5115 Winnetka St · Houston, TX 77021

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1947 7,801 sqft lot Est $162k · 35% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Centrally located Houston property near the University of Houston and Downtown with easy access to major amenities. Home requires repairs and updates and is priced accordingly. Offering strong potential for investors or buyers looking to add value. Situated on a spacious lot with room for improvement. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Centrally located
• Near downtown
• Spacious lot

Tags

• CENTRALLY LOCATED
• NEAR UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON
• NEAR DOWNTOWN
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR AMENITIES
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1947; Single-story (first-floor living areas)
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (approx. 14x15)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12x12); Additional bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10x10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor (approx. 8x9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Cleared lot (visible from property context)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cullen Middle (math 6% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 324 students, 100% FRL); Yates H S (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 851 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 467 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,425 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.10%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,814
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5034 Nassau Rd	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,049 (-3%)	13mo	$100,000	$95	74
5107 Dickens Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (-2%)	10mo	$159,000	$149	70
5063 Nassau Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (+1%)	10mo	$222,900	$204	69
5023 Nassau Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0	1,001 (-8%)	14mo	$125,000	$125	68
4915 Dickens Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,201 (+11%)	22mo	$209,000	$174	54
6112 Pineway Blvd	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,233 (+14%)	5mo	$175,000	$142	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-9,988
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,203
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77021

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 467
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,244 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,166/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,086

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $155	+0% $125	+5% $95	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $76	+0% $125	+5% $174	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $178	-0.5pp $152	base $125	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5101 Martin Luther King Blvd Unit MO54 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,210	$0.92	12d	1	0.28mi
4722 Old Spanish Trl Unit B301 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,695	$1.65	45d	1	0.55mi
5154 Griggs Rd Unit CAVE Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,420	$1.07	3d	1	0.79mi
5610 Royal Palms St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	25d	1	0.80mi
5116 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,316	$1.16	44d	1	0.80mi
2801 Carrolton St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$849	$1.31	44d	2	0.87mi
2801 Carrolton St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$899	$1.38	2d	4	0.87mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	44d	1	0.94mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	22d	1	0.94mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	25d	1	0.94mi
5918 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.94mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,241	$0.94	22d	1	0.97mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,030	$1.03	25d	1	0.97mi
5520 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,241	$0.94	44d	1	0.97mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 1047 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,005	$1.00	11d	1	0.98mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,225	$0.93	11d	1	0.98mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,214	$0.92	3d	1	0.98mi
5514 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$935	$0.93	14d	1	1.04mi
5514 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,210	$0.92	44d	1	1.04mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5565 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$935	$0.93	44d	1	1.05mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5571 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,214	$0.92	11d	1	1.05mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5535 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,004	$1.00	11d	1	1.05mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	8d	1	1.05mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 5535 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$940	$0.94	14d	1	1.05mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 1165 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$1,000	$1.00	0d	1	1.05mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$965	$0.96	8d	1	1.05mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,190	$0.90	6d	1	1.05mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1003	$965	$0.96	6d	1	1.05mi
5514 Griggs Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,220	$0.92	0d	1	1.05mi
1552 Lombardy St #4 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	850	$970	$1.14	25d	1	1.06mi
1552 Lombardy St Apt 2 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	850	$925	$1.09	25d	1	1.06mi
6030 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	740	$850	$1.15	44d	1	1.07mi
5532 Eskridge St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$899	$1.11	16d	1	1.15mi
5532 Eskridge St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	885	$899	$1.02	44d	1	1.15mi
5813 England St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1473	$2,195	$1.49	4d	1	1.20mi
4515 Dewberry St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	1400	$664	$0.47	21d	1	1.24mi
1526 Lawson St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	988	$2,200	$2.23	44d	1	1.31mi
1425 Munger St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	850	$2,500	$2.94	44d	1	1.31mi
2606 Beatty St Unit 224 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	700	$950	$1.36	25d	1	1.32mi
2606 Beatty St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	25d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $105,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $105,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $105,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $105,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-05-20
   listed $120,000 Active
7. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,166 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,166 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$3,166
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$83
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20
• After-tax cash flow: $1,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,153
• Household income: $45,574
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2532.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% White 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.22%
• Current HPI: 230.2869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,166 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.