12708 La Paz Ln · Austin, TX 78617

$289,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2007 6,011 sqft lot $110/sqft · 19% below area Est $356k · 19% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home was originally a 4 bedroom but several additional rooms were created by adding walls and doors. See attached showing original floor plan. Features covered patio and outdoor kitchen. Please note: There is NO survey and NO sellers disclosure

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Outdoor kitchen
• 6,011 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Del Valle El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 615 students, 89% FRL); Del Valle H S (math 17% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,354 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 3,460 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,381 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,952
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -18.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6512 Wagon Spring St	0.63mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,494 (-5%)	1mo	$365,000	$146	54
12312 Ferrystone Glen Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,633 (0%)	20mo	$400,000	$152	49
6813 Horseshoe Pond Dr	0.65mi	5/2.5	2,466 (-6%)	11mo	$359,000	$146	48
12001 Foley Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,369 (-10%)	11mo	$865,000	$365	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-81,378
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-132,674
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78617

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,407 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$665 /mo · $7,976/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,955

Max offer price $213,381

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-269	-5% $-351	+0% $-433	+5% $-515	+10% $-597
Rent	-10% $-623	-5% $-528	+0% $-433	+5% $-338	+10% $-243
Rate	-1.0pp $-287	-0.5pp $-359	base $-433	+0.5pp $-508	+1.0pp $-585

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6521 Carriage Pines Dr Del Valle, TX	5.0	3.5	2466	$2,500	$1.01	26d	1	0.59mi
6408 Wagon Spring St Del Valle, TX	4.0	3.0	2497	$2,495	$1.00	46d	1	0.60mi
5204 Bahan Dr Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.5	2640	$1,900	$0.72	5d	1	0.86mi
5032 Irvine Ln Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.5	2499	$2,200	$0.88	24d	1	0.92mi
4917 Stockton Ln Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.5	2334	$2,400	$1.03	46d	1	1.02mi
11800 Savanna Canyon Ct Del Valle, TX	4.0	3.0	2322	$2,050	$0.88	6d	1	1.04mi
5600 War Admiral Dr Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.5	2101	$2,200	$1.05	5d	1	1.09mi
13817 Gilwell Dr Del Valle, TX	4.0	3.0	1878	$2,195	$1.17	46d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $289,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $299,900 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Home was originally a 4 bedroom but several additional rooms were created by adding walls and doors. See attached showing original floor plan. Features covered patio and outdoor kitchen. Please note: There is NO survey and NO sellers disclosure

16. 2026-04-11
    price $309,900 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Home was originally a 4 bedroom but several additional rooms were created by adding walls and doors. See attached showing original floor plan. Features covered patio and outdoor kitchen. Please note: There is NO survey and NO sellers disclosure

17. 2026-02-25
    price $319,900 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Home was originally a 4 bedroom but several additional rooms were created by adding walls and doors. See attached showing original floor plan. Features covered patio and outdoor kitchen. Please note: There is NO survey and NO sellers disclosure

18. 2026-02-24
    listed $296,500 Active 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    Home was originally a 4 bedroom but several additional rooms were created by adding walls and doors. See attached showing original floor plan. Features covered patio and outdoor kitchen. Please note: There is NO survey and NO sellers disclosure

19. 2025-01-05
    historical $650
20. 2025-01-01
    listed $650
21. 2025-01-01
    historical $650
22. 2024-12-28
    price $650
23. 2024-12-21
    price $695
24. 2024-10-26
    price $700
25. 2024-09-25
    listed $850
26. 2024-09-25
    historical $850
27. 2024-09-22
    listed $850
28. 2024-09-22
    historical $850
29. 2024-09-21
    listed $850
30. 2024-09-21
    historical $850
31. 2024-05-28
    soldstatus
32. 2024-05-22
    listed $850
33. 2024-03-28
    status Active
34. 2023-12-05
    price
35. 2023-11-15
    listed Active
36. 2022-06-02
    soldstatus
37. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus Closed
38. 2022-04-23
    status Pending
39. 2022-04-19
    historical Active Under Contract
40. 2022-04-12
    listed $410,000 Active
41. 2016-05-25
    soldstatus
42. 2012-03-13
    soldstatus
43. 2012-03-13
    soldstatus
44. 2012-03-13
    soldstatus
45. 2007-06-21
    soldstatus
46. 2007-05-14
    historical
47. 2007-03-07
    listed $171,815

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,976 · $665/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,976 · $665/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$7,976
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,311
• − Management: −$2,311
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$10,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,444
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,756
• Household income: $71,640
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 681.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 33% White 16% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.24%
• Current HPI: 192.3518
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+74.5% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $299,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $309,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $319,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $296,500 Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-05 Rental Removed $650 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-01-01 Listed for Rent $650 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-01-01 Rental Removed $650 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-12-28 Price Changed $650 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-12-21 Price Changed $695 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-10-26 Price Changed $700 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-09-25 Listed for Rent $850 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-09-25 Rental Removed $850 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-22 Listed for Rent $850 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-22 Rental Removed $850 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-21 Listed for Rent $850 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-21 Rental Removed $850 BUILDIUM
• 2024-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-22 Listed for Rent $850 BUILDIUM
• 2024-03-28 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2023-12-05 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-11-15 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-26 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2022-04-23 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2022-04-19 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2022-04-12 Listed $410,000 Unlock MLS
• 2016-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-06-21 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2007-05-14 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2007-03-07 Listed $171,815 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,976 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.