227 Crestwood Cir · Centerville, GA 31028

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1992 0.33 ac lot $112/sqft · 14% below area Est $215k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just a bit of TLC and this all-brick home can be just what you need. A shady backyard with privacy fence is peaceful but you're just a short drive from shopping and dining! Home is being sold AS-IS. Take a look and make it yours!

Key facts

• Shady backyard
• Privacy fence
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• SHADY BACKYARD
• PRIVACY FENCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; 1,652 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (0.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.8% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#56 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Elementary School (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #264 of 1,228 statewide, top 23%, 630 students, 84% FRL); Thomson Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #234 of 470 statewide, top 50%, 736 students, 84% FRL); Northside High School (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #331 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,959 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 46% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,015 (0.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.48%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,180
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -14.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 Crestwood Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,652 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$103	99
106 Crestwood Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-5%)	0mo	$236,000	$150	87
107 Chris Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+5%)	1mo	$90,000	$52	69
303 Woodhaven Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-4%)	1mo	$218,000	$138	65
210 Webb St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-3%)	2mo	$235,000	$147	65
114 Collins Estate Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,817 (+10%)	4mo	$309,900	$171	64
200 Collins Estate Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,812 (+10%)	2mo	$289,900	$160	62
114 Collins Estate Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,817 (+10%)	4mo	$309,900	$171	59
402 Collins Estate Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,850 (+12%)	4mo	$295,000	$159	59
205 Scarborough Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,761 (+7%)	2mo	$225,000	$128	53
407 Collins Ave Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,546 (-6%)	4mo	$149,900	$97	52
214 Mcvey Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-14%)	2mo	$238,000	$167	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,484
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $17,955
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31028

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,432

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $427	-5% $375	+0% $323	+5% $270	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $250	+0% $323	+5% $395	+10% $468
Rate	-1.0pp $416	-0.5pp $370	base $323	+0.5pp $275	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Abney Ct Centerville, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	22d	1	0.41mi
213 Webb St Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	22d	1	0.62mi
208 Wray St Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,700	$1.13	15d	1	0.76mi
111 Rainbow Ave Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,695	$1.19	22d	1	0.80mi
111 Rainbow Ave Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,695	$1.19	45d	1	0.80mi
106 Scarborough Rd Centerville, GA	3.0	2.0	1471	$1,400	$0.95	22d	1	0.88mi
700 Fieldstone Rd Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,625	$1.21	45d	1	0.96mi
210 Surrey Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,600	$0.99	22d	1	0.96mi
111 Hawthorne Rd Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,500	$0.97	45d	1	0.98mi
431 Sentry Oak Dr Centerville, GA	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,695	$1.29	45d	1	0.99mi
108 Stonefield Ct Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,475	$0.99	45d	1	1.08mi
501 Pinecrest Dr Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	45d	1	1.08mi
105 Arnold St Centerville, GA	2.0	1.5	1122	$1,295	$1.15	15d	1	1.17mi
104 Woodcarver Trl Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	15d	1	1.25mi
203 Lumpkin Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	3.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	45d	1	1.30mi
117 Wingate Cir Warner Robins, GA	2.0	1.5	1155	$1,425	$1.23	22d	1	1.43mi
114 Tahoe Ln Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,800	$1.33	45d	1	1.45mi
135 Sussex Dr Warner Robins, GA	2.0	2.0	2047	$1,495	$0.73	45d	1	1.47mi
100 Robins West Pkwy Warner Robins, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,347	$1.37	15d	7	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-12
   historical Active Under Contract 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Just a bit of TLC and this all-brick home can be just what you need. A shady backyard with privacy fence is peaceful but you're just a short drive from shopping and dining! Home is being sold AS-IS. Take a look and make it yours!

2. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Just a bit of TLC and this all-brick home can be just what you need. A shady backyard with privacy fence is peaceful but you're just a short drive from shopping and dining! Home is being sold AS-IS. Take a look and make it yours!

3. 2026-05-07
   listed $185,000 Active 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Just a bit of TLC and this all-brick home can be just what you need. A shady backyard with privacy fence is peaceful but you're just a short drive from shopping and dining! Home is being sold AS-IS. Take a look and make it yours!

4. 2026-05-07
   listed $185,000 Active 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Just a bit of TLC and this all-brick home can be just what you need. A shady backyard with privacy fence is peaceful but you're just a short drive from shopping and dining! Home is being sold AS-IS. Take a look and make it yours!

5. 1992-10-05
   soldstatus $85,900
6. 1992-07-21
   soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$697/yr (+$58/mo · 69.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $874
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$210
• After-tax cash flow: $3,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #5374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, GA
• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 6,312
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 6,645
• Household income: $76,342
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 41% Asian 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Armenian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Arabic 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.75%
• Current HPI: 215.7835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1316.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-26 Sold (MLS) $170,000 MGMLS
• 2026-05-26 Sold (MLS) $170,000 CGMLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — MGMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — CGMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $185,000 MGMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $185,000 CGMLS
• 1992-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $85,900 Public Records
• 1992-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,005 · +16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.