5143 Oakleaf Dr · Pace, FL 32571

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,431 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1980 0.36 ac lot Est $246k · 16% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Estate sale. Home needs updating and repairs.

Key facts

• Huge yard
• Totally remodeled
• Newer privacy fence

Tags

• HUGE YARD
• TOTALLY REMODELED
• PRIVATE FLORIDA ROOM
• NEWER PRIVACY FENCE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOOR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Four total parking spaces; Driveway parking; Converted garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers and copper wiring; Paved, county-maintained road access
• Home design: One-story brick home; Shingle gable roof; Not attached to another property; Resale property
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; One level
• Exterior features: Patio; Back yard fencing with privacy and other fence sections; Yard building; Workshop; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Remodeled kitchen with granite counters and kitchen island; Island added and cabinets refinished; New barn sink and high faucet; New lighting; Stainless steel appliances; Built-in microwave; Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Open floor plan (walls removed)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor; All bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl plank flooring (new in kitchen area)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Remodeled bathrooms with refinished vanities, solid surface counters, new lighting and fixtures, and new flooring (updated within 1 year)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Storage; Ceiling fans; High-speed internet available; Sun room; Insulated doors; Storm door(s); Double-pane windows; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-105/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pea Ridge Elementary School (math 57% / reading 55%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 837 students, 60% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $285k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,117 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,132
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5236 Dellran Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+1%)	1mo	$245,000	$170	85
5105 Bradford Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-4%)	18mo	$199,900	$145	73
5105 Potomac Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,543 (+8%)	12mo	$240,000	$156	68
4672 Nottingham Creek Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+13%)	8mo	$279,000	$172	65
4930 E Spencer Field Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+3%)	2mo	$320,000	$217	65
5245 Madison Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-6%)	13mo	$249,900	$186	57
5221 English Oak Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+12%)	2mo	$290,000	$180	56
5325 Crystal Creek Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+2%)	10mo	$256,000	$176	54
4801 Carlyn Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+7%)	23mo	$250,000	$163	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-47,453
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-44,952
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,896/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,242

Max offer price $283,460

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $72	+0% $-9	+5% $-89	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-97	+0% $-9	+5% $79	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $64	base $-9	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4742 Spencer Oaks Blvd Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1783	$1,925	$1.08	25d	1	1.08mi
4203 Frasier Ln Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,195	$1.25	25d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $285,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $285,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $288,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $288,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $288,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $288,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $288,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $288,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $288,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $288,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 683-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $288,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 24.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,896
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,221
• After-tax cash flow: $1,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+928.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $288,000 PARMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed $150,000 PARMLS
• 2025-02-27 Sold (MLS) $150,000 PARMLS
• 2013-02-25 Sold (MLS) $52,502 PARMLS
• 2012-08-16 Listed $79,900 PARMLS
• 2011-04-09 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2010-10-10 Listed $89,900 PARMLS
• 2003-03-21 Sold (MLS) $65,000 PARMLS
• 2003-01-12 Listed $69,900 PARMLS
• 1985-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1982-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 1979-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,896 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.