809 Cottonwood St · Grand Forks, ND 58201

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1888 3,562 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tired of making your landlord rich? Want to own your own home? Great starter home in the heart of GF. Updated kitchen with new appliances, countertops and cabinets. Fenced backyard and detached oversized single stall garage. Monthly mortgage payment $463 + insurance and taxes! (Terms: $100,000 price; 3.5% down payment; 4% interest rate; 30 year. ) Contact lender about down payment assistance

Key facts

• 3,562 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1888

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage with space for 1 car
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.2% in Grand Forks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#8 in ND, #2,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+.
• Grand Forks 1 (urban): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #27 of 53 in ND (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 133 units permitted in Grand Forks County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand Forks County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1888 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1888 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.50%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1208 Walnut St	0.26mi	2/1.0	920 (+3%)	0mo	$199,000	$216	83
701 Cottonwood St	0.10mi	2/1.0	832 (-7%)	1mo	$229,000	$275	82
621 Chestnut St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	966 (+8%)	3mo	$285,000	$295	66
1101 Cherry St	0.22mi	2/1.0	768 (-14%)	0mo	$180,000	$234	66
1426 S 9th St	0.56mi	2/1.0	936 (+4%)	3mo	$229,900	$246	64
1002 Walnut St	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,024 (+14%)	9mo	$199,000	$194	58
1007 2nd Ave N	0.63mi	2/1.0	851 (-5%)	6mo	$100,000	$118	57
1009 S 11th St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	952 (+6%)	8mo	$259,900	$273	54
1405 Cherry St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	824 (-8%)	10mo	$185,000	$225	49
1015 2nd Ave N	0.64mi	2/1.5	823 (-8%)	8mo	$145,000	$176	48
1010 10th St S	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	780 (-13%)	9mo	$192,900	$247	44
1023 Letnes Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	952 (+6%)	10mo	$265,000	$278	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $15,617
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $78,121
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58201

• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $444/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $799

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $464	-5% $434	+0% $404	+5% $374	+10% $345
Rent	-10% $301	-5% $352	+0% $404	+5% $456	+10% $508
Rate	-1.0pp $457	-0.5pp $431	base $404	+0.5pp $377	+1.0pp $349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33 S 3rd St Grand Forks, ND	1.0	1.0	740	$925	$1.25	44d	1	0.78mi
214 N 4th St Grand Forks, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,897	$1.95	44d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $105,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   listed $105,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $444 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$585/yr (+$49/mo · 131.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$444
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $3,308
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$794
• After-tax cash flow: $4,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grand Forks 1
• NCES district ID: 3808130
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,234
• Composite: 36.39/100
• National rank: #4681
• State rank: #27 of 53 in ND

Livability — Grand Forks

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #2645

Category grades

Amenities B Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grand Forks, ND
• County: Grand Forks County · 58,851 people
• City population: 58,851
• Metro: Grand Forks, ND-MN
• Population (ZIP): 42,373
• Household income: $68,143
• Rent vs Own: 50.3% rent · 49.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2110.0

Population outlook (Grand Forks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,606 people
• By 2030: 86,489 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 99,506 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 115,269 · +43.0%
• By 2075: 171,303 · +112.5%
• By 2100: 238,330 · +195.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand Forks

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.1% · R 58.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+13.3 2016: R+18.5 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.56%
• Current HPI: 183.128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.31%
• Metro: Grand Forks, ND-MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+5.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $105,000 GFAAR
• 2022-04-25 Listed $105,000 GFAAR
• 2018-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-29 Sold (MLS) — GFAAR
• 2017-11-09 Listed $100,000 GFAAR
• 2012-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $444 · -68.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.