13501 W Warfield Cir · Marana, AZ 85658

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1986 10,367 sqft lot Est $203k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely remodeled 3 bed, 2 bath mobile home offering 1,088 sq ft on just under a quarter-acre lot! This move-in ready home features a new roof, new AC, new electric panel, and new hot water heater for peace of mind. Inside, enjoy vaulted ceilings, wood-look flooring, updated lighting, and a bright open great room. The remodeled kitchen showcases white shaker cabinets, granite countertops, and a center island with breakfast bar. Stove, microwave, and dishwasher to be installed prior to close of escrow. Spacious primary suite includes a private bath. Out back, Oversized front and back yards offer plenty of room for entertaining, storage, or future possibilities. Hurry up and check it out!

Key facts

• New hot water heater
• New electric panel
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC
• NEW ELECTRIC PANEL
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• VAULTED CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; fees paid quarterly; Association lists no additional amenities

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Water from a company supply; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Stucco and wood-frame construction; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Shed(s); Block and chain-link fencing; Paved street; Street lights; East/West exposure; Subdivided lot

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.3% in Marana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#67 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marjorie W Estes Elementary School (math 20% / reading 26%, grade F, #673 of 1,109 statewide, top 61%, 570 students, 49% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $215k implies a 291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.73%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,456
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13457 N Warfield Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (-6%)	1mo	$193,000	$188	75
13521 N Warfield Cir	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+15%)	11mo	$210,000	$168	63
13427 N Warfield Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	13mo	$229,900	$187	58
13469 N Warfield Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+13%)	17mo	$210,000	$170	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-16,655
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $8,872
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85658

• Home prices YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $481/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,784

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $407	-5% $347	+0% $286	+5% $225	+10% $164
Rent	-10% $116	-5% $201	+0% $286	+5% $370	+10% $455
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $340	base $286	+0.5pp $230	+1.0pp $173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11377 W Folsom Point Dr Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,800	$1.30	0d	1	1.02mi
11379 W Burning Sage St Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,795	$1.42	25d	1	1.09mi
14214 N Spear Point Way Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,855	$1.34	0d	1	1.10mi
11629 W Despain Dr Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,850	$1.40	45d	1	1.15mi
10518 W Harrigan Dr Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1262	$2,000	$1.58	16d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $215,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active Contingent 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active Contingent 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active Contingent 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $215,000 Active Contingent 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-29
    listed $215,000 Active
18. 2000-03-31
    soldstatus $55,000
19. 2000-03-31
    soldstatus $55,000
20. 2000-02-25
    soldstatus $47,500
21. 1999-02-04
    soldstatus $55,500
22. 1997-03-20
    soldstatus $45,000
23. 1994-10-24
    soldstatus $49,000
24. 1993-01-04
    soldstatus $19,000
25. 1992-01-02
    soldstatus $19,000
26. 1987-03-01
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $481 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$938/yr (+$78/mo · 194.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$481
• − Insurance: −$2,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$52
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12
• After-tax cash flow: $3,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Marana

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #11113

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marana, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 39,625
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 16,051
• Household income: $123,415
• Rent vs Own: 14.3% rent · 85.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.72%
• Current HPI: 272.3729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1287.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $215,000 MLSSAZ
• 2000-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2000-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 1999-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records
• 1997-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1993-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records
• 1992-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records
• 1987-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $481 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.