19449 Cotton Bay 180 N · North Fort Myers, FL 33903

$219,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured · 180 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Excellent condition $132/sqft · 25% below area Est $294k · 25% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.5

Listing remarks

Coming This Summer! Don't miss this beautiful brand-new lakeview 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,664 sq. ft. Skyline home. Enjoy peaceful water views from the large front porch, perfect for relaxing outdoors. Built with 2×6 walls and thermal pane windows, this home offers superior insulation, durability, and year-round comfort. Inside, you'll find stainless steel kitchen appliances and a spacious layout ready for your personal furnishings and style. Quality construction, serene surroundings, and modern comfort come together in this stunning new home.

Key facts

• Quality construction
• Large front porch
• Lakeview

Tags

• LAKEVIEW
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• SUPERIOR INSULATION
• THERMAL PANE WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• QUALITY CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-297 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Diplomat Elementary School (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 1,069 students, 56% FRL); Mariner Middle School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,001 students, 53% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 960 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,900 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,549
• List price: $219,995
• Delta: -25.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19795 Frenchmans Ct	1.33mi	2/2.0	1,640 (-1%)	1mo	$227,900	$139	61
19813 Eagle Trace Ct	1.17mi	2/2.0	1,618 (-3%)	0mo	$237,000	$146	60
19868 Frenchmans Ct	1.28mi	2/2.0	1,602 (-4%)	1mo	$226,000	$141	58
19875 Frenchmans Ct	1.34mi	2/2.0	1,581 (-5%)	1mo	$185,000	$117	56
19844 Eagle Trace Ct	1.15mi	2/2.0	1,580 (-5%)	5mo	$147,000	$93	52
19851 Eagle Trace Ct S	1.21mi	2/2.0	1,519 (-9%)	14mo	$105,000	$69	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-59,057
• Equity at exit: $32,802

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-93,201
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 57 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 342.0 mo (0%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $119,900 ($82/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: 91% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +114.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33903

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 960
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,549 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $177,073

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-221	+0% $-297	+5% $-373	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-419	-5% $-358	+0% $-297	+5% $-235	+10% $-174
Rate	-1.0pp $-186	-0.5pp $-241	base $-297	+0.5pp $-354	+1.0pp $-412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,999
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19621 N Tamiami Trl North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,300	$1.08	164d	1	0.48mi
10401 Circle Pine Rd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1294	$3,000	$2.32	164d	1	0.58mi
10401 Circle Pine Rd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1294	$3,600	$2.78	0d	1	0.58mi
20038 Fiddlewood Ave North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1519	$1,999	$1.32	160d	1	0.62mi
20056 Sweetbay Dr North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$4,000	$2.39	164d	1	0.65mi
19419 Tarpon Woods Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,399	$0.97	55d	1	0.69mi
19424 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,299	$0.83	10d	1	0.70mi
10291 Circle Pine Rd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,499	$1.04	10d	1	0.71mi
19404 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,399	$0.96	10d	1	0.71mi
19414 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,199	$0.96	45d	1	0.71mi
19477 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,499	$1.03	143d	1	0.72mi
19473 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$1,399	$0.96	55d	1	0.72mi
19421 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,499	$1.25	143d	1	0.72mi
19429 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,299	$0.89	46d	1	0.72mi
19413 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,499	$1.03	6d	1	0.74mi
19220 Meadowbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$1,699	$1.16	6d	1	0.75mi
19188 Meadowbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,399	$0.96	45d	1	0.75mi
20559 Long Pond Rd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,150	$1.19	1d	1	0.77mi
20559 Long Pond Rd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,150	$1.19	110d	1	0.77mi
19164 Meadowbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,199	$0.93	55d	1	0.78mi
19144 Meadowbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1290	$1,399	$1.08	29d	1	0.79mi
19152 Meadowbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,399	$1.12	55d	1	0.79mi
19148 Meadowbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,499	$1.03	119d	1	0.79mi
19100 Meadowbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,299	$0.96	46d	1	0.81mi
4036 Avenue Del Tura North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1568	$1,950	$1.24	164d	1	0.93mi
4036 Avenue Del Tura North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1568	$1,950	$1.24	10d	1	0.93mi
19168 Innisbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,699	$1.09	6d	1	1.01mi
20728 Tisbury Ln North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2133	$5,000	$2.34	155d	1	1.09mi
20728 Tisbury Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	2133	$5,000	$2.34	43d	1	1.09mi
20728 Tisbury Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	2133	$5,000	$2.34	10d	1	1.09mi
20502 Camino Torcido Loop North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$3,500	$2.09	127d	1	1.10mi
20502 Camino Torcido Loop North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$3,500	$2.09	10d	1	1.10mi
20961 Marathona Ct North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1099	$4,000	$3.64	10d	1	1.20mi
20961 Marathona Ct North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1099	$4,000	$3.64	55d	1	1.20mi
2481 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,000	$2.76	6d	1	1.27mi
2481 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,000	$2.76	0d	1	1.27mi
2481 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,000	$2.76	162d	1	1.27mi
1830 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1845	$3,500	$1.90	123d	1	1.30mi
2130 Rio Nuevo Dr Unit 1546442P North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$4,682	$3.75	155d	1	1.36mi
10561 Lake Loop Rd Unit 37M North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$3,000	$2.84	10d	1	1.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed for $219,995

