Pinehollow Plan · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$282,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · SingleFamily · 379 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $282,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $267,014.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 379 days — a 12% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $249,031 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 379 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.31%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,014
• List price: $282,990
• Delta: 5.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11998 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,607 (0%)	1mo	$232,040	$144	79
11681 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (+2%)	0mo	$266,990	$163	75
11677 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-2%)	0mo	$256,990	$163	74
11716 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+3%)	1mo	$238,990	$144	64
29961 Stony Forest Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,722 (+7%)	1mo	$349,900	$203	56
12010 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-12%)	1mo	$213,040	$151	54
11708 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (+9%)	1mo	$279,990	$160	54
11995 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	1mo	$215,340	$152	54
11990 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-12%)	1mo	$224,990	$160	53
29934 Stony Forest Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	1,785 (+11%)	1mo	$314,900	$176	49
12039 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	0mo	$223,590	$158	45
11986 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	1mo	$222,440	$157	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $148,005
• Equity at exit: $240,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $416,724
• Equity at exit: $518,750

Cash invested: $74,764 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,400
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$334 /mo · $4,005/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,336

Max offer price $267,014

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,754
• Closing costs: $8,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	43d	1	0.46mi
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	43d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $282,990 Active 379 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $282,990 Active 378 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $282,990 Active 377 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $282,990 Active 376 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,990 Active 374 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $282,990 Active 370 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $282,990 Active 369 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $282,990 Active 368 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $282,990 Active 365 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $282,990 Active 364 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $282,990 Active 363 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $282,990 Active 362 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $282,990 Active 361 DOM
14. 2025-06-04
    listed $282,990 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,957
• − Property taxes: −$4,005
• − Insurance: −$1,335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,417
• − Management: −$2,417
• − Depreciation: −$7,768
• Taxable loss: −$2,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$645
• After-tax cash flow: $2,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in The Woodlands, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. The property is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and attract more buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract eco-conscious buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-04 Listed $282,990 Zillow