838 Otter Creek Rd · Vine Grove, KY 40175

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · MultiFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 0.25 ac lot Est $285k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

* * Stunning Contemporary Home with an Open Concept Design * * New construction! This beautifully crafted home offers an inviting open concept, split bedroom floor plan that effortlessly marries style and function. Bathed in natural light from generous windows throughout, every corner of this residence radiates warmth and welcomes you inside. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a spacious foyer leading into the heart of the home — a large great room with a fireplace and a kitchen designed for both culinary delights and entertaining. Featuring granite countertops, contemporary black fixtures, a tile back splash, an island, pantry and a full appliance package. The split bedroom layout

Key facts

• Natural light
• Open concept design
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGE GREAT ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Heat pump heating
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Built in 2025; Entry at the front
• Construction: Vinyl siding and stone exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Lot is 0.25 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen; First-floor dining room
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.0% in Vine Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#124 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $289,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.18%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,075
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
828 Otter Creek Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,575 (0%)	14mo	$285,000	$181	86
832 Otter Creek Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,575 (0%)	21mo	$289,900	$184	81
824 Otter Creek Rd	0.08mi	3/3.0	1,800 (+14%)	7mo	$306,000	$170	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-7,378
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $44,704
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40175

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,348/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,536

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 76%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$3,322
Total (2 units)			$3,322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Cedarcrest Dr Vine Grove, KY	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,850	$1.11	44d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $289,900 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on marketlisting id $289,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,900 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on marketlisting id $289,900 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 141 DOM
18. 2026-01-09
    listed $289,900 Active
19. 2025-10-06
    price $289,900
20. 2025-10-06
    price $289,900
21. 2025-08-28
    price $294,900
22. 2025-08-28
    price $294,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$4,348
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,189
• − Management: −$3,189
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable income: $3,015
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$724
• After-tax cash flow: $6,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home offers a modern and open concept design with high-quality finishes and systems. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value-adding improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency, appealing to modern buyers and renters.
• Both Install smart lighting — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves convenience and energy efficiency, appealing to modern buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency, appealing to modern buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install smart lighting — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves convenience and energy efficiency, appealing to modern buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Vine Grove

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #5837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vine Grove, KY
• Population (ZIP): 16,283

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.55%
• Current HPI: 246.3715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Listed $289,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $289,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $289,900 HKARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $294,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $294,900 HKARMLS