3834 Sarah Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$79,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1973 4,123 sqft lot $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Terrace Park, a charming and active 55+ community where you own the land and enjoy affordable Florida living! Whether you're searching for the perfect winter retreat or a full-time residence, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers incredible potential with just a little TLC. Nestled in a friendly, close-knit neighborhood, residents enjoy a low annual HOA fee of only $551, providing access to a heated community pool, shuffleboard courts, clubhouse, and a full calendar of social activities and events throughout the year. Inside, you'll find a comfortable floor plan ready for your personal touches and updates. Outside, enjoy the relaxed Florida lifestyle with nearby shopping, dining,

Key facts

• 4,123 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Living area approximately 672 square feet; Building area estimated at 1,122 square feet; Lot about 0.09 acres (level)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly $45.92 / annual $551); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Association approval required; Community features: association-owned recreation, buyer approval required, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, street lights; Pets allowed (max ~20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single wide mobile home; Residential property; One story; Faces west; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built in approximately (single wide mobile home)
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed, screened porch/patio; Hurricane shutters; Sidewalk; Level lot; Asphalt-paved public road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $924 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $80k implies a 261% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.83%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $405,888
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3836 Chris Dr	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	600 (-11%)	12mo	$120,000	$200	59
34125 Chancey Rd	0.47mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	12mo	$435,000	$604	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $40,364
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $89,230
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,376/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $924

Break-even live

Break-even rent $772

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $969	-5% $947	+0% $924	+5% $902	+10% $879
Rent	-10% $771	-5% $848	+0% $924	+5% $1,001	+10% $1,078
Rate	-1.0pp $964	-0.5pp $945	base $924	+0.5pp $904	+1.0pp $883

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,208	$2.16	4d	46	0.81mi
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	16d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,500 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $79,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,376
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,864
• − Management: −$1,864
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $10,494
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,519
• After-tax cash flow: $8,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+793.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $79,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1986-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,376 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.