122 Manor Dr · Shirley, NY 11967

$350,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,423 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1958 0.29 ac lot $246/sqft · 31% below area Est $533k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! 4-bedroom, 2-bath property situated on a generous lot in a desirable location. This home offers strong potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking to renovate and customize. Property features a flexible layout with ample interior space and a large yard ideal for expansion or outdoor enhancements. Property is being sold as-is with no representations. Buyer responsible for all due diligence, including permits, certificates of occupancy, and any necessary approvals. Cash or renovation financing preferred. Excellent opportunity to add value in a growing area. Property is boarded up. Drive-by only or make appointment to view exterior of the property! No interior access permitted. Property is being sold AS-IS and will be delivered vacant.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 74 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $819 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $329k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.8% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $350k implies a 355% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $329,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.03%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $532,528
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -34.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Rugby Dr E	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,274 (-10%)	6mo	$465,000	$365	74
2 Lafayette Dr	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,334 (-6%)	2mo	$400,000	$300	74
6 Lafayette Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+5%)	5mo	$572,000	$381	71
9 Brushwood Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,400 (-2%)	4mo	$495,000	$354	70
17 Pinetree Dr	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,447 (+2%)	6mo	$535,000	$370	66
31 Roneck Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-2%)	1mo	$655,000	$468	65
70 Trafalgar Dr	0.33mi	4/1.0	1,550 (+9%)	6mo	$495,000	$319	63
2 Brushwood Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,268 (-11%)	1mo	$560,000	$442	58
514 Neighborhood Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-2%)	2mo	$549,990	$393	55
46 Saint George Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-12%)	3mo	$450,000	$361	50
82 Grandview Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,520 (+7%)	5mo	$463,500	$305	48
27 Pinewood Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,250 (-12%)	1mo	$598,000	$478	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-4,446
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $63,764
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$527 /mo · $6,330/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$885
• Net cashflow: $819

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,176

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,017	-5% $918	+0% $819	+5% $720	+10% $621
Rent	-10% $486	-5% $652	+0% $819	+5% $985	+10% $1,152
Rate	-1.0pp $995	-0.5pp $908	base $819	+0.5pp $728	+1.0pp $636

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	4d	1	0.22mi
44 Pine Tree Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$4,200	$2.62	0d	1	0.34mi
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	0d	1	0.82mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	0d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $350,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $350,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    status Active 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    Investor special! 4-bedroom, 2-bath property situated on a generous lot in a desirable location. This home offers strong potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking to renovate and customize. Property features a flexible layout with ample interior space and a large yard ideal for expansion or outdoor enhancements. Property is being sold as-is with no representations. Buyer responsible for all due diligence, including permits, certificates of occupancy, and any necessary approvals. Cash or renovation financing preferred. Excellent opportunity to add value in a growing area. Property is boarded up. Drive-by only or make appointment to view exterior of the property! No interior access permitted. Property is being sold AS-IS and will be delivered vacant.

17. 2025-12-30
    status Pending 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    Investor special! 4-bedroom, 2-bath property situated on a generous lot in a desirable location. This home offers strong potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking to renovate and customize. Property features a flexible layout with ample interior space and a large yard ideal for expansion or outdoor enhancements. Property is being sold as-is with no representations. Buyer responsible for all due diligence, including permits, certificates of occupancy, and any necessary approvals. Cash or renovation financing preferred. Excellent opportunity to add value in a growing area. Property is boarded up. Drive-by only or make appointment to view exterior of the property! No interior access permitted. Property is being sold AS-IS and will be delivered vacant.

18. 2025-12-19
    listed $350,000 Active 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    Investor special! 4-bedroom, 2-bath property situated on a generous lot in a desirable location. This home offers strong potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking to renovate and customize. Property features a flexible layout with ample interior space and a large yard ideal for expansion or outdoor enhancements. Property is being sold as-is with no representations. Buyer responsible for all due diligence, including permits, certificates of occupancy, and any necessary approvals. Cash or renovation financing preferred. Excellent opportunity to add value in a growing area. Property is boarded up. Drive-by only or make appointment to view exterior of the property! No interior access permitted. Property is being sold AS-IS and will be delivered vacant.

19. 1986-09-29
    soldstatus $77,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,330 · $527/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,330 · $527/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$6,330
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,044
• − Management: −$4,044
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable income: $4,591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $8,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+354.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,330 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.