Plan 2003 Modeled Plan · Barrett, TX 77532

$236,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,003 sqft · SingleFamily · 226 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Open floor plan * 6-panel interior doors * Front porch * Kitchen island * Den * Extra storage space * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Master-planned community * Near top-rated schools * Planned pickleball court * Planned parks * Planned playground

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Smart thermostat
• Gas range

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• 6-PANEL INTERIOR DOORS

🏗️ New construction. The $236,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $290,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-491 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 5.9% in Barrett — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,771 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.26%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,990
• List price: $236,995
• Delta: -18.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12823 Ivy Creek Ct	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,014 (+0%)	4mo	$315,240	$157	81
13038 Dianna Lee Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,979 (-1%)	4mo	$241,590	$122	78
12822 Ivy Creek Ct	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (-4%)	4mo	$262,990	$137	76
12727 Cobbler Glenn Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (-4%)	1mo	$268,990	$140	76
12818 Ivy Creek Ct	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-4%)	4mo	$248,640	$129	73
1531 Chimney Springs Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-4%)	3mo	$255,990	$133	71
12815 Ivy Creek Ct	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (-7%)	4mo	$272,190	$146	70
1511 Chimney Springs Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (+8%)	0mo	$298,990	$139	66
1507 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,737 (-13%)	2mo	$260,790	$150	64
1543 Chimney Springs Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (+8%)	3mo	$284,991	$132	63
1531 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,737 (-13%)	4mo	$254,990	$147	62
12807 Ivy Creek Ct	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-14%)	3mo	$220,991	$129	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-81,400
• Equity at exit: $43,388

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-122,926
• Equity at exit: $25,159

Cash invested: $81,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 64 active · 65 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $247,192 ($131/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1919
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,365/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,630

Max offer price $219,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-290	-5% $-391	+0% $-491	+5% $-592	+10% $-692
Rent	-10% $-650	-5% $-571	+0% $-491	+5% $-412	+10% $-333
Rate	-1.0pp $-345	-0.5pp $-417	base $-491	+0.5pp $-567	+1.0pp $-643

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,748
• Closing costs: $8,730
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13702 Sun Bear Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1899	$1,899	$1.00	85d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $236,995 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $236,995 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $236,995 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $236,995 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $236,995 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $236,995 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $236,995 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $236,995 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $236,995 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $236,995 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $236,995 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $236,995 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $236,995 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $236,995 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $236,995 Active 211 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $236,995 Active 210 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $236,995 Active 209 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $236,995 Active 208 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $236,995 Active 207 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $236,995 Active 206 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $236,995 Active 205 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $236,995 Active 204 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $236,995 Active 203 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $236,995 Active 202 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $236,995 Active 201 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $236,995 Active 200 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $236,995 Active 199 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $236,995 Active 198 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $236,995 Active 197 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $236,995 Active 196 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $236,995 Active 195 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $236,995 Active 194 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    price $236,995 Active 193 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $237,995 Active 193 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $237,995 Active 192 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $237,995 Active 191 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $237,995 Active 190 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $237,995 Active 189 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $237,995 Active 188 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $237,995 Active 187 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $237,995 Active 186 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $237,995 Active 185 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $237,995 Active 184 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $237,995 Active 183 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $237,995 Active 182 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $237,995 Active 181 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $237,995 Active 180 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $237,995 Active 179 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $237,995 Active 178 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $237,995 Active 177 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,300
• − Property taxes: −$4,365
• − Insurance: −$2,252
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − Depreciation: −$8,465
• Taxable loss: −$11,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,675
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,015–$30,045 screening

This home is in good condition with a fresh paint job and well-maintained landscaping. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with drought-tolerant plants — Reduces maintenance and improves curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $254,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $264,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Listed $272,995 Zillow