1514 Cheston Dr · Jacinto City, TX 77029

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1950 0.29 ac lot Est $151k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

DO NOT ENTER THE BUILDING. DRIVE BY SHOWINGS ONLY. A SHOWING WILL AVAILABLE DURING OPTION PERIOD

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#384 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Acres Middle (math 35% / reading 34%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 603 students, 85% FRL); Galena Park H S (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,914 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.25%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,675
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1514 Cheston Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,025 (0%)	0mo	$90,000	$88	100
11509 Lord St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,077 (+5%)	4mo	$119,000	$110	73
11201 Muscatine St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,066 (+4%)	2mo	$129,900	$122	71
1726 Jennifer Ln	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-2%)	13mo	$210,000	$210	70
1622 Jennifer Ln	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,121 (+9%)	8mo	$163,000	$145	67
10701 Pillot St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,098 (+7%)	5mo	$130,000	$118	62
11117 Oswego St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,087 (+6%)	13mo	$169,000	$155	60
10909 Oswego St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+6%)	9mo	$160,000	$147	58
1450 Maryknoll Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5	937 (-9%)	1mo	$175,000	$187	56
10718 Pillot St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,085 (+6%)	16mo	$219,000	$202	54
10713 Burman St	0.43mi	3/2.0	933 (-9%)	14mo	$159,000	$170	49
12153 Coulson Cir	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,164 (+14%)	8mo	$165,000	$142	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $70,840
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.61×
• Total profit: $191,706
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77029

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,742/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $934

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $367	+0% $341	+5% $316	+10% $290
Rent	-10% $233	-5% $287	+0% $341	+5% $395	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $387	-0.5pp $364	base $341	+0.5pp $318	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12200 Fleming Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	842	$1,265	$1.50	0d	30	0.93mi
12006 Fleming Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	816	$1,025	$1.26	25d	1	1.01mi
768 Coolwood Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1102	$1,295	$1.18	44d	1	1.02mi
778 Coolwood Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	44d	1	1.04mi
10208 Challenger 7 Dr Jacinto City, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,190	$1.32	44d	1	1.04mi
10202 Challenger 7 Dr Unit 10259 Jacinto City, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	0d	1	1.08mi
10202 Challenger 7 Dr Unit 424 Jacinto City, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,115	$1.24	6d	1	1.08mi
10202 Challenger 7 Dr Unit 422 Jacinto City, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,115	$1.24	8d	1	1.08mi
10202 Challenger 7 Dr Unit 2047 Jacinto City, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	12d	1	1.09mi
734 Coolwood Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,295	$1.29	44d	1	1.10mi
12221 Fleming Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	827	$1,089	$1.32	19d	19	1.14mi
676 Maxey Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	968	$1,060	$1.10	19d	1	1.24mi
676 Maxey Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	968	$1,060	$1.10	23d	1	1.24mi
670 Maxey Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,380	$1.47	8d	15	1.26mi
9907 Lanewell St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,154	$1.32	23d	1	1.26mi
664 Maxey Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	783	$1,150	$1.47	8d	37	1.36mi
9806 Fillmore St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	44d	1	1.41mi
9709 Cargill St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,300	$1.94	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $90,000 Active
3. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,742 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,742 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,742
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,311
• − Management: −$1,311
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,918
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$700
• After-tax cash flow: $3,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galena Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820250
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,158
• Composite: 27.62/100
• National rank: #6927
• State rank: #578 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jacinto City

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #384
• US rank: #8027

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacinto City, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 16,154
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,154
• Household income: $48,279
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 457.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 32% Black 22% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.53%
• Current HPI: 276.1811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,742 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.