Exterior

• Home design: Condo/Apartment style unit (plan: 19449 COTTON BAY #180)Address: 19449 Cotton Bay 180 N, Fort Myers FL 33903
• Construction: Built/listed in 2026 (spec new construction)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction unitLiving area approximately 1664

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $219,995 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $219,995 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $219,995 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $219,995 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $219,995 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-11-01
   days on market $219,995 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $219,995 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-10-30
   days on market $219,995 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-10-29
   days on market $219,995 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-10-28
    days on market $219,995 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-10-27
    days on market $219,995 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-10-26
    days on market $219,995 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $219,995 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-10-23
    days on market $219,995 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-10-22
    days on market $219,995 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-10-21
    days on market $219,995 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-10-20
    days on market $219,995 Active 161 DOM
18. 2026-10-19
    days on market $219,995 Active 160 DOM
19. 2026-10-18
    days on market $219,995 Active 159 DOM
20. 2026-10-17
    days on market $219,995 Active 158 DOM
21. 2026-10-16
    days on market $219,995 Active 157 DOM
22. 2026-10-15
    days on market $219,995 Active 156 DOM
23. 2026-10-14
    days on market $219,995 Active 155 DOM
24. 2026-10-13
    days on market $219,995 Active 154 DOM
25. 2026-10-12
    days on market $219,995 Active 153 DOM
26. 2026-10-11
    days on market $219,995 Active 152 DOM
27. 2026-10-10
    days on market $219,995 Active 151 DOM
28. 2026-10-09
    days on market $219,995 Active 150 DOM
29. 2026-10-09
    days on market $219,995 Active 149 DOM
30. 2026-10-07
    days on market $219,995 Active 148 DOM
31. 2026-10-06
    days on market $219,995 Active 147 DOM
32. 2026-10-05
    days on market $219,995 Active 146 DOM
33. 2026-10-05
    days on market $219,995 Active 145 DOM
34. 2026-10-04
    days on market $219,995 Active 144 DOM
35. 2026-10-01
    days on market $219,995 Active 142 DOM
36. 2026-09-30
    days on market $219,995 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-09-29
    days on market $219,995 Active 140 DOM
38. 2026-09-24
    days on market $219,995 Active 135 DOM
39. 2026-09-23
    days on market $219,995 Active 134 DOM
40. 2026-09-22
    days on market $219,995 Active 133 DOM
41. 2026-09-21
    days on market $219,995 Active 132 DOM
42. 2026-09-17
    days on market $219,995 Active 128 DOM
43. 2026-09-13
    days on market $219,995 Active 124 DOM
44. 2026-09-13
    days on market $219,995 Active 123 DOM
45. 2026-09-11
    days on market $219,995 Active 122 DOM
46. 2026-09-05
    days on market $219,995 Active 116 DOM
47. 2026-09-04
    days on market $219,995 Active 115 DOM
48. 2026-08-31
    days on market $219,995 Active 111 DOM
49. 2026-08-28
    days on market $219,995 Active 108 DOM
50. 2026-08-26
    days on market $219,995 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$7,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,802
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new, move-in-ready manufactured home offers serene lake views and modern comfort, ideal for those seeking a peaceful and stylish living environment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior furnishings — Personalizes the space and makes it move-in ready ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary North Fort Myers Academy For The Arts C FL #936/2,144 Nat'l #10,700/41,679 Middle Mariner Middle School C- FL #274/571 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Island Coast High School F FL #470/667 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 871,946 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,655
• Household income: $56,993
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.26%
• Current HPI: 256.773
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.94%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed for $219,995

Exterior

• Home design: Condo/Apartment style unit (plan: 19449 COTTON BAY #180)Address: 19449 Cotton Bay 180 N, Fort Myers FL 33903
• Construction: Built/listed in 2026 (spec new construction)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction unitLiving area approximately 1664