6648 Lakeside Rd · Ontario, NY 14519

$349,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,799 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2026 0.41 ac lot $195/sqft · at area comps Est $340k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell and ready for its first owner, this home offers a rare opportunity with no competing offers—giving buyers the advantage to move quickly and confidently. Beautiful Craftsman-style raised ranch built on an existing foundation, offering modern design and functional living space. This light-filled home features an open floor plan with cathedral ceilings and abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen is a standout with granite countertops, a large island, stainless steel appliances, generous cupboard space, and a pantry—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The home offers 3 bedrooms, with 2 located on the main level and 1 on the lower level, along with 2 full baths conveniently positioned on each floor. The inviting family room includes a cozy gas fireplace and provides access to a walk-out backyard. A dedicated first-floor laundry room adds everyday convenience, while additional flexible space includes a private office or craft room, ideal for remote work or hobbies. Finished lower level offers flexible space ideal for an in-law suite or teen retreat. With the additional room in the lower level, turn the extra space into a mini kitchen retreat for your teen suite or in-law. This home also includes a builder warranty offering added value and peace of mind. Thoughtful design, quality finishes, and classic Craftsman charm make this home a must-see. Front yard has recently been seeded and mulched, backyard is scheduled to be landscape and seeded. Driveway will be replaced before closing.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Large island
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CRAFTSMAN STYLE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS CUPBOARD SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-506/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Ontario — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living B+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Wayne Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #194 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $350k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $255,000 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,598
• List price: $349,999
• Delta: 3.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6620 Lakeside Rd	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,692 (-6%)	23mo	$185,270	$109	67
6432 Lakeside Rd	0.53mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,824 (+1%)	23mo	$287,500	$158	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-59,583
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-56,087
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14519

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $904/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,603

Max offer price $342,555

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6186 Jackrabbit TRL Ontario, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1478	$2,550	$1.73	23d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $349,999 Pending 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,999 Active Under Contract 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,999 Active Under Contract 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $349,999 Active Under Contract 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,999 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,999 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,999 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,999 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,999 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,999 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 693-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $349,999 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-04-04
    price $379,900 1549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1549 chars)

    Priced to sell and ready for its first owner, this home offers a rare opportunity with no competing offers—giving buyers the advantage to move quickly and confidently. Beautiful Craftsman-style raised ranch built on an existing foundation, offering modern design and functional living space. This light-filled home features an open floor plan with cathedral ceilings and abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen is a standout with granite countertops, a large island, stainless steel appliances, generous cupboard space, and a pantry—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The home offers 3 bedrooms, with 2 located on the main level and 1 on the lower level, along with 2 full baths conveniently positioned on each floor. The inviting family room includes a cozy gas fireplace and provides access to a walk-out backyard. A dedicated first-floor laundry room adds everyday convenience, while additional flexible space includes a private office or craft room, ideal for remote work or hobbies. Finished lower level offers flexible space ideal for an in-law suite or teen retreat. With the additional room in the lower level, turn the extra space into a mini kitchen retreat for your teen suite or in-law. This home also includes a builder warranty offering added value and peace of mind. Thoughtful design, quality finishes, and classic Craftsman charm make this home a must-see. Front yard has recently been seeded and mulched, backyard is scheduled to be landscape and seeded. Driveway will be replaced before closing.

16. 2026-01-12
    listed $389,900 Active 1549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1549 chars)

    Priced to sell and ready for its first owner, this home offers a rare opportunity with no competing offers—giving buyers the advantage to move quickly and confidently. Beautiful Craftsman-style raised ranch built on an existing foundation, offering modern design and functional living space. This light-filled home features an open floor plan with cathedral ceilings and abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen is a standout with granite countertops, a large island, stainless steel appliances, generous cupboard space, and a pantry—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The home offers 3 bedrooms, with 2 located on the main level and 1 on the lower level, along with 2 full baths conveniently positioned on each floor. The inviting family room includes a cozy gas fireplace and provides access to a walk-out backyard. A dedicated first-floor laundry room adds everyday convenience, while additional flexible space includes a private office or craft room, ideal for remote work or hobbies. Finished lower level offers flexible space ideal for an in-law suite or teen retreat. With the additional room in the lower level, turn the extra space into a mini kitchen retreat for your teen suite or in-law. This home also includes a builder warranty offering added value and peace of mind. Thoughtful design, quality finishes, and classic Craftsman charm make this home a must-see. Front yard has recently been seeded and mulched, backyard is scheduled to be landscape and seeded. Driveway will be replaced before closing.

17. 2026-01-11
    historical
18. 2025-09-06
    listed $389,900 Active
19. 2009-11-02
    soldstatus $116,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $904 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,410 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,505/yr (+$209/mo · 277.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$904
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$6,738
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,617
• After-tax cash flow: $1,111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630330
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,193
• Composite: 54.18/100
• National rank: #1378
• State rank: #194 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ontario

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,487

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.53%
• Current HPI: 242.3518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+227.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $379,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $389,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-11 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-06 Listed $389,900 UNYREIS
• 2009-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $904 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.