1896 Bell Ave #164 · Sacramento, CA 95838

$209,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · Manufactured · 154 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $155k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Village Green, a gated all-ages community offering resort-style amenities including a swimming pool, clubhouse, sports courts, playground, and dog park. This newly built 2025 residence showcases modern design and quality finishes throughout, featuring laminate flooring, stone countertops, shaker-style cabinetry, and a spacious kitchen island equipped with Samsung appliances. Dual-pane windows and 9-foot ceilings create bright, open living spaces filled with natural light. The thoughtfully designed floor plan includes three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a covered front porch ideal for relaxing, and a carport for convenient parking. Ideally located near schools, shopping, and public tra

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse
• Swimming pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• SPORTS COURTS
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Sacramento County (postal code 95838)
• Financial info: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Double-wide; Built in 2025; Located at 1896 Bell Ave #164, Sacramento, CA 95838
• Construction: Double-wide manufactured construction; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Roof details: see remarks; Lot details: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Ice maker; Dishwasher; Microwave; Kitchen island; Synthetic countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub and separate shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Great room living area; Porch; Island with synthetic counters in kitchen; Dining space in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; 220-volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Robla Elementary (urban): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #923 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.05%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,100
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
152 Village Cir #152	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-5%)	8mo	$125,000	$93	86
110 Village Cicle	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	10mo	$98,000	$68	84
194 Village Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	13mo	$187,000	$130	82
88 Village Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-12%)	0mo	$136,900	$110	77
81 Village Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-1%)	24mo	$212,900	$152	76
135 Village Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	22mo	$210,000	$146	75
4 Commodore Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	20mo	$187,500	$130	69
62 Kit Ln	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-5%)	23mo	$110,000	$82	66
192 Village Cir #192	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+11%)	14mo	$169,000	$108	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-15,716
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,650
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95838

• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,336 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $209,999

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3720 Astoria St Unit 8 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,395	$1.47	2d	1	0.67mi
4426 Dry Creek Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1408	$2,700	$1.92	2d	1	0.94mi
1138 North Ave Unit A Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	2d	1	1.03mi
3829 Belden St Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,126	$2.12	44d	1	1.16mi
4015 May St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	875	$1,850	$2.11	24d	1	1.17mi
3226 Pilgrim Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,700	$2.08	2d	1	1.17mi
917 Blaine Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1558	$3,000	$1.93	2d	1	1.22mi
3231 Del Mar Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1380	$2,095	$1.52	16d	1	1.37mi
2256 Frazier Ct Unit ADU Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	917	$2,350	$2.56	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,999 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,999 Active 153 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,243
• − Management: −$2,243
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $1,478
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$355
• After-tax cash flow: $4,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robla Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0633240
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,481
• Composite: 31.64/100
• National rank: #11126
• State rank: #923 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 40,677
• Household income: $68,349
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1834.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 37% White 21% Asian 18% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -391.80%
• Current HPI: 415.1804
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.74%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B