509 Nan Way St · Huntsville, TX 77340

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 267 Days on market

Built 2021 $40/sqft · 78% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3 Bed/ 2 Bath located in the Tanglewood community.

Key facts

• Built 2021
• Listed 267 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 2.6% in Huntsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#825 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime D-.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 600 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.72%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,078
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -75.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $24,965
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $58,813
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77340

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 600
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $548/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $493

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $575	-5% $562	+0% $548	+5% $534	+10% $520
Rent	-10% $454	-5% $501	+0% $548	+5% $595	+10% $641
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $560	base $548	+0.5pp $535	+1.0pp $522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Sara Ln Huntsville, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,299	$1.35	5d	1	0.12mi
2401 Sycamore Ave Unit E8 Huntsville, TX	2.0	1.0	1025	$950	$0.93	44d	1	0.22mi
2455 Montgomery Rd Apt 46 Huntsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	0.54mi
2455 Montgomery Rd Unit 23 Huntsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.55mi
2461 Montgomery Rd Huntsville, TX	2.0	1.0	832	$959	$1.15	44d	1	0.59mi
615 Hayman St Huntsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1000	$1,362	$1.36	17d	1	0.70mi
2333 Lake Rd Huntsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	869	$1,025	$1.18	3d	4	0.83mi
2507 Lake Rd Huntsville, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$929	$1.03	44d	1	0.83mi
2451 Lake Rd Huntsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	3d	16	0.85mi
1235 Josey St Unit 185 Huntsville, TX	2.0	2.0	906	$999	$1.10	44d	1	1.06mi
1241 Josey St Huntsville, TX	2.0	2.0	906	$885	$0.98	44d	1	1.07mi
4516 Lake Rd Huntsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,113	$1.02	44d	1	1.14mi
1323 Avenue E Huntsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,250	$0.92	44d	1	1.18mi
1410 Nottingham St Huntsville, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1000	$1,024	$1.02	44d	1	1.23mi
2523 Avenue M Huntsville, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–5.0	1188	$1,019	$0.86	24d	18	1.29mi
1420 20 1/2 St Huntsville, TX	2.0	1.0	820	$775	$0.95	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 267 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 261 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 260 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 256 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 255 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 252 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 251 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 250 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 249 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 248 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,000 Active 247 DOM
18. 2025-12-05
    price $49,000 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (60 chars)

    Beautiful 3 Bed/ 2 Bath located in the Tanglewood community.

19. 2025-09-25
    listed $55,000 Active 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (60 chars)

    Beautiful 3 Bed/ 2 Bath located in the Tanglewood community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $548 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 63.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$548
• − Insurance: −$1,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $6,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,488
• After-tax cash flow: $5,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 25.71/100
• National rank: #7383
• State rank: #621 of 826 in TX

Livability — Huntsville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #14909

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Huntsville, TX
• County: Walker County · 75,669 people
• City population: 75,669
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,517
• Household income: $48,538
• Rent vs Own: 52.4% rent · 47.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1961.0

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.44%
• Current HPI: 182.8905
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $49,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-09-25 Listed $55,000 ForSaleByOwner.com