407 E Hillsdale Dr · Jackson, MS 39209

$137,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2024 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

New build in established neighborhood. Great opportunity to own this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in a central location with easy interstate access. Give your favorite realtor a call today to make this home yours. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2024

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 0640-0149-000; Annual tax listed (not included per instructions)
• Financial info: Not specified
• HOA & community: Not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Driveway
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; House; One level; New construction; Living area listed as 1,200
• Construction: Brick and HardiPlank exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Year built from public records (not specified)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Lot about 0.19 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free‑standing range; Microwave; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $137,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $31,280.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $732 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 34.4% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: North Jackson Elementary School (math 7% / reading 25%, grade F, #270 of 375 statewide, top 72%, 383 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($216 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,369 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.29%
• DSCR: 5.46
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $31,280
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
324 Windsor Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	950 (+3%)	1mo	$15,900	$17	82
127 Carolyn Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	944 (+3%)	22mo	$37,500	$40	51
5226 Andover Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+13%)	13mo	$35,000	$34	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.27×
• Total profit: $63,683
• Equity at exit: $28,180

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.23×
• Total profit: $150,923
• Equity at exit: $60,770

Cash invested: $8,758 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39209

• Home prices YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$164
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $597/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $732

Break-even live

Break-even rent $287

Max offer price $31,280

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $750	-5% $741	+0% $732	+5% $723	+10% $714
Rent	-10% $636	-5% $684	+0% $732	+5% $780	+10% $828
Rate	-1.0pp $748	-0.5pp $740	base $732	+0.5pp $724	+1.0pp $716

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,820
• Closing costs: $938
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5301 Queen Mary Ln Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,338	$1.22	14d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $137,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   status $144,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
9. 2026-04-07
   status Active
10. 2026-04-02
    status Pending
11. 2026-03-27
    listed $144,900 Active
12. 2005-10-20
    soldstatus
13. 1996-05-02
    soldstatus
14. 1992-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $597 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,089 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$493/yr (+$41/mo · 82.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,752
• − Property taxes: −$597
• − Insurance: −$156
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − Depreciation: −$910
• Taxable income: $8,819
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,116
• After-tax cash flow: $6,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,776
• Household income: $36,344
• Rent vs Own: 52.3% rent · 47.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1627.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 7% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.28%
• Current HPI: 312.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-04-02 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-27 Listed $144,900 MLSU
• 2005-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $597 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.