58%
• Current HPI: 257.981
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $124,000 GIBOR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $124,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $129,000 GIBOR
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $129,000 GPRMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listed $134,000 GPRMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listed $134,000 GIBOR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $441 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.