516 Granite Rd · Kerhonkson, NY 12446

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,030 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1925 Fair condition 5,663 sqft lot $189/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't judge a book by its cover! This bright and airy cottage is much more spacious than it looks from the outside. If you include the sunroom, which has been heated in the past, you are looking at apprx. 1136 sq feet of space! Great full time or weekend home. 2 br's downstairs, eat in kitchen, sun room and Living Room on the first floor, 2 more rooms on the second floor. So many improvements - New: roof, well, septic, front porch, 2 high end entrance doors, carpet, fresh paint, fridge and stove, renovated bath, 4 new ceiling lights/fans, primarily new windows, landscaping and freshly painted deck. Close to hiking, biking, Minnewaska State Park, Saunderskill and Kelder Farms, Spas, restaurants, antique shops, Stone Ridge and High Falls.

Key facts

• Mohonk preserve
• Stony kill falls
• Hudson valley

Tags

• SHAWANGUNK MOUNTAINS
• HUDSON VALLEY
• MOHONK PRESERVE
• MINNEWASKA STATE PARK
• STONY KILL FALLS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $862 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 2.0% in Kerhonkson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#552 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Rondout Valley Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #447 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kerhonkson Elementary School (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,574 of 2,108 statewide, top 75%, 209 students, 54% FRL); Rondout Valley Junior High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 243 students, 42% FRL); Rondout Valley High School (math 87% / reading 64%, grade A-, #623 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 569 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $195k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $195,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.94%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $471,528
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -58.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Highland Ave	1.46mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-2%)	5mo	$181,000	$179	58
592 Granite Rd	0.27mi	3/1.5	968 (-6%)	28mo	$375,000	$387	56
47 Sidney St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,160 (+13%)	28mo	$406,000	$350	42
90 Sidney St	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+7%)	18mo	$399,000	$363	40
670 Granite Road Lot 12	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+12%)	26mo	$85,000	$74	34
18 George St	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+6%)	22mo	$387,900	$355	33
15 Teradon Rd	1.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+22%)	7mo	$600,000	$476	25
17 Park Ln	1.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+11%)	34mo	$350,100	$306	22
45 Laurel Holw	0.97mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,285 (+25%)	29mo	$380,000	$296	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $161,129
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.90×
• Total profit: $431,382
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12446

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,654/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $862

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $972	-5% $917	+0% $862	+5% $807	+10% $752
Rent	-10% $643	-5% $753	+0% $862	+5% $971	+10% $1,081
Rate	-1.0pp $960	-0.5pp $912	base $862	+0.5pp $811	+1.0pp $760

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
651 Granite Rd Unit 1 Kerhonkson, NY	2.0	2.5	1000	$2,600	$2.60	63d	1	0.45mi
45 Laurel Hollow Est Kerhonkson, NY	4.0	2.0	1285	$3,200	$2.49	63d	1	0.95mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No carportOther parking features
• Utilities: Septic tankUtilities: see remarks
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame constructionFull, unfinished basement with Bilco door(s)
• Exterior features: Frame constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliancesOwned water softener
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedroom(s) on first floor)
• Flooring: Laminate flooringWood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heatingOil heatingNo central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathroomCeiling fan(s)Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-07-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-07-06
   days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-07-05
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-07-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-07-03
   days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-07-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-07-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-30
   days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-29
   days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-28
    days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-28
    days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-26
    remarks 687-char remark
13. 2026-06-26
    listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,975 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 12.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,654
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,658
• − Management: −$2,658
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $7,680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,843
• After-tax cash flow: $8,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $25,750–$46,350 screening

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, particularly in the exterior and interior paint. Painting and landscaping improvements can significantly enhance its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof tile · good Flooring hardwood Counters granite Appliances stainless steel HVAC central · new lt5

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance, but not damaged
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Dated appearance, but functional
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance, some discoloration
• Moderate Interior paint — Faded appearance, especially in attic
• Moderate Windows — Worn frames, some wear visible
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and needs trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls and cabinets — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained exterior can enhance both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kerhonkson Elementary School F NY #1,574/2,108 Nat'l #23,070/41,679 Middle Rondout Valley Junior High School F NY #483/729 Nat'l #7,581/14,009 High Rondout Valley High School A- NY #623/1,100 Nat'l #1,517/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rondout Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624960
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,408
• Composite: 39.5/100
• National rank: #3949
• State rank: #447 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Kerhonkson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #552
• US rank: #9921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ulster · 175,887 people
• City population: 5,232
• Metro: Kingston, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,232
• Household income: $83,344
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.32%
• Current HPI: 380.6732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No carportOther parking features
• Utilities: Septic tankUtilities: see remarks
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame constructionFull, unfinished basement with Bilco door(s)
• Exterior features: Frame constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliancesOwned water softener
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedroom(s) on first floor)
• Flooring: Laminate flooringWood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heatingOil heatingNo central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathroomCeiling fan(s)Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

Price history

+95.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-01 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-06-25 Listed $195,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-06-25 Listed $195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-16 Sold (MLS) $95,000 HVCRMLS
• 2017-02-15 Listed $109,900 HVCRMLS
• 2016-05-15 Listed $109,900 HVCRMLS
• 2015-11-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-27 Listed $105,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-27 Listed $105,000 HVCRMLS
• 2012-01-13 Listed $69,500 HVCRMLS
• 2010-11-15 Listed $69,500 HVCRMLS
• 1987-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,654 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.