23409 Tangerine St · Harlingen, TX 78552

$220,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,373 sqft · SingleFamily · 196 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,347 sqft lot $160/sqft · 6% below area Est $235k · 6% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and built for comfort, this newer 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open kitchen and living layout that’s perfect for everyday living and easy entertaining. Enjoy durable tile floors throughout and foam insulation for energy efficiency. Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, the classic brick exterior, large covered carport, and great backyard provide space to relax, garden, or host.

Key facts

• 6,347 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-740/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Harlingen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#217 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute F, employment F.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilson El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 393 students, 86% FRL); Gutierrez Middle (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Harlingen H S (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,942 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,646 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,755
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -6.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23314 Grapefruit Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,356 (-1%)	12mo	$215,000	$159	77
17231 Mandarin Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (-5%)	13mo	$199,900	$153	73
17200 Mandarin Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,487 (+8%)	6mo	$205,000	$138	72
17282 Mandarin Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,547 (+13%)	20mo	$229,400	$148	56
23280 Tangerine Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,246 (-9%)	24mo	$185,000	$148	54
5113 Doral Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (+6%)	6mo	$238,000	$164	49
16565 W Duff Ct W	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (+11%)	18mo	$264,000	$173	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-44,960
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-65,007
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.5 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $220,370 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 128 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78552

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $211,077

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $14	+0% $-62	+5% $-138	+10% $-214
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-135	+0% $-62	+5% $11	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-6	base $-62	+0.5pp $-119	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1007 El Paso Cir Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,600	$1.33	139d	1	0.47mi
23861 Ellie Ln Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,650	$1.35	116d	1	0.53mi
16584 Barnes Ct Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$2,300	$1.45	0d	1	0.73mi
17931 Spruce St Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,850	$1.44	139d	1	1.00mi
18032 Spruce St Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,850	$1.51	0d	1	1.03mi
5108 Manana Cir Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,900	$1.10	109d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $220,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $220,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $220,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $220,000 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $220,000 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $220,000 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 173 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 172 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $220,000 Active 171 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $220,000 Active 170 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $220,000 Active 169 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $220,000 Active 167 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $220,000 Active 166 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $220,000 Active 165 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $220,000 Active 164 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $220,000 Active 163 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $220,000 Active 162 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $220,000 Active 161 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $220,000 Active 160 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $220,000 Active 159 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $220,000 Active 158 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $220,000 Active 157 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $220,000 Active 156 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $220,000 Active 155 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $220,000 Active 154 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $220,000 Active 153 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $220,000 Active 152 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $220,000 Active 151 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 150 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 149 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $220,000 Active 148 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 147 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 146 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 145 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 142 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $220,000 Active 140 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $220,000 Active 138 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $220,000 Active 136 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $220,000 Active 134 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $220,000 Active 133 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $220,000 Active 132 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,773
• − Management: −$1,773
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,083
• After-tax cash flow: $343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,865–$20,595 screening

This move-in ready home offers a good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. Simple improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Adding a small shed or storage unit — Provides additional storage and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Can improve the overall aesthetic and functionality of the bathrooms, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wilson El F TX #1,995/4,322 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Gutierrez Middle F TX #1,122/1,662 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Dr Abraham P Cano Freshman Academy F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Harlingen

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #5347

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cameron County · 441,603 people
• City population: 95,667
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,332
• Household income: $69,811
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 31% White 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.61%
• Current HPI: 197.1906
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $220,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $220,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $265,000 SPIBOR