3079 Willow Dr · Brandon, MS 39042

$206,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1994 9,147 sqft lot Est $205k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is one of those rare finds that makes you :) :) :)!! You must check out this precious home soon because it will not last long! This cutie is situated on a huge lot in a cul de sac which is rare of this price point in Brandon! Step inside and you'll find a beautiful and roomy family room with trey ceiling, fireplace, and ceramic tile flooring, a great kitchen with eat in nook, breakfast bar, pantry, and lots of cabinet and counter space. The master bedroom is a great size and has trey ceiling, a huge walk in closet. The master bath is something you rarely see in this price range! Jetted tub, plenty of space, stand alone shower, private restroom, and so much more. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are both very nicely sized and have huge closets as well. One has a walk in closet that is almost as large as the master closet! The guest bath is very roomy and has lots of storage and plenty of counter space! This home has NO CARPET and has been freshly painted in beautiful, neutral colors. Step out back and you'll be excited find a very nicely sized, and flat backyard with privacy fence and a new covered deck that you can enjoy in privacy as there is not a neighbor directly behind you! I could go on and on but you must check it out for yourself before it's gone!

Key facts

• Outside storage room
• Fenced in backyard
• 9,147 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE ACCESS TO BACK PATIO
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• OUTSIDE STORAGE ROOM
• GREAT SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One level
• Construction: Brick and siding construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Patio; Back yard fencing; Privacy fencing; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric range; Oven
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Hot water heating; Fireplace(s) provide heat; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Tile counters; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Insulated windows; Living room fireplace; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater; Water heater; Exhaust fan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Brandon Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #11 of 375 statewide, top 3%, 741 students, 100% FRL); Brandon Middle School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade B, #11 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,193 students, 100% FRL); Brandon High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #27 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 1,648 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,370 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.76%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,953
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3072 Willow Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-4%)	1mo	$199,900	$164	90
368 Highway 468	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,251 (-2%)	8mo	$205,000	$164	84
222 Sunchase Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+2%)	12mo	$204,900	$157	81
3007 Willow Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+9%)	0mo	$205,000	$147	80
110 Windchase Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+7%)	10mo	$214,900	$158	77
133 Windchase	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-7%)	11mo	$199,800	$168	73
205 Edge Water Branch Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+10%)	2mo	$225,000	$161	71
625 Briars Bnd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+6%)	10mo	$210,000	$156	70
116 Windchase Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+12%)	6mo	$230,000	$161	70
401 Windchase Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+11%)	5mo	$230,000	$163	64
579 Lincolns Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+14%)	8mo	$235,000	$161	60
569 Lincolns Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+13%)	10mo	$222,580	$155	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-15,364
• Equity at exit: $30,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $36,444
• Equity at exit: $17,811

Cash invested: $57,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,080
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,018/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,742

Max offer price $206,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $210	+0% $151	+5% $93	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $-1	-5% $75	+0% $151	+5% $228	+10% $304
Rate	-1.0pp $255	-0.5pp $204	base $151	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,500
• Closing costs: $6,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Fox Meadow Dr Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	15d	1	0.72mi
1500 Chapelridge Way Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,609	$1.49	25d	1	0.99mi
1500 Chapelridge Way Brandon, MS	2.0	2.0	921	$1,399	$1.52	23d	1	0.99mi
202 Overby St Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,786	$1.28	45d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $206,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $206,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $206,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $206,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $206,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $206,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $206,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $206,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $206,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $206,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $206,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $206,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $206,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $206,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $206,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $206,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    listed $206,000 Active
18. 2017-06-06
    soldstatus 1264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1264 chars)

    This is one of those rare finds that makes you :) :) :)!! You must check out this precious home soon because it will not last long! This cutie is situated on a huge lot in a cul de sac which is rare of this price point in Brandon! Step inside and you'll find a beautiful and roomy family room with trey ceiling, fireplace, and ceramic tile flooring, a great kitchen with eat in nook, breakfast bar, pantry, and lots of cabinet and counter space. The master bedroom is a great size and has trey ceiling, a huge walk in closet. The master bath is something you rarely see in this price range! Jetted tub, plenty of space, stand alone shower, private restroom, and so much more. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are both very nicely sized and have huge closets as well. One has a walk in closet that is almost as large as the master closet! The guest bath is very roomy and has lots of storage and plenty of counter space! This home has NO CARPET and has been freshly painted in beautiful, neutral colors. Step out back and you'll be excited find a very nicely sized, and flat backyard with privacy fence and a new covered deck that you can enjoy in privacy as there is not a neighbor directly behind you! I could go on and on but you must check it out for yourself before it's gone!

19. 2017-02-23
    listed $124,900 1264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1264 chars)

    This is one of those rare finds that makes you :) :) :)!! You must check out this precious home soon because it will not last long! This cutie is situated on a huge lot in a cul de sac which is rare of this price point in Brandon! Step inside and you'll find a beautiful and roomy family room with trey ceiling, fireplace, and ceramic tile flooring, a great kitchen with eat in nook, breakfast bar, pantry, and lots of cabinet and counter space. The master bedroom is a great size and has trey ceiling, a huge walk in closet. The master bath is something you rarely see in this price range! Jetted tub, plenty of space, stand alone shower, private restroom, and so much more. Bedrooms 2 and 3 are both very nicely sized and have huge closets as well. One has a walk in closet that is almost as large as the master closet! The guest bath is very roomy and has lots of storage and plenty of counter space! This home has NO CARPET and has been freshly painted in beautiful, neutral colors. Step out back and you'll be excited find a very nicely sized, and flat backyard with privacy fence and a new covered deck that you can enjoy in privacy as there is not a neighbor directly behind you! I could go on and on but you must check it out for yourself before it's gone!

20. 2007-12-14
    soldstatus
21. 2007-11-28
    soldstatus 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Just totally redecorated!! New carpet, fresh paint, ceramic tile and more. Kitchen has tile on floor and countertops, tile also in family room, hall and baths, great privacy fenced backyard and side patio. Brandon schools.

22. 2007-10-15
    listed $119,900 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Just totally redecorated!! New carpet, fresh paint, ceramic tile and more. Kitchen has tile on floor and countertops, tile also in family room, hall and baths, great privacy fenced backyard and side patio. Brandon schools.

23. 2003-07-28
    soldstatus
24. 2003-06-13
    listed $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$610/yr (+$51/mo · 59.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,539
• − Property taxes: −$1,018
• − Insurance: −$2,532
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − Depreciation: −$5,993
• Taxable loss: −$1,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$382
• After-tax cash flow: $2,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+128.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $206,000 MLSU
• 2017-06-06 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2017-02-23 Listed $124,900 MLSU
• 2007-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-11-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2007-10-15 Listed $119,900 MLSU
• 2003-07-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2003-06-13 Listed $90,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,018 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.