475 County Road 4351 · Oak Grove, AR 72660

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1995 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect opportunity to own your own slice of countryside—just in time to plant a garden and grow those fresh, organic vegetables you’ve always dreamed of. Enjoy peaceful country living surrounded by nature, far from the noise and stress of the city. This charming starter home is ideal for anyone looking to begin a family or embrace a quieter, more intentional lifestyle. The acreage offers privacy, space, and endless potential for hobbies, or homesteading. Conveniently located only 30 minutes from Branson, Missouri, and 40 minutes from Roaring River State Park, you’ll have easy access to outdoor recreation, entertainment, and essential amenities while still enj

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee charged monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2 covered parking spaces; Has carport
• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane available; Public water; Septic tank / septic available
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One story; Skirted foundation; Metal roof; Located outside city limits; Road frontage on a county road
• Construction: Aluminum siding; 25+ years old
• Exterior features: Deck; Outbuilding; Gravel driveway; Partial fencing (fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range with smooth cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level (11.9 x 9); Bedroom on main level (9.6 x 15)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating with wall furnace; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments (blinds and drapes); Multiple living areas; Sunroom; Single-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Utility room on main level (5.2 x 5.4)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#370 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Green Forest School District (town): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #145 of 238 in AR (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Green Forest Elementary School (math 67% / reading 47%, grade C+, #49 of 454 statewide, top 12%, 479 students, 83% FRL); Green Forest Intermed School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 201 statewide, top 66%, 547 students, 71% FRL); Green Forest High School (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #228 of 292 statewide, top 79%, 441 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $119k implies a 693% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $22,888
• Equity at exit: $53,508

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $69,562
• Equity at exit: $82,462

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72660

• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $175	+0% $134	+5% $93	+10% $52
Rent	-10% $38	-5% $86	+0% $134	+5% $182	+10% $230
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $164	base $134	+0.5pp $103	+1.0pp $72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 735-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $119,000 Active 735-char remark
3. 2007-07-26
   soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,162
• − Management: −$1,162
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$73
• After-tax cash flow: $1,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Green Forest School District
• NCES district ID: 0506870
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,211
• Composite: 26.42/100
• National rank: #7225
• State rank: #145 of 238 in AR

Livability — Oak Grove

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #22288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 612

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,014 people
• By 2030: 28,006 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 28,242 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 29,169 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 33,935 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 39,497 · +41.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 30%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+32.3 2012: R+23.9 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+693.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $119,000 NWARMLS
• 2007-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $180 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.