1816 Clay Ave · Toledo, OH 43608

$44,888

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1902 4,200 sqft lot $29/sqft · 44% below area Est $80k · 44% under ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location, this home offers 1522 sq feet of living space ready for your personal touch. This home will require some repairs however the roof and furnace are newer. Situated across from newer homes it is ready to build equity with your improvements. Oversized garage offers extra storage space. Close to Expressway, bus line, shopping and schools.

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Newer roof
• Close to shopping

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER FURNACE
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• CLOSE TO EXPRESSWAY
• CLOSE TO BUS LINE
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,116/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 911% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,501 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.54%
• DSCR: 3.43
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,835
• List price: $44,888
• Delta: -43.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1809 Clay Ave	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,464 (-4%)	5mo	$148,000	$101	81
1849 Booth Ave	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,392 (-8%)	2mo	$155,000	$111	72
3334 Maher St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,511 (-1%)	19mo	$100,000	$66	66
3209 Jeannette Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,353 (-11%)	2mo	$71,000	$52	63
1016 E Central Ave	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,485 (-2%)	3mo	$27,500	$19	62
3405 Maher St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,293 (-15%)	2mo	$105,000	$81	51
3316 Jeannette Ave	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,296 (-15%)	8mo	$99,900	$77	51
1016 Homer Ave	0.53mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,683 (+11%)	2mo	$107,000	$64	49
1006 Woodward Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (-8%)	10mo	$63,500	$45	49
3323 Blackstone Dr	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-12%)	19mo	$82,000	$61	48
1023 Ketcham	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,331 (-12%)	14mo	$96,500	$73	42
908 E Manhattan Blvd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,736 (+14%)	5mo	$46,000	$26	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $30,132
• Equity at exit: $6,693

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.16×
• Total profit: $77,364
• Equity at exit: $3,881

Cash invested: $12,569 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43608

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $673/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $393

Max offer price $44,888

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,222
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3439 Jeannette Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1098	$1,095	$1.00	44d	1	0.43mi
830 Homer Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1208	$895	$0.74	44d	1	0.66mi
601 Chicago St Toledo, OH	3.0	2.0	1924	$1,300	$0.68	23d	1	0.70mi
3606 Doyle St Toledo, OH	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,100	$0.67	44d	1	0.73mi
710 E Lake St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,000	$0.81	14d	1	0.82mi
524 E Hudson St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1150	$895	$0.78	21d	1	1.05mi
524 E Hudson St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$825	$0.79	44d	1	1.05mi
516 E Hudson St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,098	$0.91	14d	1	1.07mi
1337 Moore St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1194	$995	$0.83	21d	1	1.15mi
424 E Lake St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1228	$1,075	$0.88	14d	1	1.17mi
2621 Chestnut St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1444	$1,250	$0.87	44d	1	1.30mi
1536 N Erie St Toledo, OH	4.0	1.0	1600	$1,300	$0.81	44d	1	1.32mi
1449 N Huron St Toledo, OH	4.0	2.0	1430	$1,045	$0.73	14d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,888 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,888 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,888 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,888 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,888 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,888 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,888 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,888 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $44,888 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $44,888 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,888 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,888 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,888 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,888 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $44,888 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    price $44,888 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Great location, this home offers 1522 sq feet of living space ready for your personal touch. This home will require some repairs however the roof and furnace are newer. Situated across from newer homes it is ready to build equity with your improvements. Oversized garage offers extra storage space. Close to Expressway, bus line, shopping and schools.

17. 2026-01-19
    listed $49,888 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Great location, this home offers 1522 sq feet of living space ready for your personal touch. This home will require some repairs however the roof and furnace are newer. Situated across from newer homes it is ready to build equity with your improvements. Oversized garage offers extra storage space. Close to Expressway, bus line, shopping and schools.

18. 2026-01-17
    historical
19. 2025-07-17
    listed $55,888 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,514
• − Property taxes: −$673
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $6,528
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,567
• After-tax cash flow: $5,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 13,593
• Household income: $29,275
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 911.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 25% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.73%
• Current HPI: 139.4964
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-19.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $44,888 NORIS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $49,888 NORIS
• 2026-01-17 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $55,888 NORIS

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,467 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.