503 W Weldon St · Corona de Tucson, AZ 85641

$315,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,854 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 2021 7,928 sqft lot $170/sqft · 17% below area Est $381k · 17% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2021, this well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort with a bright open floor plan perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a nice-sized pantry for extra storage. A formal dining room provides space for gatherings, while the large primary suite offers a relaxing private retreat. Additional upgrades include a reverse osmosis system, water softener, tankless water heater, and a Vivint security system. Outside, enjoy mature landscaping and added spacing thanks to an easement on the right side of the home. A newer home with thoughtful upgrades and a functional layout, ready for its next owners.

Key facts

• Nice-sized pantry
• Formal dining room
• Ample cabinetry

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• NICE-SIZED PANTRY
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• REVERSE OSMOSIS SYSTEM
• WATER SOFTENER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Corona de Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 655 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,713 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,762
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -17.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
535 W Grantham St	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,854 (0%)	2mo	$388,000	$209	91
1063 S Chatfield Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,823 (-2%)	3mo	$386,900	$212	79
680 W Lexington St	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,854 (0%)	1mo	$349,900	$189	72
728 S Porter Routh Pl	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,976 (+7%)	1mo	$312,000	$158	65
1094 S Chatfield Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,051 (+11%)	2mo	$449,900	$219	63
223 W Sg Posey St	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,030 (+10%)	0mo	$360,000	$177	62
1054 S Chatfield Ave	0.33mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,034 (+10%)	3mo	$409,900	$202	61
1138 S Grantham Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,051 (+11%)	0mo	$450,000	$219	56
17116 S Cinnebar Mesa Ct	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,917 (+3%)	1mo	$485,000	$253	55
455 W Lexington St	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,635 (-12%)	1mo	$403,000	$246	51
17226 S Azure Sky Trl	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,954 (+5%)	1mo	$460,000	$235	49
656 S Adanirom Judson Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,583 (-15%)	1mo	$321,000	$203	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-57,450
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-43,882
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85641

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,691/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,570

Max offer price $283,885

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-87	+0% $-176	+5% $-265	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-362	-5% $-269	+0% $-176	+5% $-83	+10% $9
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-96	base $-176	+0.5pp $-258	+1.0pp $-341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
543 W Weldon St Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	1583	$1,900	$1.20	2d	1	0.07mi
477 W Aberdeen Pl Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	1583	$2,700	$1.71	20d	1	0.09mi
538 W Chatfield St Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	2086	$2,150	$1.03	44d	1	0.12mi
757 S Harry P Stagg Dr Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	1627	$1,900	$1.17	15d	1	0.17mi
1061 S Seldon Pl Vail, AZ	4.0	2.0	2338	$1,995	$0.85	19d	1	0.25mi
731 S Ramsay Pollard Pl Vail, AZ	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	2d	1	0.32mi
655 S Willis Ray Ave Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,725	$1.32	2d	1	0.37mi
551 S Courts Redford Dr Vail, AZ	4.0	2.0	2172	$2,500	$1.15	2d	1	0.43mi
17173 S Sienna Bluffs Trl Vail, AZ	4.0	2.0	2141	$2,100	$0.98	44d	1	0.91mi
109 S Crown Plz Vail, AZ	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	44d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingsecurity

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $315,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $320,000 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Built in 2021, this well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort with a bright open floor plan perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a nice-sized pantry for extra storage. A formal dining room provides space for gatherings, while the large primary suite offers a relaxing private retreat. Additional upgrades include a reverse osmosis system, water softener, tankless water heater, and a Vivint security system. Outside, enjoy mature landscaping and added spacing thanks to an easement on the right side of the home. A newer home with thoughtful upgrades and a functional layout, ready for its next owners.

17. 2026-04-08
    price $325,000 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Built in 2021, this well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort with a bright open floor plan perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a nice-sized pantry for extra storage. A formal dining room provides space for gatherings, while the large primary suite offers a relaxing private retreat. Additional upgrades include a reverse osmosis system, water softener, tankless water heater, and a Vivint security system. Outside, enjoy mature landscaping and added spacing thanks to an easement on the right side of the home. A newer home with thoughtful upgrades and a functional layout, ready for its next owners.

18. 2026-03-20
    price $327,000 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Built in 2021, this well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort with a bright open floor plan perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a nice-sized pantry for extra storage. A formal dining room provides space for gatherings, while the large primary suite offers a relaxing private retreat. Additional upgrades include a reverse osmosis system, water softener, tankless water heater, and a Vivint security system. Outside, enjoy mature landscaping and added spacing thanks to an easement on the right side of the home. A newer home with thoughtful upgrades and a functional layout, ready for its next owners.

