2822 Frederick Ave · Baltimore, MD 21223

$159,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Townhouse · 10 Days on market

Built 1910 1,196 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated two-bedroom, one bath rowhome on Frederick Ave! This spacious home features central A/C, hardwood floors, tons of recessed lighting, fresh paint throughout, and brand new carpets in the bedrooms. The kitchen offers wood cabinets, granite countertops, and sleek black appliances. Ample basement storage. Conveniently located near Gwynns Falls Park and public transportation. Move-in ready—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Built 1910
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is in city limits (Baltimore City); Located near Font Hill Avenue; Transit: bus stops within 1 mile; metro/subway 1–3 miles; commuter rail 1–5 miles; Total below-grade area estimated at 200 (unfinished); Above-grade finished area estimated at 1,000
• Financial info: Ground rent: $78 annually; Improvement assessed value and land assessed value listed (estimated); Annual county tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Municipal trash service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Flat roof; Estimated year built
• Construction: Brick and combination construction materials; Brick/mortar foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Street lights; Patio(s); Ground rent exists (paid annually)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (all upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Dry wall and brick walls and ceilings; Unfinished partial basement with interior access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups on upper floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,584 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.00%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2637 Dulany St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	972 (-3%)	6mo	$35,000	$36	73
1052 Parksley Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,050 (+5%)	4mo	$110,000	$105	66
2708 Wilkens Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (+9%)	8mo	$55,000	$50	62
2402 Wilkens Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+9%)	0mo	$45,000	$41	62
3140 Strickland St	0.40mi	2/1.0	904 (-10%)	6mo	$103,000	$114	60
419 Furrow St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (-2%)	6mo	$41,000	$42	58
119 Hilton St	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+4%)	0mo	$211,000	$203	56
2408 Wilkens Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (+9%)	2mo	$99,900	$91	52
3386 Dulany St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (+1%)	6mo	$169,000	$167	50
205 S Bentalou St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+8%)	5mo	$38,500	$36	48
3367 Dulany St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,054 (+5%)	7mo	$166,000	$157	45
420 S Smallwood St	0.63mi	3/3.5 (+1)	910 (-9%)	4mo	$100,000	$110	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,634
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $46,001
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21223

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,213

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2738 Wilkens Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1183	$1,500	$1.27	44d	1	0.23mi
2657 Lehman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,000	$0.95	44d	1	0.24mi
2737 Wilkens Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1232	$1,650	$1.34	4d	1	0.25mi
2671 Saint Benedict St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1144	$1,325	$1.16	44d	1	0.28mi
3130 Stafford St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	20d	1	0.33mi
332 S Franklintown Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	776	$795	$1.02	24d	1	0.35mi
2540 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,400	$1.30	24d	1	0.39mi
110 S Catherine St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1330	$1,500	$1.13	44d	1	0.51mi
2537 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	24d	1	0.54mi
2516 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.58mi
3336 W Caton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,625	$1.31	24d	1	0.69mi
307 S Smallwood St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1400	$1,350	$0.96	44d	1	0.70mi
3310 Elbert St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	920	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	0.73mi
3392 Saint Benedict St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	24d	1	0.74mi
2225 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	0.79mi
62 N Gorman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	18d	1	0.79mi
2232 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,875	$1.50	24d	1	0.80mi
41 N Kossuth St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	24d	1	0.80mi
514 S Payson St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,750	$1.38	44d	1	0.82mi
147 Denison St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	1370	$1,100	$0.80	24d	1	0.94mi
2609 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	24d	1	0.96mi
2636 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,900	$1.54	44d	1	0.98mi
1918 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,375	$1.60	44d	1	1.01mi
1912 W Baltimore St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,100	$1.75	24d	1	1.02mi
3607 W Lexington St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	4d	1	1.03mi
212 S Loudon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1310	$1,550	$1.18	44d	1	1.05mi
2429 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	940	$600	$0.64	24d	1	1.07mi
1839 W Fayette St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1426	$1,675	$1.17	24d	1	1.09mi
1931 Griffis Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	912	$1,349	$1.48	4d	1	1.10mi
4018 Massachusetts Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	24d	1	1.10mi
2012 W Saratoga St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	24d	1	1.11mi
304 Collins Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1016	$2,100	$2.07	44d	1	1.11mi
304 Collins Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	845	$1,600	$1.89	44d	1	1.11mi
3423 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1400	$1,710	$1.22	44d	1	1.15mi
3015 Rayner Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	44d	1	1.15mi
1635 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,850	$1.51	44d	1	1.17mi
1846 W Saratoga St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,300	$1.04	44d	1	1.21mi
709 Denison St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	840	$1,630	$1.94	24d	1	1.22mi
2056 Griffis Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,495	$1.22	22d	1	1.23mi
3706 W Franklin St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	735	$1,100	$1.50	4d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $159,900 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Coming Soon 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Coming Soon 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,900 Coming Soon 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Coming Soon 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    historical $159,900
15. 2026-04-15
    historical
16. 2026-01-05
    price $60,000
17. 2025-12-16
    price $65,000
18. 2025-12-13
    price $69,900
19. 2025-12-11
    listed $74,900 Active
20. 1987-11-19
    soldstatus $200,000
21. 1982-12-27
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,189 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$554/yr (+$46/mo · 87.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $36
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9
• After-tax cash flow: $2,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 19,572
• Household income: $45,840
• Rent vs Own: 68.0% rent · 32.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1755.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.99%
• Current HPI: 140.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+399.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Coming Soon $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $74,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1987-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1982-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $634 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.