3862 Ryans Rdg · Raisinville, MI 48161

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 184 Days on market

Built 2000 3,600 sqft lot $700/mo HOA · 47% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1,680 sq. ft. , 3 bedroom, 2 full bath, manufactured home with large living room and family room with fireplace. Open floor plan. Home is move in ready. Appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Raisin Ridge mobile home park currently monthly lot rent is $700. There is no "For Sale" sign on property.

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monroe Public Schools (suburban): math 24% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #278 of 540 in MI (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.92%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,360
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3862 Ryans Rdg	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	0mo	$45,000	$27	98
3936 Rivers Pt	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (-3%)	20mo	$75,000	$46	59
3148 Apple Blossom Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+7%)	8mo	$398,265	$221	53
895 Trey Rdg	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+11%)	23mo	$63,000	$34	50
973 Plum Tree Cir	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,820 (+8%)	13mo	$335,000	$184	49
151 Aberdeen Ln Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,902 (+13%)	3mo	$320,000	$168	42
3416 S Custer Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,818 (+8%)	19mo	$315,000	$173	39
3770 N Custer Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,824 (+9%)	22mo	$277,000	$152	39
958 Cameron Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+14%)	22mo	$50,000	$26	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $3,138
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $17,418
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48161

• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$700
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,280

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $700 · $8,400/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   1,680 sq. ft. , 3 bedroom, 2 full bath, manufactured home with large living room and family room with fireplace. Open floor plan. Home is move in ready. Appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Raisin Ridge mobile home park currently monthly lot rent is $700. There is no "For Sale" sign on property.

2. 2026-04-17
   status Pending 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   1,680 sq. ft. , 3 bedroom, 2 full bath, manufactured home with large living room and family room with fireplace. Open floor plan. Home is move in ready. Appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Raisin Ridge mobile home park currently monthly lot rent is $700. There is no "For Sale" sign on property.

3. 2025-10-14
   listed $45,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   1,680 sq. ft. , 3 bedroom, 2 full bath, manufactured home with large living room and family room with fireplace. Open floor plan. Home is move in ready. Appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Raisin Ridge mobile home park currently monthly lot rent is $700. There is no "For Sale" sign on property.

4. 2025-10-14
   listed $45,000 Active 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   1,680 sq. ft. , 3 bedroom, 2 full bath, manufactured home with large living room and family room with fireplace. Open floor plan. Home is move in ready. Appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Raisin Ridge mobile home park currently monthly lot rent is $700. There is no "For Sale" sign on property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,419
• − Management: −$1,419
• − HOA: −$8,400
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $1,769
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$424
• After-tax cash flow: $1,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,437
• Composite: 30.33/100
• National rank: #6269
• State rank: #278 of 540 in MI

Livability — Raisinville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 54,460 people
• Metro: Monroe, MI
• Population (ZIP): 26,304
• Household income: $67,414
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,439 people
• By 2030: 140,033 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 128,408 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 115,024 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 87,273 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 63,110 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Romanian 8% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.7% · R 62.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.1 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.99%
• Current HPI: 126.2638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Monroe, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $45,000 REALCOMP