TBD 663 Road 5252 · Dayton, TX 77327

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 982 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 1980 0.90 ac lot $122/sqft · 6% below area Est $127k · 6% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 adjacent lots in planned community of Colony Ridge with lots of amenities. It provides plenty of room to build a single family home on each lot. Manufactured home allowed on the lot. Campers and RVs be parked within the garage or parked in the rear of the house once built. The lot is cleared with a driveaway and is partially fenced. The lots provides ample space to have a big yard to keep horses, chickens, pigs, plant a huge garden, grow fruit trees, have a pool, and enjoy the peace of country living. It is near modern conveniences. Has low taxes of 1.85 and NO MUD. Valley Ranch Town Center is nearby for shopping & dining. Utilities avaialbe at the road.

Key facts

• Big yard
• Utilities available
• Cleared lot

Tags

• PLANNED COMMUNITY
• MANUFACTURED HOME ALLOWED
• CLEARED LOT
• PARTIALLY FENCED
• BIG YARD
• UTILITIES AVAILABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.83%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,003
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -22.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5177 Road 5210	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+8%)	0mo	$107,900	$101	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,904
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $23,010
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,214/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $271	+0% $237	+5% $203	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $126	-5% $182	+0% $237	+5% $292	+10% $347
Rate	-1.0pp $297	-0.5pp $267	base $237	+0.5pp $206	+1.0pp $174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	16d	1	0.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Pending 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Pending 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Pending 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Pending 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Pending 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Pending 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Pending 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Pending 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Pending 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Pending 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    status $120,000 Pending 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $120,000 Active 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    2 adjacent lots in planned community of Colony Ridge with lots of amenities. It provides plenty of room to build a single family home on each lot. Manufactured home allowed on the lot. Campers and RVs be parked within the garage or parked in the rear of the house once built. The lot is cleared with a driveaway and is partially fenced. The lots provides ample space to have a big yard to keep horses, chickens, pigs, plant a huge garden, grow fruit trees, have a pool, and enjoy the peace of country living. It is near modern conveniences. Has low taxes of 1.85 and NO MUD. Valley Ranch Town Center is nearby for shopping & dining. Utilities avaialbe at the road.

16. 2026-02-27
    listed $99,000 Active 987-char remark

    Show marketing remark (987 chars)

    Remodeled PLUMBING and ELECTRIC, 2 bedroom, 2 full baths manufactured home on 19,602 square feet, .45 acre lot. Covered porch. Open concept, spacious family room w light streaming from windows on both sides, kitchen on the left side and window above the sink overlooking the yard. Bedrooms are 13X10. Bedroom nearest family room has bathroom, AC unit, 3 windows & a nook to build a closet or place a wardrobe/tall chest of drawers. Bedroom nearest kitchen has 2 windows and closet. Between kitchen and second bedroom, there is an AC unit, a bathroom w shower, vanity, 3 charming small windows. Outside of it, washer & dryer electrical connection. Across from it a back door opening to a small balcony. Ample space in the yard to keep horses, chickens, pigs, plant a garden, grow fruit trees, have a pool, & enjoy the peace of country living, near modern conveniences, besides lower taxes. Near Valley Ranch Town Center for shopping & dining. With the adjacent lot $130K.

17. 2025-12-01
    historical $1,100
18. 2025-10-31
    historical
19. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,100
20. 2025-06-30
    historical $1,100
21. 2025-06-20
    listed $1,100
22. 2025-04-21
    price $135,000
23. 2025-02-10
    listed $150,000 Active
24. 2024-08-22
    historical
25. 2024-05-19
    listed $149,900 Active
26. 2024-04-12
    historical $1,200
27. 2024-01-15
    listed $1,200
28. 2024-01-01
    historical $950
29. 2023-11-17
    price $950
30. 2023-11-16
    listed $1,100
31. 2023-10-23
    historical $1,100
32. 2023-10-12
    listed $1,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,214 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$982/yr (+$82/mo · 80.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,214
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,341
• − Management: −$1,341
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,018
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$244
• After-tax cash flow: $2,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10809.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Rental Removed $1,100 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,100 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $1,100 HARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed for Rent $1,100 HARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-10 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-19 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2024-04-12 Rental Removed $1,200 HARMLS
• 2024-01-15 Listed for Rent $1,200 HARMLS
• 2024-01-01 Rental Removed $950 HARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Price Changed $950 HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed for Rent $1,100 HARMLS
• 2023-10-23 Rental Removed $1,100 HARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Listed for Rent $1,100 HARMLS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,214 · -10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.