12760 Sarsfield Ave · Warren, MI 48089

$149,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 906 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1955 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tenant Occupied! Currently leased at $1,550 per month, providing immediate rental income from day one. Well-maintained property with tenant in place, making it an ideal addition to any investment portfolio. Lease and tenant information available upon request. Pictures are from before when the tenants moved in. Please do not disturb tenant. Showings by appointment only with adequate notice. Great opportunity for investors seeking a cash-flowing asset in a desirable location

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; One and one-half story with ground-level entry and steps; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; One and one-half levels
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 130 (0.12 acre)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located across one and one-half levels
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating with natural gas; No central cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($838/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.2% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Van Dyke Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #512 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,110 of 1,397 statewide, top 81%, 344 students, 96% FRL); Lincoln Middle School (math 7% / reading 22%, grade F, #460 of 493 statewide, top 93%, 401 students, 96% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #692 of 713 statewide, top 98%, 440 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,227 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.01%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12753 Georgiana Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (-1)	888 (-2%)	2mo	$120,000	$135	87
13046 Sherman Ave	0.16mi	4/1.0	870 (-4%)	1mo	$120,000	$138	85
12416 Vernon Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	944 (+4%)	2mo	$128,000	$136	78
20543 Waltham St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	890 (-2%)	1mo	$50,000	$56	78
20300 Hickory St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	918 (+1%)	1mo	$31,000	$34	70
20200 Alcoy St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	917 (+1%)	2mo	$55,100	$60	68
20218 Hickory St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	930 (+3%)	2mo	$26,000	$28	65
20218 Goulburn St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	965 (+6%)	1mo	$12,000	$12	63
13881 Carlisle St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	940 (+4%)	3mo	$59,200	$63	55
20561 Pelkey St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (+15%)	3mo	$43,000	$41	48
20020 Pelkey St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (+13%)	2mo	$75,000	$74	42
19758 Waltham St	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	790 (-13%)	3mo	$6,000	$8	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-19,732
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,606
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48089

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,452 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,808/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $112	+0% $70	+5% $28	+10% $-15
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $12	+0% $70	+5% $127	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $108	base $70	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12846 Georgiana Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	912	$1,300	$1.43	26d	1	0.12mi
12807 Coleen Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	26d	1	0.13mi
21311 Waltham Rd Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	0d	1	0.13mi
13050 Couwlier Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	850	$1,320	$1.55	0d	1	0.27mi
20553 Hamburg St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,300	$1.21	5d	1	0.34mi
20296 Waltham St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	986	$1,300	$1.32	19d	1	0.35mi
20091 Barlow St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	930	$1,300	$1.40	19d	1	0.50mi
20242 Hickory St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	747	$1,300	$1.74	13d	1	0.50mi
20227 Pelkey St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,350	$1.39	19d	1	0.53mi
20027 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	19d	1	0.58mi
22852 Sharrow Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	7d	1	0.79mi
14068 Carlisle St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,300	$1.27	26d	1	0.82mi
11319 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	26d	1	0.93mi
13669 Pfent St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,374	$1.33	19d	1	1.10mi
19220 Alcoy St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,350	$1.32	19d	1	1.10mi
11076 Hudson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	936	$1,395	$1.49	5d	1	1.10mi
19170 Joann St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1020	$1,400	$1.37	45d	1	1.14mi
19143 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,225	$1.14	19d	1	1.15mi
8640 Chalmers Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	804	$1,423	$1.77	26d	1	1.24mi
8632 Studebaker Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	761	$1,300	$1.71	5d	1	1.26mi
18681 Barlow St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,400	$1.34	26d	1	1.37mi
8285 Rivard Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	902	$1,549	$1.72	26d	1	1.38mi
8242 Jackson Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	840	$1,198	$1.43	45d	1	1.41mi
18624 Fairport St Unit NA Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	924	$1,450	$1.57	26d	1	1.42mi
18624 Fairport St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	874	$1,450	$1.66	23d	1	1.42mi
8693 Paige Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	26d	1	1.44mi
14461 Lappin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	989	$1,150	$1.16	19d	1	1.44mi
8707 Continental Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	7d	1	1.46mi
8707 Continental Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	968	$1,200	$1.24	19d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Tenant Occupied! Currently leased at $1,550 per month, providing immediate rental income from day one. Well-maintained property with tenant in place, making it an ideal addition to any investment portfolio. Lease and tenant information available upon request. Pictures are from before when the tenants moved in. Please do not disturb tenant. Showings by appointment only with adequate notice. Great opportunity for investors seeking a cash-flowing asset in a desirable location

5. 2026-06-15
   listed $149,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Tenant Occupied! Currently leased at $1,550 per month, providing immediate rental income from day one. Well-maintained property with tenant in place, making it an ideal addition to any investment portfolio. Lease and tenant information available upon request. Pictures are from before when the tenants moved in. Please do not disturb tenant. Showings by appointment only with adequate notice. Great opportunity for investors seeking a cash-flowing asset in a desirable location

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,808 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,808 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,808
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$383
• After-tax cash flow: $1,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Dyke Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634680
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,231
• Composite: 10.46/100
• National rank: #9784
• State rank: #512 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 31,853
• Household income: $52,366
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 31% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.46%
• Current HPI: 154.8325
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+398.3% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $149,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-15 Listed $149,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-12-16 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-16 Sold (MLS) $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-11-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-10-10 Price Changed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-09 Price Changed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $148,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $148,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-09-13 Listed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-13 Listed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-12-15 Sold (MLS) $14,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-12-15 Sold (MLS) $14,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-11-22 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-11-22 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-11-08 Price Changed $15,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-11-08 Price Changed $15,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-11-03 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-11-03 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2016-10-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-09-09 Price Changed $19,800 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-09-08 Price Changed $19,800 REALCOMP
• 2016-08-23 Listed $21,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-08-23 Listed $21,900 REALCOMP
• 1998-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1992-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,808 · +81.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.