127 Mcarthur Dr · Hinesville, GA 31313

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · Other · 157 Days on market

Built 1966 0.45 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this inviting and spacious single-story home tucked away on a quiet street in Hinesville. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and two flexible bonus spaces, this property delivers comfort, functionality, and room to spread out. A gently sloped wheelchair-accessible ramp at the front entrance provides added convenience and easy entry for all. Inside, you'll find a bright living area that leads into one of two bonus/flex rooms —ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. A second unpictured bonus room is located behind the curtained section just off the kitchen, giving you even more usable space and layout options. The kitchen offers generous cabinet storage, an eat-in d

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Bright living area
• 0.45 acre lot

Tags

• WHEELCHAIR-ACCESSIBLE RAMP
• TWO FLEXIBLE BONUS SPACES
• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• GENEROUS CABINET STORAGE
• PRIVATE WOODED BACKDROP
• SPACIOUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.2% in Hinesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,544
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,548
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,421/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,688

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $142	+0% $85	+5% $28	+10% $-28
Rent	-10% $-57	-5% $14	+0% $85	+5% $156	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $136	base $85	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
220 Garden Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.5	1323	$1,650	$1.25	45d	1	0.14mi
250 Garden Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	45d	1	0.19mi
727 S Main St Hinesville, GA	2.0–3.0	1.5	1286	$1,450	$1.13	45d	3	0.37mi
300 Brantley Dr Unit 137 Hinesville, GA	4.0	4.0	1696	$2,400	$1.42	45d	1	0.60mi
209 School House Rd Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,100	$1.17	45d	1	0.63mi
730 Dover Ln Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,700	$1.03	45d	1	0.82mi
662 Mahoney Rd Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,795	$1.50	45d	1	0.85mi
814 Lesa St Hinesville, GA	2.0	1.5	1152	$950	$0.82	45d	1	0.97mi
910 Brett Dr Hinesville, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0	957	$1,600	$1.67	45d	4	1.02mi
910 Brett Dr Hinesville, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0	957	$1,600	$1.67	46d	3	1.02mi
108 Cherokee Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,275	$1.06	45d	1	1.04mi
732 Fleming Rd Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.5	1348	$1,400	$1.04	45d	1	1.12mi
205 Bagley Ave Unit B Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1071	$1,850	$1.73	45d	1	1.14mi
172 Cherokee Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,550	$1.20	45d	1	1.14mi
1012 White Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	45d	1	1.23mi
710 Little John Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	45d	1	1.28mi
722 Robin Hood Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,500	$0.90	45d	1	1.31mi
905 King Air Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,750	$1.24	45d	1	1.36mi
912 Pineland Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,648	$1.15	45d	1	1.36mi
916 Mandarin Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,550	$1.08	45d	1	1.38mi
613 Franklin St Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,750	$1.20	45d	1	1.38mi
608 Palmetto St Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,700	$1.05	45d	1	1.39mi
960 Gulfstream Rd Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,150	$1.42	45d	1	1.40mi
1235 Peacock Trl Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1876	$2,150	$1.15	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   price $200,000
3. 2026-03-23
   status Active
4. 2026-03-14
   historical
5. 2025-11-13
   listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,421 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,421 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,421
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,339
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$561
• After-tax cash flow: $1,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hinesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #5200

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hinesville, GA
• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 42,838
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1693.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — HABR
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $200,000 HABR
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — HABR
• 2026-03-14 Delisted — HABR
• 2025-11-13 Listed $210,000 HABR

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,421 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.