1100 Selene Sky · Fulshear, TX 77423

$279,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,129 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,266 sqft lot Garage $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dawson floor plan offers a spacious and versatile two-story design with 2,129 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space. Featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this home provides the perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and style. The open-concept main floor creates a warm and inviting atmosphere, connecting the kitchen, dining, and family areas- ideal for entertaining or spending quality time together. The modern kitchen includes abundant cabinetry, ample counter space, and a central island, making it a perfect hub for everyday meals and gatherings. A first-floor bedroom and full bathroom add flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite serves as a private retreat with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath featuring dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms and a secondary bathroom provide plenty of room for family or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room and thoughtfully designed storage areas enhance daily convenience. With its open living spaces, private upstairs retreat, and flexible layout, the Dawson floor plan is ideal for growing families seeking both comfort and versatility in a modern, efficient home design.

Key facts

• Community with pool
• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio

Tags

• GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY WITH POOL
• COMMUNITY WITH PLAYGROUND

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $341,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-471 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.7% in Fulshear — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $250,004 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.91%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,990
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -10.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3048 Helios Haven Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,170 (+2%)	3mo	$324,990	$150	81
3037 Duskshine Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (-5%)	0mo	$255,990	$127	72
3032 Helios Haven Dr	0.19mi	5/2.0	1,942 (-9%)	3mo	$279,990	$144	70
2000 Solstice Landing Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,263 (+6%)	1mo	$255,991	$113	70
3100 Duskshine Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (-5%)	1mo	$248,991	$124	69
3092 Duskshine Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,263 (+6%)	2mo	$275,990	$122	67
3053 Helios Haven Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (-4%)	2mo	$322,670	$159	66
1016 Star Skye Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,912 (-10%)	1mo	$330,800	$173	56
1040 Star Skye Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,912 (-10%)	2mo	$341,040	$178	53
2084 Blue Mar Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,428 (+14%)	2mo	$469,997	$194	50
1084 Sunlit Cir	0.64mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,012 (-6%)	3mo	$309,900	$154	50
1001 Sunlit Cir	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,406 (+13%)	3mo	$363,540	$151	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-92,678
• Equity at exit: $50,992

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-147,315
• Equity at exit: $29,569

Cash invested: $95,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 116 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.9 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,990 ($154/sqft)
• Median days on market: 88 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,793
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$427 /mo · $5,130/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,097

Max offer price $273,780

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-353	+0% $-471	+5% $-590	+10% $-708
Rent	-10% $-669	-5% $-570	+0% $-471	+5% $-373	+10% $-274
Rate	-1.0pp $-299	-0.5pp $-384	base $-471	+0.5pp $-560	+1.0pp $-650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,498
• Closing costs: $10,260
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Community managed by Sunterra Property MgtAssociation fee $1,000 annuallyCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 car spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (under construction)South-facing
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardBack yard fencingSprinkler/irrigationTennis court(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveKitchen islandQuartz countersBreakfast barPantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 12)Bedroom on second floor (11 x 10)Bedroom on second floor (11 x 10)Bedroom on second floor (13 x 11)Bedroom on second floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsDouble vanity(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Programmable thermostatHVACRadiant attic barrierInsulation
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen and family room comboPantryQuartz countersCeiling fansKitchen and dining comboLiving and dining roomProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $279,990 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $279,990 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $284,990 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $284,990 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $284,990 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $284,990 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $284,990 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $284,990 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $284,990 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $284,990 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $284,990 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $284,990 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $284,990 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $284,990 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $304,990 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $304,990 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $304,990 Active 40 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $304,990 Active 38 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $304,990 Active 36 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $304,990 Active 35 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $304,990 Active 34 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $304,990 Active 33 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $304,990 Active 32 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $304,990 Active 31 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $304,990 Active 30 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $304,990 Active 29 DOM

    Show marketing remark (1244 chars)

    The Dawson floor plan offers a spacious and versatile two-story design with 2,129 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space. Featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this home provides the perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and style. The open-concept main floor creates a warm and inviting atmosphere, connecting the kitchen, dining, and family areas- ideal for entertaining or spending quality time together. The modern kitchen includes abundant cabinetry, ample counter space, and a central island, making it a perfect hub for everyday meals and gatherings. A first-floor bedroom and full bathroom add flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite serves as a private retreat with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath featuring dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms and a secondary bathroom provide plenty of room for family or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room and thoughtfully designed storage areas enhance daily convenience. With its open living spaces, private upstairs retreat, and flexible layout, the Dawson floor plan is ideal for growing families seeking both comfort and versatility in a modern, efficient home design.

27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $304,990 Active 28 DOM

    Show marketing remark (1244 chars)

    The Dawson floor plan offers a spacious and versatile two-story design with 2,129 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space. Featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this home provides the perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and style. The open-concept main floor creates a warm and inviting atmosphere, connecting the kitchen, dining, and family areas- ideal for entertaining or spending quality time together. The modern kitchen includes abundant cabinetry, ample counter space, and a central island, making it a perfect hub for everyday meals and gatherings. A first-floor bedroom and full bathroom add flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite serves as a private retreat with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath featuring dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms and a secondary bathroom provide plenty of room for family or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room and thoughtfully designed storage areas enhance daily convenience. With its open living spaces, private upstairs retreat, and flexible layout, the Dawson floor plan is ideal for growing families seeking both comfort and versatility in a modern, efficient home design.

28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $304,990 Active 27 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $304,990 Active 26 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    price $304,990 Active 25 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 25 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $309,990 Active 24 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $309,990 Active 23 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $309,990 Active 22 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $309,990 Active 21 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $309,990 Active 20 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $309,990 Active 19 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $309,990 Active 18 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $309,990 Active 17 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $309,990 Active 16 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $309,990 Active 15 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $309,990 Active 13 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $309,990 Active 12 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 11 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 10 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 7 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $309,990 Active 5 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 4 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on marketlisting id $309,990 Active 2 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,157
• − Property taxes: −$5,130
• − Insurance: −$1,710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$9,949
• Taxable loss: −$11,741
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern design and ample living space. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Rental Installing new flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can attract renters and improve rental value ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract both buyers and renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Community managed by Sunterra Property MgtAssociation fee $1,000 annuallyCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 car spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (under construction)South-facing
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardBack yard fencingSprinkler/irrigationTennis court(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveKitchen islandQuartz countersBreakfast barPantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 12)Bedroom on second floor (11 x 10)Bedroom on second floor (11 x 10)Bedroom on second floor (13 x 11)Bedroom on second floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsDouble vanity(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Programmable thermostatHVACRadiant attic barrierInsulation
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen and family room comboPantryQuartz countersCeiling fansKitchen and dining comboLiving and dining roomProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-22 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-08-21 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-08-21 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-08-18 Price Changed $304,990 HARMLS
• 2026-07-24 Listed $309,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listed $309,990 Zillow