825 Bluffview · Cleburne, TX 76031

$295,186

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 205 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 5,663 sqft lot $73/sqft · 7% below area Est $312k · 5% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21110131 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Taft features two primary suites, each with its own private bathroom—one located on the main level and the other on the upper level, providing ultimate flexibility and privacy. As you enter the Taft, you’ll pass a versatile office and a flexible room that can be customized to fit your needs. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with an island overlooks the dining area and spacious family room—creating the perfect space for family gatherings and entertaining. The main level also includes a primary suite off the family room, an additional bedroom, and a full bathroom, offering plenty of space for everyone. Upstairs, the second primary suite offers a private retreat, while 3 additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, a laundry room, and a spacious loft complete the upper level.

Key facts

• Flexible room
• Versatile office
• Private bathroom

Tags

• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• FLEXIBLE ROOM
• VERSATILE OFFICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-712 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (42.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (44.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Santa Fe El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 409 students, 91% FRL); Lowell Smith Jr Middle (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 929 students, 68% FRL); Cleburne H S (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 1,976 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 406 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $164,658 (44.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.34%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,190
• List price: $295,186
• Delta: -5.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
837 Eagles Nest Dr	0.07mi	5/2.5 (+2)	3,005 (-26%)	5mo	$264,990	$88	55
821 Sugartree Dr	0.06mi	5/3.5 (+2)	3,422 (-16%)	3mo	$325,000	$95	54
852 Eagles Nest Dr	0.09mi	5/2.5 (+2)	3,005 (-26%)	8mo	$272,339	$91	52
864 Eagles Nest Dr	0.10mi	5/2.5 (+2)	3,005 (-26%)	8mo	$273,588	$91	51
845 Eagles Nest Dr	0.08mi	5/3.5 (+2)	3,396 (-16%)	6mo	$275,990	$81	51
857 Eagles Nest Dr	0.11mi	5/3.5 (+2)	3,396 (-16%)	4mo	$279,990	$82	50
529 Tall Meadows Dr	0.08mi	5/2.5 (+2)	3,005 (-26%)	14mo	$308,990	$103	48
833 Sugartree Dr	0.06mi	5/3.5 (+2)	3,396 (-16%)	13mo	$305,990	$90	45
1625 County Road 700	1.71mi	5/3.0 (+2)	3,976 (-2%)	8mo	$1,250,000	$314	41
907 S Robinson St	2.00mi	3/3.0	3,121 (-23%)	4mo	$550,000	$176	33
1206 Honeysuckle Dr	2.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,571 (-12%)	4mo	$498,000	$139	33
1109 County Road 801b Rd	0.56mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,928 (-28%)	17mo	$486,000	$166	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-93,200
• Equity at exit: $44,013

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-139,550
• Equity at exit: $25,522

Cash invested: $82,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76031

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,548
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,627/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-712

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,548

Max offer price $169,332

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-545	-5% $-629	+0% $-712	+5% $-796	+10% $-880
Rent	-10% $-843	-5% $-777	+0% $-712	+5% $-647	+10% $-582
Rate	-1.0pp $-564	-0.5pp $-637	base $-712	+0.5pp $-789	+1.0pp $-867

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,796
• Closing costs: $8,856
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $295,186 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $295,186 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $295,186 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $295,186 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $295,186 Active 201 DOM
6. 2025-11-26
   price $295,186 878-char remark

   Show marketing remark (878 chars)

   MLS# 21110131 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Taft features two primary suites, each with its own private bathroom—one located on the main level and the other on the upper level, providing ultimate flexibility and privacy. As you enter the Taft, you’ll pass a versatile office and a flexible room that can be customized to fit your needs. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with an island overlooks the dining area and spacious family room—creating the perfect space for family gatherings and entertaining. The main level also includes a primary suite off the family room, an additional bedroom, and a full bathroom, offering plenty of space for everyone. Upstairs, the second primary suite offers a private retreat, while 3 additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, a laundry room, and a spacious loft complete the upper level.

7. 2025-11-11
   listed $298,087 Active 878-char remark

   Show marketing remark (878 chars)

   MLS# 21110131 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Taft features two primary suites, each with its own private bathroom—one located on the main level and the other on the upper level, providing ultimate flexibility and privacy. As you enter the Taft, you’ll pass a versatile office and a flexible room that can be customized to fit your needs. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with an island overlooks the dining area and spacious family room—creating the perfect space for family gatherings and entertaining. The main level also includes a primary suite off the family room, an additional bedroom, and a full bathroom, offering plenty of space for everyone. Upstairs, the second primary suite offers a private retreat, while 3 additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, a laundry room, and a spacious loft complete the upper level.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,627 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,402 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,775/yr (+$148/mo · 48.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,535
• − Property taxes: −$3,627
• − Insurance: −$1,476
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,587
• Taxable loss: −$14,108
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,386
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and attracts buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Santa Fe El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Ad Wheat Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Cleburne H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleburne, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• City population: 29,538
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,697
• Household income: $70,672
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.43%
• Current HPI: 277.598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $295,186 NTREIS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $298,087 NTREIS

Property tax history

+175.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,627 · +175.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.