15243 W Camino Estrella Dr · Surprise, AZ 85374

$409,950

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,870 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2001 8,918 sqft lot $219/sqft · 19% below area Est $503k · 19% under $160/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully maintained Palo Verde model home in Surprise offers 1,870 square feet of well-designed living space, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Recently refreshed with full interior paint, the home presents a clean and airy feel that is move-in ready. The open-concept layout provides a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas--ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with high-end appliances, offering both functionality and style for any home chef. The spacious primary suite includes a private en-suite bathroom and generous closet space, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or family needs. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard, perfect for privacy, pets, and outdoor gatherings. Located in the desirable Surprise area, this Palo Verde model combines comfort, quality upgrades, and thoughtful design--making it an exceptional opportunity for buyers seeking a turnkey home.

Key facts

• High-end appliances
• Palo verde model
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• PALO VERDE MODEL
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• HIGH-END APPLIANCES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 399 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($385k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $289k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,090 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $503,250
• List price: $409,950
• Delta: -18.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15407 W Camino Estrella Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,934 (+3%)	2mo	$749,000	$387	82
15463 W Prairie Dunes Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,929 (+3%)	2mo	$526,000	$273	70
15109 W Rounders Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (+4%)	2mo	$438,000	$226	69
15437 W Moonlight Way	0.27mi	3/3.0	2,108 (+13%)	2mo	$575,000	$273	65
15142 W Waterford Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (+7%)	0mo	$380,000	$190	61
14875 W Medinah Ct	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-2%)	2mo	$435,000	$237	60
19719 N Desert Song Way	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,613 (-14%)	2mo	$415,000	$257	60
15478 W Moonlight Way	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-9%)	2mo	$414,000	$243	60
15230 W Cascade Ct	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,014 (+8%)	0mo	$461,500	$229	56
15357 W Paradiso Ct	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,934 (+3%)	2mo	$530,000	$274	53
15533 W Brighton Way	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (-5%)	1mo	$410,000	$230	50
15624 W Azalea Ln	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,620 (-13%)	2mo	$430,000	$265	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-99,381
• Equity at exit: $61,125

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-149,872
• Equity at exit: $35,445

Cash invested: $114,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,861 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,041/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,355

Max offer price $340,946

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,488
• Closing costs: $12,298
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15104 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1512	$3,850	$2.55	43d	1	0.20mi
15082 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1645	$3,500	$2.13	43d	1	0.23mi
15042 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,800	$1.98	43d	1	0.26mi
15448 W Moonlight Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1262	$4,200	$3.33	43d	1	0.33mi
15033 W Home Run Dr Unit 1545708P Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,419	$1.73	15d	1	0.37mi
18614 N Summerbreeze Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	18d	1	0.58mi
15628 W Hidden Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,600	$2.21	43d	1	0.72mi
15732 W Spring Tree Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,500	$1.81	43d	1	0.74mi
17923 N Reno Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,695	$1.32	1d	1	0.76mi
15619 W Vista Grande Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1370	$3,500	$2.55	43d	1	0.79mi
20054 N Painted Sky Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1598	$3,200	$2.00	24d	1	0.80mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$3,750	$2.79	11d	9	0.85mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$3,750	$2.79	4d	8	0.85mi
14720 W Lamoille Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1521	$1,805	$1.19	43d	1	0.86mi
14720 W Lamoille Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1521	$1,785	$1.17	21d	1	0.86mi
14725 W Lamoille Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1521	$1,869	$1.23	2d	1	0.86mi
15285 W Melissa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,090	$1.39	43d	1	0.87mi
17824 N Stone Haven Dr Unit 1546271P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	2012	$1,817	$0.90	12d	1	0.88mi
15913 W Clearwater Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1546	$3,000	$1.94	43d	1	0.91mi
15306 W Eureka Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,999	$1.55	43d	1	0.92mi
17783 N El Dorado Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1647	$2,100	$1.28	43d	1	1.05mi
17927 N Parkview Pl Surprise, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,803	$1.83	1d	8	1.06mi
15866 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$3,200	$2.26	43d	1	1.10mi
15883 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,200	$1.56	43d	1	1.14mi
17311 N Kimberly Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	2337	$5,000	$2.14	43d	1	1.25mi
14543 W Bison Path Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1684	$2,300	$1.37	43d	1	1.29mi
18121 N Key Estrella Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1909	$3,500	$1.83	43d	1	1.32mi
20813 N 147th Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1733	$4,500	$2.60	15d	1	1.33mi
17116 N Princess Pl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1702	$1,799	$1.06	24d	1	1.36mi
15847 W Bridgewood Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2200	$3,850	$1.75	43d	1	1.36mi
15160 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,895	$1.19	24d	1	1.37mi
16149 W Quail Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	43d	1	1.37mi
20046 N Hearthstone Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,800	$1.96	43d	1	1.38mi
16248 W Tuscany Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1909	$2,500	$1.31	43d	1	1.39mi
14327 W Lamoille Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1716	$1,810	$1.05	3d	1	1.39mi
16270 W Cactus Valley Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1338	$1,875	$1.40	43d	1	1.42mi
16426 W Boulder Vista Dr Unit 1546454P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$4,436	$2.73	15d	1	1.46mi
16171 W Wildflower Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1278	$3,200	$2.50	18d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $409,950 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $409,950 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $409,950 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $409,950 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $409,950 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $409,950 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $409,950 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $409,950 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $409,950 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $409,950 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $409,950 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $409,950 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $424,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $424,000 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    This beautifully maintained Palo Verde model home in Surprise offers 1,870 square feet of well-designed living space, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Recently refreshed with full interior paint, the home presents a clean and airy feel that is move-in ready. The open-concept layout provides a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas--ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with high-end appliances, offering both functionality and style for any home chef. The spacious primary suite includes a private en-suite bathroom and generous closet space, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or family needs. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard, perfect for privacy, pets, and outdoor gatherings. Located in the desirable Surprise area, this Palo Verde model combines comfort, quality upgrades, and thoughtful design--making it an exceptional opportunity for buyers seeking a turnkey home.

