15429 Glinton Farm Ln · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$219,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,826 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $120/sqft · 18% below area Est $269k · 18% under $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW HOME WITH WATER VIEW BACKYARD!! Introducing the Voyager floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 1,826 square feet of modern living space. The open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable layout for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. Enjoy relaxing views with a water view backyard, adding a serene backdrop to your outdoor space, and a fully fenced yard completes this inviting home in Avalon Ridge, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

Key facts

• Water view backyard
• Large island
• Soft close cabinets

Tags

• WATER VIEW BACKYARD
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($188/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,874 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,264
• List price: $219,990
• Delta: -18.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4048 N Oak Forest Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+4%)	10mo	$229,900	$121	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-40,449
• Equity at exit: $32,801

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-56,341
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,979

Max offer price $219,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $92	+0% $16	+5% $-60	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-63	+0% $16	+5% $95	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $72	base $16	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,998
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,992	$1.11	3d	1	1.44mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$1,855	$1.16	2d	15	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 884-char remark

   Show marketing remark (884 chars)

   BRAND NEW HOME WITH WATER VIEW BACKYARD!! Introducing the Voyager floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 1,826 square feet of modern living space. The open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable layout for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. Enjoy relaxing views with a water view backyard, adding a serene backdrop to your outdoor space, and a fully fenced yard completes this inviting home in Avalon Ridge, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

2. 2026-05-15
   price $219,990 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Step into your next home through the foyer from the front porch and continue down the hall to the main living space, passing a convenient powder bath along the way. The kitchen, dining area, and family room form an open-concept space, with stairs to the second floor nearby and access to the two-car garage just off the kitchen. Upstairs, a loft connects two additional bedrooms-one with a walk-in closet-that share a bath. As you head toward the primary bedroom, you'll pass the laundry room before arriving at the spacious primary suite, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

3. 2026-05-11
   price $219,990 884-char remark

   Show marketing remark (884 chars)

   BRAND NEW HOME WITH WATER VIEW BACKYARD!! Introducing the Voyager floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 1,826 square feet of modern living space. The open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable layout for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. Enjoy relaxing views with a water view backyard, adding a serene backdrop to your outdoor space, and a fully fenced yard completes this inviting home in Avalon Ridge, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

4. 2026-04-02
   listed $244,990 Active 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Step into your next home through the foyer from the front porch and continue down the hall to the main living space, passing a convenient powder bath along the way. The kitchen, dining area, and family room form an open-concept space, with stairs to the second floor nearby and access to the two-car garage just off the kitchen. Upstairs, a loft connects two additional bedrooms-one with a walk-in closet-that share a bath. As you head toward the primary bedroom, you'll pass the laundry room before arriving at the spacious primary suite, complete with a walk-in closet and private primary bath.

5. 2026-03-31
   price $244,990 884-char remark

   Show marketing remark (884 chars)

   BRAND NEW HOME WITH WATER VIEW BACKYARD!! Introducing the Voyager floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 1,826 square feet of modern living space. The open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable layout for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. Enjoy relaxing views with a water view backyard, adding a serene backdrop to your outdoor space, and a fully fenced yard completes this inviting home in Avalon Ridge, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

6. 2026-03-31
   listed $272,000 Active 884-char remark

   Show marketing remark (884 chars)

   BRAND NEW HOME WITH WATER VIEW BACKYARD!! Introducing the Voyager floorplan, a well designed two story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 1,826 square feet of modern living space. The open concept main level connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable layout for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. Upstairs includes a spacious game room along with a private primary suite featuring a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. Enjoy relaxing views with a water view backyard, adding a serene backdrop to your outdoor space, and a fully fenced yard completes this inviting home in Avalon Ridge, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$838
• After-tax cash flow: $1,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new home with a water view backyard is in excellent condition and ready for move-in. Minor updates to landscaping and interior paint could further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $219,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $272,000 HARMLS