19449 Cotton Bay 180 N · North Fort Myers, FL 33903

$219,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Est $209k · 5% over · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Coming This Summer! Don't miss this beautiful brand-new lakeview 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,664 sq. ft. Skyline home. Enjoy peaceful water views from the large front porch, perfect for relaxing outdoors. Built with 2×6 walls and thermal pane windows, this home offers superior insulation, durability, and year-round comfort. Inside, you'll find stainless steel kitchen appliances and a spacious layout ready for your personal furnishings and style. Quality construction, serene surroundings, and modern comfort come together in this stunning new home.

Key facts

• Quality construction
• Large front porch
• Lakeview

Tags

• LAKEVIEW
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• SUPERIOR INSULATION
• THERMAL PANE WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• QUALITY CONSTRUCTION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed for $219,995

Exterior

• Home design: Condo/Apartment style unit (plan: 19449 COTTON BAY #180); Address: 19449 Cotton Bay 180 N, Fort Myers FL 33903
• Construction: Built/listed in 2026 (spec new construction)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction unit; Living area approximately 1664

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $213k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 472 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,347/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 468% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,395 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.51%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,915
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19844 Eagle Trace Ct	1.15mi	2/2.0	1,580 (-5%)	0mo	$147,000	$93	56
19851 Eagle Trace Ct S	1.21mi	2/2.0	1,519 (-9%)	9mo	$105,000	$69	43
19808 Frenchmans Ct	1.24mi	2/2.0	1,552 (-7%)	20mo	$180,000	$116	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-21,217
• Equity at exit: $32,802

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,521
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33903

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $219,995

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $410	+0% $334	+5% $258	+10% $182
Rent	-10% $149	-5% $241	+0% $334	+5% $427	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $445	-0.5pp $390	base $334	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,999
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19621 N Tamiami Trl North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,300	$1.08	24d	1	0.48mi
10401 Circle Pine Rd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1294	$3,000	$2.32	24d	1	0.58mi
20038 Fiddlewood Ave North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1519	$1,999	$1.32	20d	1	0.62mi
20056 Sweetbay Dr North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$4,000	$2.39	24d	1	0.65mi
19414 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,499	$1.20	3d	1	0.71mi
19477 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,499	$1.03	3d	1	0.72mi
19421 Bermuda Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,499	$1.25	3d	1	0.72mi
20559 Long Pond Rd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,295	$1.27	24d	1	0.77mi
19152 Meadowbrook Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,499	$1.20	3d	1	0.79mi
4036 Avenue Del Tura North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1568	$1,950	$1.24	24d	1	0.93mi
20728 Tisbury Ln North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2133	$5,000	$2.34	15d	1	1.09mi
2481 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,000	$2.76	22d	1	1.27mi
2481 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,000	$2.76	17d	1	1.27mi
2130 Rio Nuevo Dr Unit 1546442P North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$4,682	$3.75	15d	1	1.36mi
1900 Corona del Sire Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1449	$2,400	$1.66	24d	1	1.37mi
2117 NE 40th St Cape Coral, FL	3.0	3.0	1776	$2,100	$1.18	17d	1	1.45mi
1670 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1604	$2,700	$1.68	4d	1	1.46mi
4215 E Gator Cir Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,725	$1.25	4d	1	1.46mi
2300 Valparaiso Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1237	$3,000	$2.43	17d	1	1.48mi
2300 Valparaiso Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1237	$4,000	$3.23	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,995 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,995 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,995 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,995 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,995 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,995 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,995 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,995 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $538
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$129
• After-tax cash flow: $3,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new, move-in-ready manufactured home offers serene lake views and modern comfort, ideal for those seeking a peaceful and stylish living environment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior furnishings — Personalizes the space and makes it move-in ready

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior furnishings — Personalizes the space and makes it move-in ready ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,655
• Household income: $56,993
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 468.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.26%
• Current HPI: 256.773
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.94%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B