19. 2026-03-11
    listed $330,000 Active 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Built in 2021, this well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort with a bright open floor plan perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a nice-sized pantry for extra storage. A formal dining room provides space for gatherings, while the large primary suite offers a relaxing private retreat. Additional upgrades include a reverse osmosis system, water softener, tankless water heater, and a Vivint security system. Outside, enjoy mature landscaping and added spacing thanks to an easement on the right side of the home. A newer home with thoughtful upgrades and a functional layout, ready for its next owners.

20. 2021-01-14
    soldstatus $287,365 Closed 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Brand new Justin home has 4 bedrooms, Open great room with a dining area, Kitchen with pantry, Island Granite Tops Whirlpool stainless steel appliances that include; gas range, Two tone paint, Espresso stain cabinets with 20''X 20'' tile throughout most of the home. Energy Star, Tankless water heater, Taexx Interior Pest Defens. Home connected with IQ Panel, Smart lock, skybell plus so much more you come to expect with a D R Horton Home. Home ready in 60+days

21. 2020-12-08
    price $287,615 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Brand new Justin home has 4 bedrooms, Open great room with a dining area, Kitchen with pantry, Island Granite Tops Whirlpool stainless steel appliances that include; gas range, Two tone paint, Espresso stain cabinets with 20''X 20'' tile throughout most of the home. Energy Star, Tankless water heater, Taexx Interior Pest Defens. Home connected with IQ Panel, Smart lock, skybell plus so much more you come to expect with a D R Horton Home. Home ready in 60+days

22. 2020-11-24
    price $286,615 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Brand new Justin home has 4 bedrooms, Open great room with a dining area, Kitchen with pantry, Island Granite Tops Whirlpool stainless steel appliances that include; gas range, Two tone paint, Espresso stain cabinets with 20''X 20'' tile throughout most of the home. Energy Star, Tankless water heater, Taexx Interior Pest Defens. Home connected with IQ Panel, Smart lock, skybell plus so much more you come to expect with a D R Horton Home. Home ready in 60+days

23. 2020-11-23
    status Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Brand new Justin home has 4 bedrooms, Open great room with a dining area, Kitchen with pantry, Island Granite Tops Whirlpool stainless steel appliances that include; gas range, Two tone paint, Espresso stain cabinets with 20''X 20'' tile throughout most of the home. Energy Star, Tankless water heater, Taexx Interior Pest Defens. Home connected with IQ Panel, Smart lock, skybell plus so much more you come to expect with a D R Horton Home. Home ready in 60+days

24. 2020-09-18
    price $278,615 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Brand new Justin home has 4 bedrooms, Open great room with a dining area, Kitchen with pantry, Island Granite Tops Whirlpool stainless steel appliances that include; gas range, Two tone paint, Espresso stain cabinets with 20''X 20'' tile throughout most of the home. Energy Star, Tankless water heater, Taexx Interior Pest Defens. Home connected with IQ Panel, Smart lock, skybell plus so much more you come to expect with a D R Horton Home. Home ready in 60+days

25. 2020-09-09
    listed $274,615 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Brand new Justin home has 4 bedrooms, Open great room with a dining area, Kitchen with pantry, Island Granite Tops Whirlpool stainless steel appliances that include; gas range, Two tone paint, Espresso stain cabinets with 20''X 20'' tile throughout most of the home. Energy Star, Tankless water heater, Taexx Interior Pest Defens. Home connected with IQ Panel, Smart lock, skybell plus so much more you come to expect with a D R Horton Home. Home ready in 60+days

26. 2020-06-19
    soldstatus $1,908,489
27. 2008-12-17
    soldstatus $8,500,000
28. 2008-06-23
    soldstatus $20,300,000
29. 2004-07-27
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,691 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,691 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,691
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$7,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,846
• After-tax cash flow: $-268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Corona de Tucson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #7060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Corona de Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,752
• Household income: $131,164
• Rent vs Own: 5.9% rent · 94.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.78%
• Current HPI: 250.1814
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+6300.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $320,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $325,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $327,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-11 Listed $330,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-01-14 Sold (MLS) $287,365 MLSSAZ
• 2020-12-08 Price Changed $287,615 MLSSAZ
• 2020-11-24 Price Changed $286,615 MLSSAZ
• 2020-11-23 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2020-09-18 Price Changed $278,615 MLSSAZ
• 2020-09-09 Listed $274,615 MLSSAZ
• 2020-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $1,908,489 Public Records
• 2008-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $8,500,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $20,300,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+38.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,691 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.