2040 Warrior Trl · Rockwood, VA 23236

$315,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 243 Days on market

Built 1973 0.39 ac lot $188/sqft · at area comps Est $320k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Price Adjustment to $315,000!! Introducing 2040 Warrior Trail, an All Brick Ranch-style which will be a fantastic home for your family. Your large Living Room is right at the Entrance, where you will greet and entertain your guests. The Formal Dining Room graces the Eat-In Kitchen which will be the center of your Family Universe, the Family Room is several steps away with a cozy Fireplace. Off of the Dining Room is your Sun Room having 3 glass sides to overlook your Rear Yard. Further down the Hallway, 3 Bedrooms and Full Bath await. Off of the Family Room is your Laundry Room and a Half Bath. The exterior is Brick and a Good Size Rear Yard. Located in a quiet neighborhood with so many conveniences nearby. Home is ready for you to move right into.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• All brick ranch
• Sun room

Tags

• ALL BRICK RANCH
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• SUN ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-951/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Rockwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#86 in VA, #2,803 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $315k implies a 659% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,236 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,631
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -1.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10520 W Providence Rd	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,648 (-1%)	3mo	$345,000	$209	80
2030 Cadillac Trl	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,560 (-7%)	4mo	$405,000	$260	68
10125 Saint Joan Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,703 (+2%)	3mo	$325,000	$191	64
2002 Castle Glen Ct	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,755 (+5%)	2mo	$405,000	$231	62
9919 Castle Glen Ter	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (-5%)	1mo	$368,000	$232	55
10221 Sauna Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,425 (-15%)	3mo	$340,000	$239	55
10130 Wood Vale Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,805 (+8%)	2mo	$430,000	$238	53
10326 Seacliff Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-12%)	5mo	$359,900	$246	52
2006 Bethany Ridge Ter	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (-12%)	2mo	$303,000	$206	49
1949 Castle Glen Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,907 (+14%)	2mo	$480,000	$252	45
1331 Burlington Rd	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,839 (+10%)	3mo	$390,000	$212	42
11120 Pennway Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,836 (+10%)	4mo	$390,000	$212	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-54,213
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-45,872
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23236

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,802/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,553

Max offer price $300,999

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $10	+0% $-79	+5% $-168	+10% $-258
Rent	-10% $-273	-5% $-176	+0% $-79	+5% $18	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $1	base $-79	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3310 Old Courthouse Rd North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	880	$2,408	$2.74	3d	9	1.18mi
3015 Chislet Dr Midlothian, VA	4.0	2.5	2010	$2,995	$1.49	24d	1	1.36mi
2900 Clintwood Rd Midlothian, VA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,225	$1.48	20d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 233 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $315,000 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Nice Price Adjustment to $315,000!! Introducing 2040 Warrior Trail, an All Brick Ranch-style which will be a fantastic home for your family. Your large Living Room is right at the Entrance, where you will greet and entertain your guests. The Formal Dining Room graces the Eat-In Kitchen which will be the center of your Family Universe, the Family Room is several steps away with a cozy Fireplace. Off of the Dining Room is your Sun Room having 3 glass sides to overlook your Rear Yard. Further down the Hallway, 3 Bedrooms and Full Bath await. Off of the Family Room is your Laundry Room and a Half Bath. The exterior is Brick and a Good Size Rear Yard. Located in a quiet neighborhood with so many conveniences nearby. Home is ready for you to move right into.

16. 2026-04-09
    price $334,900 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Nice Price Adjustment to $315,000!! Introducing 2040 Warrior Trail, an All Brick Ranch-style which will be a fantastic home for your family. Your large Living Room is right at the Entrance, where you will greet and entertain your guests. The Formal Dining Room graces the Eat-In Kitchen which will be the center of your Family Universe, the Family Room is several steps away with a cozy Fireplace. Off of the Dining Room is your Sun Room having 3 glass sides to overlook your Rear Yard. Further down the Hallway, 3 Bedrooms and Full Bath await. Off of the Family Room is your Laundry Room and a Half Bath. The exterior is Brick and a Good Size Rear Yard. Located in a quiet neighborhood with so many conveniences nearby. Home is ready for you to move right into.

17. 2026-02-19
    price $344,900 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Nice Price Adjustment to $315,000!! Introducing 2040 Warrior Trail, an All Brick Ranch-style which will be a fantastic home for your family. Your large Living Room is right at the Entrance, where you will greet and entertain your guests. The Formal Dining Room graces the Eat-In Kitchen which will be the center of your Family Universe, the Family Room is several steps away with a cozy Fireplace. Off of the Dining Room is your Sun Room having 3 glass sides to overlook your Rear Yard. Further down the Hallway, 3 Bedrooms and Full Bath await. Off of the Family Room is your Laundry Room and a Half Bath. The exterior is Brick and a Good Size Rear Yard. Located in a quiet neighborhood with so many conveniences nearby. Home is ready for you to move right into.

18. 2026-01-11
    status Active 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Nice Price Adjustment to $315,000!! Introducing 2040 Warrior Trail, an All Brick Ranch-style which will be a fantastic home for your family. Your large Living Room is right at the Entrance, where you will greet and entertain your guests. The Formal Dining Room graces the Eat-In Kitchen which will be the center of your Family Universe, the Family Room is several steps away with a cozy Fireplace. Off of the Dining Room is your Sun Room having 3 glass sides to overlook your Rear Yard. Further down the Hallway, 3 Bedrooms and Full Bath await. Off of the Family Room is your Laundry Room and a Half Bath. The exterior is Brick and a Good Size Rear Yard. Located in a quiet neighborhood with so many conveniences nearby. Home is ready for you to move right into.

19. 2026-01-11
    price $359,900 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Nice Price Adjustment to $315,000!! Introducing 2040 Warrior Trail, an All Brick Ranch-style which will be a fantastic home for your family. Your large Living Room is right at the Entrance, where you will greet and entertain your guests. The Formal Dining Room graces the Eat-In Kitchen which will be the center of your Family Universe, the Family Room is several steps away with a cozy Fireplace. Off of the Dining Room is your Sun Room having 3 glass sides to overlook your Rear Yard. Further down the Hallway, 3 Bedrooms and Full Bath await. Off of the Family Room is your Laundry Room and a Half Bath. The exterior is Brick and a Good Size Rear Yard. Located in a quiet neighborhood with so many conveniences nearby. Home is ready for you to move right into.

20. 2025-08-06
    listed $279,900 Active 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Nice Price Adjustment to $315,000!! Introducing 2040 Warrior Trail, an All Brick Ranch-style which will be a fantastic home for your family. Your large Living Room is right at the Entrance, where you will greet and entertain your guests. The Formal Dining Room graces the Eat-In Kitchen which will be the center of your Family Universe, the Family Room is several steps away with a cozy Fireplace. Off of the Dining Room is your Sun Room having 3 glass sides to overlook your Rear Yard. Further down the Hallway, 3 Bedrooms and Full Bath await. Off of the Family Room is your Laundry Room and a Half Bath. The exterior is Brick and a Good Size Rear Yard. Located in a quiet neighborhood with so many conveniences nearby. Home is ready for you to move right into.

21. 1994-05-18
    soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,802 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,802 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,802
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,354
• − Management: −$2,354
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rockwood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #2803

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockwood, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 27,903
• Household income: $110,499
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 419.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.45%
• Current HPI: 284.4448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+659.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $315,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $334,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $344,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-11 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $359,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $279,900 CVRMLS
• 1994-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,802 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.