8638 Gibson Oaks Dr · Lakeland, FL 33809

$282,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 349 Days on market

Built 1990 0.98 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large double wide mobile home in need of TLC. 4 bedroom 2 bathroom with over 2100 sq ft of living space. This home sits on a large lot just shy of 1 acres. The property has tons of potential. Call for more details!

Key facts

• Open front porch
• Inside utility room
• 0.98 acre lot

Tags

• NEW SEPTIC DRAINFIELD
• SPLIT AND OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GENEROUS SIZE KITCHEN
• INSIDE UTILITY ROOM
• OPEN FRONT PORCH
• JUST UNDER AN ACRE OF LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($765/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgar L. Padgett Elementary (math 43% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 529 students, 57% FRL); Lake Gibson Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 1,218 students, 56% FRL); Lake Gibson Senior High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #478 of 667 statewide, top 73%, 2,080 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 15143% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $282k implies a 683% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,696 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-47,209
• Equity at exit: $42,047

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,707
• Equity at exit: $24,382

Cash invested: $78,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,802/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,316

Max offer price $282,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $144	+0% $64	+5% $-16	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-31	+0% $64	+5% $158	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $136	base $64	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,500
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1011 Winifred Way Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1880	$2,400	$1.28	25d	1	0.85mi
7530 Gunstock Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2319	$2,195	$0.95	5d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-04-28
   historical $1,850
2. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-02
   listed $1,850
4. 2026-03-25
   status Active
5. 2026-02-02
   historical $1,850
6. 2026-02-01
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-23
   listed $1,850
8. 2025-10-04
   historical $1,875
9. 2025-09-22
   status Active
10. 2025-09-21
    historical
11. 2025-08-02
    listed $1,875
12. 2025-08-02
    historical $1,875
13. 2025-08-01
    listed $1,875
14. 2025-06-18
    historical $1,875
15. 2025-06-04
    price $282,000
16. 2025-05-30
    listed $1,875
17. 2025-04-22
    price $287,000
18. 2025-04-15
    price $292,000
19. 2025-03-21
    listed $297,000 Active
20. 2017-05-16
    soldstatus $36,000 Sold 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Large double wide mobile home in need of TLC. 4 bedroom 2 bathroom with over 2100 sq ft of living space. This home sits on a large lot just shy of 1 acres. The property has tons of potential. Call for more details!

21. 2017-04-25
    status Pending 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Large double wide mobile home in need of TLC. 4 bedroom 2 bathroom with over 2100 sq ft of living space. This home sits on a large lot just shy of 1 acres. The property has tons of potential. Call for more details!

22. 2017-04-13
    listed $34,900 Active 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Large double wide mobile home in need of TLC. 4 bedroom 2 bathroom with over 2100 sq ft of living space. This home sits on a large lot just shy of 1 acres. The property has tons of potential. Call for more details!

23. 2016-09-28
    historical
24. 2016-09-27
    status Active
25. 2016-08-01
    historical
26. 2016-07-29
    listed $24,900 Active
27. 2004-07-12
    soldstatus $74,900
28. 1994-05-24
    soldstatus $15,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,802 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,802 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$2,802
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,301
• − Management: −$2,301
• − Depreciation: −$8,204
• Taxable loss: −$4,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$972
• After-tax cash flow: $1,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-87.7% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Rental Removed $1,850 MARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed for Rent $1,850 MARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Rental Removed $1,850 MARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Listed for Rent $1,850 MARMLS
• 2025-10-04 Rental Removed $1,875 REALBIRD
• 2025-09-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-02 Listed for Rent $1,875 REALBIRD
• 2025-08-02 Rental Removed $1,875 MARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed for Rent $1,875 MARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Rental Removed $1,875 STELLARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $282,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-30 Listed for Rent $1,875 STELLARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $287,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $292,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-21 Listed $297,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-16 Sold (MLS) $36,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-13 Listed $34,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-29 Listed $24,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records
• 1994-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $15,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,802 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.