128 E Saint Johns Way · Apollo Beach, FL 33572

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 976 sqft · Condo public records · 447 Days on market

Built 1973 $242/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Caribbean Isles, a vibrant 55+ gated waterfront community where friendly neighbors and resort-style amenities make every day feel like a vacation! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is truly move-in ready and filled with updates that providing peace of mind. Don't let its age fool you, recent upgrades include a new roof, HVAC system with updated ductwork, washer and dryer, and a brand-new carport. Inside, natural light fills the living room and hallway, highlighting the stylish laminate flooring. The spacious primary bedroom easily accommodates a king-sized bed and boasts 10 feet of in-wall closets for all your storage needs. Love the outdoors? You’ll feel right at home here! Launch your kayak or boat from our private facilities and explore the scenic canal system with direct access to Tampa Bay. Prefer to stay on land? Join a friendly game of bocce ball, shuffleboard, or horseshoes. When it's time to unwind, take a dip in our heated year-round pool or head to the clubhouse, where you’ll find a craft room, game room, pool tables, card tables, bar shuffleboard, and darts—perfect for socializing and having fun. There’s always something happening in Caribbean Isles! Our community events and activities range from themed dinners and dances to exciting social gatherings that make it easy to connect with neighbors and enjoy an active lifestyle. And let’s not forget the unbeatable location located between Tampa and Sarasota/Bradenton, you're just a short drive from stunning beaches, world-class dining, shopping, and thrilling amusement parks. Come see for yourself why so many call Caribbean Isles home.

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Large craft room
• Metal roof

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• SCREENED PATIO
• WELL-STOCKED LIBRARY
• LARGE CRAFT ROOM
• GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($823/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#333 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 447 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 447 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.33%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-15,541
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,218
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33572

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,376/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$242
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,922

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
349 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	583	$1,700	$2.92	2d	12	0.24mi
6144 Paseo Al Mar Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$2,164	$2.00	2d	28	0.68mi
6350 Union Station Ct Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1105	$2,372	$2.15	1d	42	0.81mi
529 Red Mangrove Ln Apollo Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,200	$2.08	17d	1	1.11mi
917 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1120	$2,261	$2.02	4d	5	1.11mi
960 Apollo Beach Blvd #102 Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1002	$1,900	$1.90	24d	1	1.29mi
1008 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$2,325	$2.07	4d	2	1.37mi
1021 Apollo Beach Blvd #3 Apollo Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	625	$1,750	$2.80	4d	1	1.37mi
1025 Apollo Beach Blvd Unit D Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	24d	1	1.39mi
1025 Apollo Beach Blvd Unit B Apollo Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	625	$1,500	$2.40	24d	1	1.39mi
1029 Apollo Beach Blvd #5 Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	24d	1	1.40mi
1028 Apollo Beach Blvd Apollo Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1084	$1,812	$1.67	12d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $242 · $2,904/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 447 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 446 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 445 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 444 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 442 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 441 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 438 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 437 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 436 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 433 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 432 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 431 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 430 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 429 DOM
15. 2025-07-19
    price $129,900 1665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1665 chars)

    Welcome to Caribbean Isles, a vibrant 55+ gated waterfront community where friendly neighbors and resort-style amenities make every day feel like a vacation! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is truly move-in ready and filled with updates that providing peace of mind. Don't let its age fool you, recent upgrades include a new roof, HVAC system with updated ductwork, washer and dryer, and a brand-new carport. Inside, natural light fills the living room and hallway, highlighting the stylish laminate flooring. The spacious primary bedroom easily accommodates a king-sized bed and boasts 10 feet of in-wall closets for all your storage needs. Love the outdoors? You’ll feel right at home here! Launch your kayak or boat from our private facilities and explore the scenic canal system with direct access to Tampa Bay. Prefer to stay on land? Join a friendly game of bocce ball, shuffleboard, or horseshoes. When it's time to unwind, take a dip in our heated year-round pool or head to the clubhouse, where you’ll find a craft room, game room, pool tables, card tables, bar shuffleboard, and darts—perfect for socializing and having fun. There’s always something happening in Caribbean Isles! Our community events and activities range from themed dinners and dances to exciting social gatherings that make it easy to connect with neighbors and enjoy an active lifestyle. And let’s not forget the unbeatable location located between Tampa and Sarasota/Bradenton, you're just a short drive from stunning beaches, world-class dining, shopping, and thrilling amusement parks. Come see for yourself why so many call Caribbean Isles home.

16. 2025-03-28
    listed $139,900 Active 1665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1665 chars)

    Welcome to Caribbean Isles, a vibrant 55+ gated waterfront community where friendly neighbors and resort-style amenities make every day feel like a vacation! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is truly move-in ready and filled with updates that providing peace of mind. Don't let its age fool you, recent upgrades include a new roof, HVAC system with updated ductwork, washer and dryer, and a brand-new carport. Inside, natural light fills the living room and hallway, highlighting the stylish laminate flooring. The spacious primary bedroom easily accommodates a king-sized bed and boasts 10 feet of in-wall closets for all your storage needs. Love the outdoors? You’ll feel right at home here! Launch your kayak or boat from our private facilities and explore the scenic canal system with direct access to Tampa Bay. Prefer to stay on land? Join a friendly game of bocce ball, shuffleboard, or horseshoes. When it's time to unwind, take a dip in our heated year-round pool or head to the clubhouse, where you’ll find a craft room, game room, pool tables, card tables, bar shuffleboard, and darts—perfect for socializing and having fun. There’s always something happening in Caribbean Isles! Our community events and activities range from themed dinners and dances to exciting social gatherings that make it easy to connect with neighbors and enjoy an active lifestyle. And let’s not forget the unbeatable location located between Tampa and Sarasota/Bradenton, you're just a short drive from stunning beaches, world-class dining, shopping, and thrilling amusement parks. Come see for yourself why so many call Caribbean Isles home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,376
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − HOA: −$2,904
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $1,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Apollo Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #5784

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apollo Beach, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 26,495
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,495
• Household income: $122,130
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 381.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -393.97%
• Current HPI: 300.9596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.36%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,376 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.