16. 2026-04-18
    listed $439,900 Active 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    This beautifully maintained Palo Verde model home in Surprise offers 1,870 square feet of well-designed living space, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Recently refreshed with full interior paint, the home presents a clean and airy feel that is move-in ready. The open-concept layout provides a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas--ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with high-end appliances, offering both functionality and style for any home chef. The spacious primary suite includes a private en-suite bathroom and generous closet space, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or family needs. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard, perfect for privacy, pets, and outdoor gatherings. Located in the desirable Surprise area, this Palo Verde model combines comfort, quality upgrades, and thoughtful design--making it an exceptional opportunity for buyers seeking a turnkey home.

17. 2019-04-08
    soldstatus $289,000 Closed 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Popular Palo Verde model located in a very convenient area of Sun City Grand. Split floor plan with 2 bedrooms and den. Extended patio with knee wall and retractable awning. Extended length Garage with cabinets, utility sink and water softner. Granite tile countertops in kitchen with bay window in breakfast nook and master bedroom. Tile on the diagonal in Great Room. Master Bath has double sinks, roomy walk in closet, large shower with bench. This home is priced to sell - come take a look for yourself!

18. 2019-04-08
    soldstatus $289,000

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Popular Palo Verde model located in a very convenient area of Sun City Grand. Split floor plan with 2 bedrooms and den. Extended patio with knee wall and retractable awning. Extended length Garage with cabinets, utility sink and water softner. Granite tile countertops in kitchen with bay window in breakfast nook and master bedroom. Tile on the diagonal in Great Room. Master Bath has double sinks, roomy walk in closet, large shower with bench. This home is priced to sell - come take a look for yourself!

19. 2019-03-09
    status Pending 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Popular Palo Verde model located in a very convenient area of Sun City Grand. Split floor plan with 2 bedrooms and den. Extended patio with knee wall and retractable awning. Extended length Garage with cabinets, utility sink and water softner. Granite tile countertops in kitchen with bay window in breakfast nook and master bedroom. Tile on the diagonal in Great Room. Master Bath has double sinks, roomy walk in closet, large shower with bench. This home is priced to sell - come take a look for yourself!

20. 2019-03-01
    listed $289,000 Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Popular Palo Verde model located in a very convenient area of Sun City Grand. Split floor plan with 2 bedrooms and den. Extended patio with knee wall and retractable awning. Extended length Garage with cabinets, utility sink and water softner. Granite tile countertops in kitchen with bay window in breakfast nook and master bedroom. Tile on the diagonal in Great Room. Master Bath has double sinks, roomy walk in closet, large shower with bench. This home is priced to sell - come take a look for yourself!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,706 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$665/yr (+$55/mo · 32.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,041
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,746
• − Management: −$2,746
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$11,926
• Taxable loss: −$12,062
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,895
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+46.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $424,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $439,900 ARMLS
• 2019-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $289,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-08 Sold (MLS) $289,000 ARMLS
• 2019-03-09 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-03-01 Listed $289,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,041 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.